Route reliability record
ORD→JAX
Chicago to Jacksonville
- Flights
- 2,172
- Period
- September 2025 to August 2026
- Distance
- 864 mi
- Carriers
- 6
This route sits in the middle of the pack with a C. Close to three flights in four arrive on time by the DOT's definition, 4 points worse than the national rate of 77.3%. The late ones land a little over an hour behind schedule. That rests on 2,172 ORD to JAX flights, of which Republic Airways flew 365 at 80.7% on time.
Best time to fly ORD to JAX: a 5am–8am departure, ideally on a Tuesday. Flights in that window arrived on time 84.3% of the time and Tuesday flights 78.4%, against 73.2% for the route overall.
Republic Airways is the most reliable of the three carriers covered here at 80.7% on time across 365 flights.
Key figures
On time
73.2%
Arrivals under 15 minutes late, of 2,138 completed flights
Avg delay
78 min
Across delayed arrivals only, not all flights
Cancelled
1.29%
National rate is 1.89%
Best carrier
Republic
80.7% on time across 365 flights
These figures cover 2,172 flights between September 2025 and August 2026. Beyond the headline rate, 11.8% of arrivals land a full hour or more behind schedule, against 8.3% nationally.
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Carrier by carrier
Which airline is most reliable on ORD to JAX
The choice of carrier is not cosmetic here. Republic Airways arrives on time 80.7% of the time; American Airlines manages 63.8%. Sample sizes sit next to every figure, because a two-point gap across 433 flights means less than a ten-point one.
| Airline | Flights | On time | Avg delay | Cancelled | Grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PSA Airlinesthin sample | 1 | 100.0% | — | 0.00% | A+ |
| Republic Airways | 365 | 80.7% | 59 min | 1.92% | B |
| United Airlines | 895 | 75.0% | 83 min | 0.45% | B+ |
| Envoy Airthin sample | 260 | 73.0% | 55 min | 0.38% | C+ |
| SkyWest Airlinesthin sample | 218 | 71.1% | 63 min | 1.83% | C |
| American Airlines | 433 | 63.8% | 97 min | 2.77% | D |
The spread between Republic and American is 17 points, wide enough that it should decide the booking. On a hundred trips that is 17 more arrivals inside the on-time window.
Flight by flight
Flights on ORD to JAX
The flight numbers below flew this route at least 250 times in the period, busiest first. Each has its own record, with its schedule and delay causes.
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Best ways to make this trip
The most reliable ways to fly Chicago to Jacksonville
Every airline on this route, ranked by how often a scheduled flight actually operated and arrived on time, with its best departure time and most punctual flight number. No nearby airport pair beat these.
| Option | Airline | Success | On time | Cancelled | Best departure | Most punctual flight |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. ORD → JAXChicago to Jacksonville | Republic Airways | 79.2% | 80.7% | 1.92% | 5am–8am, Sat | — |
| 2. ORD → JAXChicago to Jacksonville | United Airlines | 74.7% | 75.0% | 0.45% | 5am–8am, Fri | UA 2443 18:19 |
| 3. ORD → JAXChicago to Jacksonville | American Airlines | 62.0% | 63.8% | 2.77% | 5am–8am, Wed | — |
Success is the share of scheduled flights that operated and arrived less than 15 minutes late, so a cancelled flight counts against it. “(route)” means the best time comes from every carrier on the route rather than this airline alone.
Departure window
The best time of day to leave
Departure time matters more here than the choice of carrier. The gap between the best and worst window is 21 points, against 17 points between the best and worst carrier.
- 5am–8am386 flights84.3%
- 8am–11am454 flights79.4%
- 11am–2pm295 flights74.7%
- 2pm–5pm335 flights70.2%
- 5pm–8pm638 flights63.4%
- 8pm–5am64 flights66.1%
Scale runs 55% to 90%.
The 5pm–8pm window is where this operation falls apart: 63.4% on time, against 84.3% for the 5am–8am slot. By evening the aircraft flying these rotations have absorbed a full day of small delays and there is no slack left to recover in. The 5pm–8pm window is the busiest, with 638 flights scheduled in it.
Explore
Filter ORD to JAX by airline, time, month and day
Pick a breakdown and a carrier. The dashed mark on each row is the same slice for every US flight.
On ORD to JAX, the best departure window is 5am–8am at 84.3% on time and the worst is 5pm–8pm at 63.4%, a wide gap of 20.9 points. All US flights leaving 5am–8am ran 89.3%.
- 5–8am84.3%
- 8–11am79.4%
- 11am–2pm74.7%
- 2–5pm70.2%
- 5–8pm63.4%
- 8pm–5am66.1%
best all US flightsScale 55% to 95%.
Across the year
When delays peak on this route
This route's year swings by 24 points from best month to worst, which is wide. An annual average tells you very little about the week you are actually flying, so read the strip rather than the headline if your dates are fixed.
August is the worst month at 59.7% on time, 24 points below April, the best at 83.5%. Summer afternoon convection and peak-season schedules land on the same weeks every year, so this is a pattern you can book around rather than a run of bad luck. August was the busiest month here, with 211 flights.
Across the week, Tuesday is the strongest day at 78.4% on time and Sunday the weakest at 66.6%, a spread of 12 points.
Delay causes
Why this route gets delayed
Late-arriving aircraft accounts for 53% of the 45,000 delay minutes carriers reported here, and the remaining four split what is left.
- 53%Late-arriving aircraft
- 23%Carrier
- 18%National Airspace System
- 6%Extreme weather
- 0%Security
53% of delay minutes trace back to a late-arriving aircraft, meaning the plane was already behind before it got here. Across 45,000 reported delay minutes here, that single category outweighs weather by 9 to one. The split is drawn from 44,979 reported delay minutes.
The practical consequence: the 5am–8am departure is the one that starts clean. Its aircraft has no earlier leg to be late from, which is exactly why that window shows 84.3% on time here.
Cancellations sit at 1.29% against a national 1.89%, which is ordinary. Diversions add another 0.28%.
Connections and stage length
What a delay here actually costs
11.8% of arrivals land a full hour or more behind schedule, against 8.3% nationally. Ninety minutes is the honest minimum for a connection here, and two hours if the onward flight is on a separate ticket.
The 864 miles between these two airports put this in the middle of the US network, around two and a half to three hours of block time. That is enough cruise to absorb a ten-minute late pushback and not enough to absorb thirty.
The return leg is a different operation and performs like one: it runs 76.9% on time across 2,172 flights, 4 points above this direction. Departure banks, aircraft rotations and the congestion at each end all differ, so scoring the two directions together would average away a real 4 points of difference.
The sample behind these figures is 2,172 flights, enough that the headline rate is stable to within roughly a point. The hour-block and month splits divide that further, so read the thinner bars with more caution than the headline.
Work out the risk of missing a connection in JAX after this flight
What to do with this
Booking this route
Put together: the calendar is the biggest lever here, not the carrier or the hour. April runs 83.5% on time and August 59.7%, a swing of 24 points. If the dates move at all, move them out of August before you think about anything else. 2,138 completed flights over 12 months sit behind that.
Common questions
ORD to JAX questions
How often is ORD to JAX delayed?
About one flight in four arrives at least 15 minutes late, which is the Department of Transportation's definition of a delayed arrival. That works out to 26.8% of the 2,172 flights in this analysis, against 22.7% nationally. Delayed flights are late by a little over an hour on average.
Which airline is most reliable on ORD to JAX?
Republic Airways leads at 80.7% on time across 365 flights. American Airlines is at the other end on 63.8%, a gap of 17 points. Sample size matters as much as the percentage: a rate built from a few hundred flights moves around far more than one built from ten thousand.
What time of day has the fewest delays on ORD to JAX?
The 5am–8am departure window is the strongest at 84.3% on time. The 5pm–8pm window is the weakest at 63.4%, 21 points behind. Later departures inherit delays from earlier flights the same aircraft has already flown, which is why the curve slopes the way it does.
How bad are August delays on ORD to JAX?
August is the weakest month at 59.7% on time, compared with 83.5% in April. Across the year that is 24 points between the best and worst months. Moving flexible dates out of that month is one of the few things that reliably helps.
Related
Where to go next
- JAX to ORD — the return legseparate record
- Chicago O'Hare International (ORD) delay statistics
- Jacksonville International (JAX) delay statistics
- Republic Airways on ORD to JAX80.7%
- United Airlines on ORD to JAX75.0%
- Envoy Air on ORD to JAX73.0%
- SkyWest Airlines on ORD to JAX71.1%
- American Airlines on ORD to JAX63.8%
- ORD to LGA, a related route66.6%
- ATL to JAX, a related route75.1%
- ORD to BOS, a related route66.6%
- PSA Airlines on-time record100.0%
- Republic Airways on-time record80.7%
- United Airlines on-time record75.0%
- Same route, different airline: where the carrier you pick matters most
- Why the first flight of the morning is statistically safest
Direction matters. ORD to JAX and JAX to ORD are scored separately because they are separate operations, with different departure banks and different aircraft. Compare the return leg.
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Source: US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics, on-time performance data, September 2025 to August 2026. Last updated ; recomputed monthly. How this data is collected.