Guide
The last flight of the day: why the final departure is the riskiest
Departures after 8pm ran 70.1% on time, ahead of the 68.0% evening window. At Dallas Love Field they fell to 53.5%. Where the late flight recovers, and where it keeps falling.
Nationally, departures between 8pm and 5am arrived on time 70.1% of the time over September 2025 to August 2026, a little better than the 68.0% managed by the 5pm–8pm window before them. That recovery is real, and the red-eye guide explains most of it: overnight flights leave into empty airspace. But the 8pm–5am window contains two very different kinds of flight, and one of them is the riskiest seat on the schedule.
The first kind is the red-eye, the long overnight flight east. The second is the last departure of the evening, the 9pm or 10pm flight on a short route, flown by an aircraft that has been in the air since dawn. On-time rates tell part of the story. The rest is what happens when that flight fails.
There is nothing after it.
Two late windows, two shapes
5pm–8pm8pm–5am
45.0%90.0%
On-time percentages for departures scheduled 5pm–8pm and 8pm–5am local time. Source: US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics, September 2025 to August 2026.
At the top of this chart the late window keeps falling. Albuquerque International Sunport departures ran 73.0% on time between 5pm and 8pm and 63.1% after 8pm. Charleston fell from 69.7% to 62.5%, Omaha from 70.8% to 64.7%, San Antonio from 71.0% to 64.0%. Dallas Love Field had the lowest late-window figure of any airport with a page: 53.5%.
These are airports with almost no red-eyes. Their flights after 8pm are the last departures of the day, mostly short hops back to a hub or on to the next city in an aircraft's rotation, and only a small slice of each airport's schedule. At Albuquerque the late window is a few flights a night. Each of them is the end of a chain of five or six legs, and it carries every minute that chain lost. At airports like these, the late window is the figure I trust least, because it rests on the fewest flights.
At the bottom of the chart the late window recovers. San Diego departures ran 67.9% on time in the evening and 75.6% after 8pm. Minneapolis went from 71.3% to 77.0%, Washington Dulles from 72.4% to 78.3%, and Las Vegas from 66.9% to 72.0%. These airports send a large share of their late flying on red-eyes and long evening departures, which leave after the day's congestion has cleared and fly into quiet airspace.
Albuquerque (ABQ)83.1% overall
Charleston (CHS)78.9% overall
Dallas (DAL)72.6% overall
San Diego (SAN)76.3% overall
Minneapolis (MSP)79.2% overall
Washington (IAD)81.0% overall
All panels share one scale. Windows run 5am, 8am, 11am, 2pm, 5pm and 8pm to 5am. Source: US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics, September 2025 to August 2026.
The small multiples show the difference in shape. Albuquerque, Charleston and Love Field slide all day and finish at their lowest point. San Diego, Minneapolis and Dulles slide until the evening, then turn back up. The airports where departure time matters most guide ranks the whole curve; here only the last two windows matter.
The airline decides which kind of late flight you are on
5pm–8pm8pm–5am
50.0%85.0%
On-time percentages for each airline's departures scheduled 5pm–8pm and 8pm–5am. Source: US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics, September 2025 to August 2026.
Southwest is the clearest case of the last-rotation problem. It flies few red-eyes, so its departures after 8pm are overwhelmingly the final legs of aircraft that started at dawn, and they ran 62.5% on time, a shade below its evening window and about thirty points behind its 93.4% first wave. Allegiant follows the same pattern at 59.3%.
United sits at the other end. Its late departures ran 75.0% on time against 69.2% in the evening, the biggest recovery of any airline, consistent with a late schedule weighted towards red-eyes and long evening flights east.
The split is sharper still at individual stations.
5pm–8pm8pm–5am
45.0%85.0%
On-time percentages for departures scheduled 5pm–8pm and 8pm–5am. Source: US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics, September 2025 to August 2026.
Southwest at Orlando and Southwest at Love Field both fell further after 8pm, as did American at O'Hare. The same American Airlines, flying out of Los Angeles or San Francisco after 8pm, recovered by ten points or more, likely because most of those flights are red-eyes to its eastern hubs.
Why the last flight is the riskiest one to be on
A late departure that runs late is an inconvenience. A last departure that fails is an overnight stay, and three mechanisms make that failure more likely late in the evening.
Nothing behind it. Earlier in the day, a cancelled flight moves its passengers to the next departure on the route. After the last one there is no next departure until morning, and on a full evening the morning flights may already be sold.
Crews run out of time. Pilots and flight attendants work to legal duty limits. A crew that has absorbed a day of delays can reach its limit before the last leg, and if no reserve crew is available the flight cancels rather than runs late. This is general to the industry rather than visible in the data, but it is why late-evening delays turn into cancellations.
The aircraft may never arrive. The last departure depends on an inbound aircraft that has flown all day. When an airline thins a disrupted schedule, dropping the final leg of a rotation strands the fewest passengers downline, which makes it an easy choice to cancel.
The cancellation figures on this site's holiday pages break cancellations out by departure window, and in the normal weeks around this year's holidays the evening and overnight windows cancelled noticeably more flights than the morning ones.
What it looks like on a real route
On the Atlanta to Orlando route, Delta's latest regular evening departure (DL 1162) actually beats the route's late-afternoon flights on time. But if it cancels, the next regular Delta departure on the route is the following morning. On Seattle to Portland, Alaska's late-night flight (AS 498) runs well behind the SkyWest departures earlier in the day and cancels more often. On the JFK to Los Angeles route, American's 9pm departure (AA 300) is the last of more than twenty regular nonstops on the route, and it cancels more often than the 6am.
How I treat the last departure
Never make the last flight your only plan. If the last departure of the day is the only way to arrive tonight, the trip has no margin. Book an earlier flight, or accept that you might arrive tomorrow. At 53.5%, I would not book the last Love Field departure for anything that has to happen tonight.
At a falling airport, move earlier; at a recovering one, a red-eye is fine. From Albuquerque, Charleston or Love Field the evening departure is already the weakest window and the late one is worse. From San Diego, Las Vegas or Dulles, a late departure is often a red-eye that runs better than the evening.
Do not connect onto the last departure. A connection that feeds the final flight of the day has no second chance. The connection buffer guide shows how much time a connection needs; onto a last flight, add more.
Check the airline, not just the hour. A 9pm Southwest departure and a 10pm American red-eye sit in the same window and behave very differently. The best time to fly tool shows the windows for your route.
Check the late windows: Dallas Love Field (DAL) · Albuquerque (ABQ) · Charleston (CHS) · San Diego (SAN) · Minneapolis (MSP) · Best time to fly tool