Carrier route record

YXORD→JAX

Republic Airways · Chicago to Jacksonville

Flights: 317
Period: July 2025 to June 2026
Share of route: 15%
Carriers: 6

Historical statistics for July 2025 to June 2026, not live status. For today’s flights, check with Republic Airways.

Republic on ORD to JAX lands a B, 3 points better than the national rate of 77.6%. About one flight in five arrives 15 minutes late or worse, and those flights are late by about an hour on average. That is a workable record, not a spotless one. That rests on 317 flights. The strongest carrier on the route with a full sample, United Airlines, flew 893 at 73.6% on time.

The US average over the same twelve months is 77.6%, so there is little to separate Republic on ORD to JAX from the country as a whole. The variation that matters here is internal: which carrier, and what time of day.

On time

80.3%

Arrivals under 15 minutes late, of 310 completed flights

Avg delay

58 min

Across delayed arrivals only, not all flights

Cancelled

2.21%

National rate is 1.81%

Whole route

72.7%

Every carrier on ORD to JAX, 2,062 flights

These figures cover 317 flights between July 2025 and June 2026. The median arrival is 9 minutes early, which is the part an average hides: most flights here are fine, and the on-time rate is decided by a tail of badly late ones. On-time means under 15 minutes late, the DOT's own threshold.

Carrier by carrier

Republic against every carrier on ORD to JAX

Republic flew 317 of the 2,062 flights on ORD to JAX, about 15% of it. Its 80.3% on time is 8 points better than the route as a whole, which runs 72.7%. Ranked by on-time rate it is number two of six carriers on the route, where the range runs from PSA at 100.0% to American at 62.3%. Three of those carriers flew fewer than 365 flights here, so treat their positions as rough.

The choice of carrier is not cosmetic here. United Airlines arrives on time 73.6% of the time; American Airlines manages 62.3%. Sample sizes sit next to every figure, because a two-point gap across 464 flights means less than a ten-point one.

On-time performance by carrier on ORD to JAX
Airline	Flights	On time	Avg delay	Cancelled	Grade
PSA Airlinesthin sample	1	100.0%	—	0.00%	A+
Republic Airways (this page)thin sample	317	80.3%	58 min	2.21%	B
SkyWest Airlinesthin sample	150	77.9%	61 min	1.33%	B
Envoy Airthin sample	237	75.8%	56 min	0.42%	B+
United Airlines	893	73.6%	82 min	0.45%	C+
American Airlines	464	62.3%	102 min	2.59%	D

United leads American by 11 points. Real, but small enough that a better departure time on the weaker carrier can outweigh it.

Departure window

When Republic runs best on this route

Departure time matters more here than the choice of carrier. The gap between the best and worst window is 23 points, against 11 points between the best and worst carrier. Each bar is the on-time rate for flights scheduled inside that window.

5am–8am39 flights97.4%
8am–11am101 flights80.2%
11am–2pm32 flights74.2%
2pm–5pm101 flights77.3%
5pm–8pm—
8pm–5am44 flights76.2%

Scale runs 65% to 100%. Rows with fewer than 30 flights show a dash.

The weak window here is the middle of the day, not the evening: 11am–2pm runs 74.2% on time against 97.4% for 5am–8am. That shape usually means a departure bank rather than an accumulating delay, so the recovery later in the afternoon is real rather than noise. The 8am–11am window is the busiest, with 101 flights scheduled in it.

Across the year

Republic on ORD to JAX through the year

Jul–Sep 20257 flights—
Oct–Dec 202568 flights73.1%
Jan–Mar 2026106 flights78.6%
Apr–Jun 2026136 flights84.2%

Scale runs 65% to 90%. Rows with fewer than 30 flights show a dash.

Monthly volumes are too low here to break the year into twelve reliable readings. What the twelve-month total says is 80.3% on time across 317 flights.

Republic on ORD to JAX did not run the same all year. Its best quarter was Apr–Jun 2026 at 84.2% on time and its weakest Oct–Dec 2025 at 73.1%, a swing of 11 points on roughly 106 flights a quarter. The twelve-month rate averages over that, so if you are flying in a weak quarter the quarter's own figure is the better guide.

Across the week, Saturday is the strongest day at 91.9% on time and Monday the weakest at 65.1%. 27 points is a smaller lever than departure hour, but it is free.

Delay causes

Why Republic runs late on this route

One category carries most of the weight here. Late-arriving aircraft accounts for 51% of the 3,518 delay minutes carriers reported, and the remaining four split what is left. The split is by minutes rather than by flights, so a few very long delays count for as much as many short ones.

Late-arriving aircraft
51%
National Airspace System
22%
Carrier
17%
Extreme weather
8%
Security
2%

51% of delay minutes trace back to a late-arriving aircraft, meaning the plane was already behind before it got here. That is a cascade, and cascades start small and grow through the day. Across 3,518 reported delay minutes here, that single category outweighs weather by 7 to one. It is the strongest argument for booking the first departure of the morning, when the aircraft has been sitting at the gate overnight with nothing to inherit. The split is drawn from 3,518 reported delay minutes.

The practical consequence: the 5am–8am departure is the one that starts clean. Its aircraft has no earlier leg to be late from, which is exactly why that window shows 97.4% on time here.

Cancellations sit at 2.21% against a national 1.81%, which is ordinary. Diversions add another 0.00%.

Connections and stage length

What a delay here costs

6.8% of arrivals land an hour or more late, close to the national 8.1%. That is the figure that decides a connection, and it says a 60 to 75 minute layover is reasonable here while anything under 45 minutes is a bet. Most delays on this route last about an hour, which a normal layover absorbs.

The 864 miles between these two airports put this in the middle of the US network, around two and a half to three hours of block time. That is enough cruise to absorb a ten-minute late pushback and not enough to absorb thirty. It is also long enough that the aircraft usually flies three or four legs a day rather than six, which slows how fast delay compounds.

The return leg runs 79.3% on time across 317 flights, within about a point of this direction. The two legs are scored separately because they usually differ; on this city pair they happen not to.

One caution: this is a thin sample. 317 flights over twelve months is enough to clear this site's floor but not enough to pin the rate down tightly, and a single bad week moves it by more than a point. Treat the grade as a rough reading.

What to do with this

Booking Republic on ORD to JAX

Put together: treat all of this as provisional. 317 flights over twelve months is enough to clear this site's floor and not enough to be confident to better than a couple of points. The 80.3% headline is the most reliable number on the page; the hour and month splits below it are built on a few dozen flights each. 310 completed flights over 12 months sit behind that.

Where to go next

Source: US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics, on-time performance data, July 2025 to June 2026. Last updated 15 September 2026; recomputed monthly. How this data is collected.

Key figures