Holiday travel
Fourth of July week flight delays
1 to 7 July, the week around Independence Day.
Based on 2026 and earlier data. 2027 results expected around September 2027. Historical statistics, not a forecast and not live status.
The next Fourth of July week runs from Thursday 1 July 2027 to Wednesday 7 July 2027. This page does not forecast it: it is based on 2026 data, the most recent Fourth of July week with complete figures, and on every year back to 2023. 2027 results are expected around September 2027, since the US DOT releases on-time data roughly two months after each month ends.
The data backs up Fourth of July week's reputation: 2 of its last 3 years showed a measurable effect. Still, 4 years ran more punctually than normal, so the effect cuts both ways.
There are 4 years of Fourth of July week in the data, from 2023 to 2026, and 3 of them cleared the measurable-effect test.
Key figures for 2026
On time, 2026
72.8%
Normal weeks: 71.9%
Avg delay
84 min
Normal weeks: 77 min
Cancelled
2.68%
Normal weeks: 1.99%
Flights
138,168
Wednesday 1 July to Tuesday 7 July 2026
Against the two weeks either side, the on-time rate moved +3.6 points in 2023, +9.4 points in 2024, +2.6 points in 2025 and +0.9 points in 2026, an average of +4.1. Average delay moved −4 minutes in 2023, −9 minutes in 2024, 0 minutes in 2025 and +7 minutes in 2026, and cancellations −1.60 points in 2023, −2.07 points in 2024, −0.97 points in 2025 and +0.69 points in 2026.
From 128,829 flights in 2023 to 138,168 in 2026, the holiday schedule grew 7%. Per day, 2026 ran −3% against its normal weeks, 19,738 flights against 20,425.
For anyone connecting: 10.1% in 2023 (normally 12.0%), 7.3% in 2024 (normally 12.4%), 11.1% in 2025 (normally 12.5%) and 11.3% in 2026 (normally 11.0%) of arrivals ran an hour or more late.
Year on year
Every Fourth of July week in the data
| Year | Flights | On time | Normal weeks | Change | Cancelled | Normal weeks |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 128,829 | 73.9% | 70.3% | +3.6 | 1.62% | 3.22% |
| 2024 | 136,807 | 79.5% | 70.1% | +9.4 | 0.84% | 2.91% |
| 2025, close to normal | 137,453 | 72.7% | 70.1% | +2.6 | 1.65% | 2.62% |
| 2026 | 138,168 | 72.8% | 71.9% | +0.9 | 2.68% | 1.99% |
“Normal weeks” are the two weeks either side of the holiday, leaving out other holiday periods. Change is in percentage points.
Patterns
What repeats from year to year
2025 was the hardest Fourth of July week to fly, 72.7% on time, and 2024 the easiest at 79.5%: a spread of 6.8 points between the best and worst years.
Schedules peaked on Thursday 6 July 2023 (19,616 flights), Sunday 7 July 2024 (21,155 flights), Monday 7 July 2025 (21,499 flights) and Monday 6 July 2026 (21,225 flights).
Low points by year: Saturday 1 July 2023 (68.8%), Sunday 7 July 2024 (69.6%), Monday 7 July 2025 (67.6%) and Monday 6 July 2026 (65.9%). In 2 of 4 years that was the last day of the window, when the return rush and any lingering disruption meet.
On average across 2023, 2024, 2025 and 2026, day 4 of the window ran best at 83.6% on time and day 7 of the window worst at 69.8%. Fourth of July week moves across the week from year to year, so the day's position in the window is used instead of its name.
Early or late matters: 5am–8am departures averaged 90.3% on time across 2023, 2024, 2025 and 2026, 5pm–8pm departures 60.4%. That 30.0 points gap is bigger than the holiday effect itself.
2026 was the year for cancellations, 2.68% of scheduled flights and 10.48% at New York (JFK); the calmest was 2024 at 0.84%.
Airports and airlines
Who handles Fourth of July week best
Averaged across 2023, 2024, 2025 and 2026, the airports that handled the holiday best against their own normal weeks were Atlanta (ATL, +7.2), Dallas (DAL, +6.8) and Orlando (MCO, +6.4); the ones that struggled most were Miami (MIA, −0.5), San Juan (SJU, +0.8) and Houston (IAH, +0.9).
Each year one airport took the biggest hit against its own normal weeks: Jacksonville (JAX, −2.6 points) in 2023, Honolulu (HNL, +3.6 points) in 2024, Miami (MIA, −9.6 points) in 2025 and Miami (MIA, −12.5 points) in 2026.
Over the holiday across 2023, 2024, 2025 and 2026, JetBlue Airways was the least reliable large carrier at 66.2% on time on average, against 80.5% for Delta Air Lines.
Against their own normal weeks, Republic Airways was hit hardest by the holiday on average, +2.2 points, while Delta Air Lines fared best at +7.1.
Top of the carrier table each year: Hawaiian Airlines in 2023 (88.8%), Hawaiian Airlines in 2024 (91.5%), Hawaiian Airlines in 2025 (85.2%) and Envoy Air in 2026 (83.1%).
No route stayed among the five busiest in every year, which shows how much the holiday schedule shifts from one year to the next.
What to do with this
Planning Fourth of July week 2027
Planning Fourth of July week 2027? On the record so far: fly day 4 of the window if the dates allow; take a 5am–8am departure; and allow more connection time at Miami (MIA).
On time means arriving less than 15 minutes after the scheduled gate time. Average delay counts delayed flights only; cancellations are a share of every scheduled flight. A holiday is compared with the two weeks either side of it, leaving out days that belong to other holidays. The measurable-effect test asks for 3 points of on-time rate, 5 minutes of average delay or 2 points of cancellations; airports, routes and carriers need 500 flights in the window to be ranked. The US DOT publishes on-time data about two months after the month it covers.
Related
Where to go next
- Fourth of July week 202373.9%
- Fourth of July week 202479.5%
- Fourth of July week 202572.7%
- Fourth of July week 202672.8%
- Every US travel holiday
- The holidays that fly better than a normal week
- The busiest US travel days, and what they cost in punctuality
- How the figures are computed
Holiday windows are fixed by rule each year. See every window.
Source: US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics, on-time performance data, September 2025 to August 2026. Last updated ; recomputed monthly. How this data is collected.