Carrier route record
YXORD→JAX
Republic Airways · Chicago to Jacksonville
- Flights
- 365
- Period
- September 2025 to August 2026
- Share of route
- 17%
- Carriers
- 6
Historical statistics for September 2025 to August 2026, not live status. For today’s flights, check with Republic Airways.
Republic on ORD to JAX lands a B, 3 points better than the national rate of 77.3%. About one flight in five arrives 15 minutes late or worse, and those flights are late by about an hour on average. That rests on 365 flights. The strongest carrier on the route with a full sample, United Airlines, flew 895 at 75.0% on time.
The US average over the same twelve months is 77.3%, so there is little to separate Republic on ORD to JAX from the country as a whole. The variation that matters here is internal: which carrier, and what time of day.
Key figures
On time
80.7%
Arrivals under 15 minutes late, of 358 completed flights
Avg delay
59 min
Across delayed arrivals only, not all flights
Cancelled
1.92%
National rate is 1.89%
Whole route
73.2%
Every carrier on ORD to JAX, 2,172 flights
These figures cover 365 flights between September 2025 and August 2026. The median arrival is 10 minutes early, which is the part an average hides: most flights here are fine, and the on-time rate is decided by a tail of badly late ones. On-time means under 15 minutes late, the DOT's own threshold.
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Carrier by carrier
Republic against every carrier on ORD to JAX
Republic flew 365 of the 2,172 flights on ORD to JAX, about 17% of it. Its 80.7% on time is 8 points better than the route as a whole, which runs 73.2%. Ranked by on-time rate it is number two of six carriers on the route, where the range runs from PSA at 100.0% to American at 63.8%. Three of those carriers flew fewer than 365 flights here, so treat their positions as rough.
The choice of carrier is not cosmetic here. United Airlines arrives on time 75.0% of the time; American Airlines manages 63.8%. Sample sizes sit next to every figure, because a two-point gap across 433 flights means less than a ten-point one.
| Airline | Flights | On time | Avg delay | Cancelled | Grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PSA Airlinesthin sample | 1 | 100.0% | — | 0.00% | A+ |
| Republic Airways (this page) | 365 | 80.7% | 59 min | 1.92% | B |
| United Airlines | 895 | 75.0% | 83 min | 0.45% | B+ |
| Envoy Airthin sample | 260 | 73.0% | 55 min | 0.38% | C+ |
| SkyWest Airlinesthin sample | 218 | 71.1% | 63 min | 1.83% | C |
| American Airlines | 433 | 63.8% | 97 min | 2.77% | D |
United leads American by 11 points. Real, but small enough that a better departure time on the weaker carrier can outweigh it.
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Departure window
When Republic runs best on this route
Departure time matters more here than the choice of carrier. The gap between the best and worst window is 23 points, against 11 points between the best and worst carrier.
- 5am–8am39 flights97.4%
- 8am–11am149 flights81.2%
- 11am–2pm32 flights74.2%
- 2pm–5pm101 flights77.3%
- 5pm–8pm—
- 8pm–5am44 flights76.2%
Scale runs 65% to 100%. Rows with fewer than 30 flights show a dash.
The weak window here is the middle of the day, not the evening: 11am–2pm runs 74.2% on time against 97.4% for 5am–8am. That shape usually means a departure bank rather than an accumulating delay, so the recovery later in the afternoon is real rather than noise. The 8am–11am window is the busiest, with 149 flights scheduled in it.
Across the year
Republic on ORD to JAX through the year
- Oct–Dec 202568 flights73.1%
- Jan–Mar 2026106 flights78.6%
- Apr–Jun 2026136 flights84.2%
- Jul–Sep 202655 flights85.5%
Scale runs 65% to 90%.
Monthly volumes are too low here to break the year into twelve reliable readings. What the twelve-month total says is 80.7% on time across 365 flights.
Republic on ORD to JAX did not run the same all year. Its best quarter was Jul–Sep 2026 at 85.5% on time and its weakest Oct–Dec 2025 at 73.1%, a swing of 12 points on roughly 91 flights a quarter. The twelve-month rate averages over that, so if you are flying in a weak quarter the quarter's own figure is the better guide.
Across the week, Saturday is the strongest day at 90.9% on time and Friday the weakest at 67.9%, a spread of 23 points.
Arrival by arrival
How late Republic on ORD to JAX runs when it is late
Republic on ORD to JAX often beats the schedule: 143 of 358 completed flights, 40%, arrived 15 minutes or more early. The 69 late arrivals split 25 under half an hour, 19 between 30 and 60 minutes, and 25 an hour or more.
- 15+ min early143 flights39.9%
- Within 15 min146 flights40.8%
- 15–29 min late25 flights7.0%
- 30–59 min late19 flights5.3%
- 1–2 hours late19 flights5.3%
- 2+ hours late6 flights1.7%
Scale runs 0% to 100%.
Share of 358 completed flights by arrival against schedule.
14 of 63 late departures made up the time and arrived on time, 22% of them. In the other direction, 20 flights left on time yet arrived 15 minutes late or more, so that delay built up after pushback: in the air, in a holding pattern or on the ground at JAX.
The worst days
Worst days for Republic on ORD to JAX
The latest arrival of the period was on 30 November 2025, 5 hours 15 minutes behind schedule; most of its delay minutes were filed as a late-arriving aircraft. The same cause led on three of the five worst days.
| Date | Arrived late by | Largest filed cause |
|---|---|---|
| 30 November 2025 | 5 hours 15 minutes | Late-arriving aircraft |
| 12 August 2026 | 3 hours 10 minutes | Extreme weather |
| 19 May 2026 | 2 hours 28 minutes | Late-arriving aircraft |
| 29 December 2025 | 2 hours 10 minutes | Extreme weather |
| 24 April 2026 | 2 hours 9 minutes | Late-arriving aircraft |
Delay causes
Why Republic runs late on this route
Late-arriving aircraft accounts for 47% of the 4,091 delay minutes carriers reported here, and the remaining four split what is left.
- 47%Late-arriving aircraft
- 23%National Airspace System
- 17%Carrier
- 12%Extreme weather
- 1%Security
Extreme weather accounts for 12% of delay minutes, well above the single-digit share typical across the system. Weather delays are lumpy: they arrive as whole bad days rather than as a steady drag, so the monthly strip above is the more useful view of the risk. The national share is 6%, so this operation carries roughly 2.0 times the usual weather exposure. The split is drawn from 4,091 reported delay minutes.
47% of delay minutes trace back to a late-arriving aircraft, meaning the plane was already behind before it got here. Across 4,091 reported delay minutes here, that single category outweighs weather by 4 to one.
Cancellations sit at 1.92% against a national 1.89%, which is ordinary. Diversions add another 0.00%.
Connections and stage length
What a delay here costs
7.0% of arrivals land an hour or more late, close to the national 8.3%, so a 60 to 75 minute layover is reasonable here while anything under 45 minutes is a bet. Most delays on this route last about an hour, which a normal layover absorbs.
The 864 miles between these two airports put this in the middle of the US network, around two and a half to three hours of block time. That is enough cruise to absorb a ten-minute late pushback and not enough to absorb thirty.
The return leg runs 78.0% on time across 365 flights, within 3 points of this direction. The two legs are scored separately because they usually differ; on this city pair they happen not to.
One caution: this is a thin sample. 365 flights over twelve months is enough to clear this site's floor but not enough to pin the rate down tightly, and a single bad week moves it by more than a point. Treat the grade as a rough reading.
What to do with this
Booking Republic on ORD to JAX
Put together: treat all of this as provisional. 365 flights over twelve months is enough to clear this site's floor and not enough to be confident to better than a couple of points. The 80.7% headline is the most reliable number on the page; the hour and month splits below it are built on a few dozen flights each. 358 completed flights over 12 months sit behind that.
Related
Where to go next
- ORD to JAX, every carrier
- Republic on JAX to ORD, the return leg
- United Airlines on ORD to JAX75.0%
- Envoy Air on ORD to JAX73.0%
- SkyWest Airlines on ORD to JAX71.1%
- American Airlines on ORD to JAX63.8%
- Republic Airways network-wide record
- Chicago O'Hare International (ORD) delay statistics
- Jacksonville International (JAX) delay statistics
- Why the first flight of the morning is statistically safest
- Same route, different airline: where the carrier you pick matters most
Source: US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics, on-time performance data, September 2025 to August 2026. Last updated ; recomputed monthly. How this data is collected.