Guide
Fourth of July flying: better than normal, still not good
Fourth of July week ran 72.8% on time in 2026, 0.9 points better than the weeks around it. Those normal weeks are among the worst of the whole year.
In every year this site has on record, the Fourth of July week ran more punctually than the weeks around it. In 2026 the window (Wednesday 1 July to Tuesday 7 July 2026) managed 72.8% on time against 71.9% in its normal weeks, 0.9 points better.
That sounds reassuring until you look at the baseline. The normal weeks either side of the Fourth are late June and mid-July, the heart of the summer thunderstorm season. Nationally, July 2026 ran just 71.7% on time and June 74.3%, against 77.3% for the whole of September 2025 to August 2026. Beating those weeks is a low bar, and the holiday week in 2026 still finished well below the annual rate.
Both statements are true: the Fourth of July week is better than normal, and it is not good.
Four years of the holiday
During the holidayNormal weeks either side
60.0%85.0%
All US flights. Normal weeks are the two weeks either side of the window, excluding other holidays. Source: US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics, September 2025 to August 2026.
The best year was 2024, when the week ran 79.5% on time, 9.4 points better than its baseline, the biggest summer holiday improvement in the data. The 2024 page shows almost every big airport beating its own normal weeks that year. In 2023 the margin was 3.6 points and in 2025 2.6.
The 2026 week was the weakest of the four relative to its baseline. Its on-time rate barely beat normal, and cancellations went the other way: 2.68% of flights were cancelled during the window against 1.99% in the weeks around it. The site's test still counted it as a measurable holiday effect, because the average delay on late flights rose by several minutes. The 2026 page has the full record, and the overview sets the years side by side.
Why does the week tend to beat its neighbours? The holidays guide covers the general reasons. For this holiday two stand out. Business travel largely disappears for the week, likely taking with it the Monday-morning and Thursday-evening peaks at the big hubs. And the Fourth itself is one of the lightest days of the summer schedule, because few people want to spend Independence Day in an airport.
The day matters more than the week
In all four years, the Fourth itself was among the best days of the window. The schedule is thin and business traffic is absent. The weak days moved around, but in three of the four years the worst day of the window came after the holiday: in 2026 the Sunday and Monday after it were the two worst days of the week, as holidaymakers returned into a full schedule and heavy cancellations in the Northeast. In 2023 the worst day was the first of July, and in 2025 the first of July also cancelled a large share of its flights before the holiday had begun.
The pattern is consistent enough to plan around. The holiday itself is the best bet; the return days after it carry the most risk. The busiest travel days guide shows the same shape across other holidays.
The hour matters more still. In the 2026 window, flights departing between 5am and 8am ran about nine in ten on time; flights leaving between 5pm and 8pm managed under six in ten. That gap is larger than any difference between the holiday and a normal week, and it is the number I would plan the trip around. Across the whole year, nationally, the 5am–8am window runs 89.3% against 68.0% for 5pm–8pm, and in July the evening is where the thunderstorms land.
The busiest route in the country shows it. LaGuardia to O'Hare ran 67.3% on time in July 2026. Across the year its 5am to 8am departures run 84.6% on time and its 5pm to 8pm departures 48.7%. Of the route's tracked flight numbers, the first United departure of the morning, United 2389, is the most reliable and the late-afternoon United 2299 the least.
Where the week went wrong in 2026
US average 71.7%
55.0%90.0%
Source: US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics, September 2025 to August 2026.
The Northeast carried July 2026, and it carried the holiday week too. JFK in July cancelled more than one departure in ten across the month, and over the holiday window the same airports cancelled heavily: JFK, LaGuardia and Washington National. Washington National in July sits near the bottom of the chart above, alongside the Florida airports and Charlotte. Fort Lauderdale (FLL) was last for the month at 62.8%, and Miami in July ran 63.6%: over the holiday week itself Miami fell further below its normal weeks than any other big airport.
The airlines most exposed to the Northeast took the hit. JetBlue and Republic Airways, which flies regional routes for Delta, United and American from LaGuardia and Washington National, each cancelled close to one flight in ten over the 2026 holiday week. JetBlue at JFK and Republic at LaGuardia have the detail. For the month as a whole, JetBlue Airways was last at 62.2%.
US average 71.7%
55.0%85.0%
Source: US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics, September 2025 to August 2026.
Spirit is missing from that chart. Its filings stop in early May 2026, so the data has no Spirit flights in June or July, holiday week included.
The better news was in the West and in Texas. Las Vegas in July ran well above its normal weeks during the holiday, and Dallas-Fort Worth and Love Field both beat their baselines by a wide margin, although from a low starting point. Salt Lake City ran 79.3% for the month. The island routes barely noticed the holiday: Honolulu to Kahului, the busiest inter-island route, ran 87.2% on time in July.
Envoy Air led the airlines in July at 81.2%. Alaska Airlines, whose network is concentrated on the West Coast, ran 76.8%, near the top, which likely says as much about geography as about operations: July's storms and cancellations sat in the East. It also carries Hawaii now. Hawaiian is reported under its own code only until December 2025; from January 2026 the same flights, inter-island hops included, appear under Alaska's code. I caught it when the Honolulu to Kahului route split into two carrier files, and it means part of Alaska's July figure comes from the island airports that led the country that month.
How I would fly the Fourth
Fly on the Fourth. In every year on record the holiday itself was one of the two best days of the window, and its lighter schedule is the easiest to rebook onto if something goes wrong.
Do not crowd into the return. In three of four years the worst day of the window came after the holiday. Coming back on the Fourth itself, or a few days later, avoids the peak.
Take the first flight of the day, every day. The early-morning window held close to its normal-week level even in the bad years; the evening window is where the holiday week loses. With under six in ten evening departures on time in 2026, I would not book anything after 5pm that week.
Avoid the Northeast connection. A July connection through JFK, LaGuardia or Washington National risked a cancellation, not just a delay, in 2026. Connect through Salt Lake City if you can, and wherever you connect, do it before midday. The connection risk tool sets the buffer for the hub you choose.
Check the route, not the holiday. The holiday effect is a few points. The difference between routes, and between morning and evening on the same route, is ten or twenty. Use compare or the route's own page before choosing a flight, and read the summer thunderstorm guide for why July afternoons fail.
The Fourth of July week by year: 2023 · 2024 · 2025 · 2026 · JFK in July · LaGuardia in July · Las Vegas in July