Route reliability record
ROC→DCA
Rochester to Washington
- Flights
- 1,033
- Period
- September 2025 to August 2026
- Distance
- 296 mi
- Carriers
- 3
This route carries a cancellation problem, not just a delay problem: 6.7% of scheduled flights never operate, against 1.9% nationally. Of the ones that do fly, about two flights in three arrive on time, worth a C− overall. The punctuality figure counts only flights that actually departed, so it flatters an operation that cancels this often. That rests on 1,033 ROC to DCA flights, with a median arrival 2 minutes early.
Best time to fly ROC to DCA: a 5am–8am departure, ideally on a Saturday. Flights in that window arrived on time 89.7% of the time and Saturday flights 75.5%, against 67.0% for the route overall.
The national on-time rate over the same period is 77.3%, so this route runs 10 points behind the country as a whole. Across a thousand flights that is about 103 extra late arrivals.
Key figures
On time
67.0%
Arrivals under 15 minutes late, of 961 completed flights
Avg delay
110 min
Across delayed arrivals only, not all flights
Cancelled
6.68%
National rate is 1.89%
Best carrier
PSA
63.5% on time across 820 flights
These figures cover 1,033 flights between September 2025 and August 2026. Beyond the headline rate, 15.3% of arrivals land a full hour or more behind schedule, against 8.3% nationally.
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Carrier by carrier
Which airline is most reliable on ROC to DCA
Only one carrier clears this site's 365-flight floor here, so there is no comparison to draw. The table below is the full picture.
| Airline | Flights | On time | Avg delay | Cancelled | Grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Envoy Airthin sample | 58 | 84.5% | 55 min | 0.00% | B+ |
| Republic Airwaysthin sample | 155 | 78.5% | 85 min | 6.45% | B− |
| PSA Airlines | 820 | 63.5% | 115 min | 7.20% | D− |
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Best ways to make this trip
The most reliable ways to fly Rochester to Washington
Every airline on this route and on the routes between nearby airports, ranked by how often a scheduled flight actually operated and arrived on time. 3 of the top 4 use a different airport at one end.
| Option | Airline | Success | On time | Cancelled | Best departure | Most punctual flight |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. BUF → BWIBuffalo to Baltimore | Southwest Airlines | 85.7% | 87.0% | 1.50% | 5am–8am, Tue | — |
| 2. ROC → BWIRochester to Baltimore | Southwest Airlines | 81.3% | 82.3% | 1.27% | 5am–8am, Fri | — |
| 3. ROC → DCARochester to Washington | PSA Airlines | 58.9% | 63.5% | 7.20% | 5am–8am, Sat | — |
| 4. BUF → DCABuffalo to Washington | PSA Airlines | 58.2% | 62.2% | 6.37% | 5am–8am, Thu | — |
Success is the share of scheduled flights that operated and arrived less than 15 minutes late, so a cancelled flight counts against it. “(route)” means the best time comes from every carrier on the route rather than this airline alone.
Departure window
The best time of day to leave
Departure time matters more here than the choice of carrier. The gap between the best and worst window is 40 points, against half a point between the best and worst carrier.
- 5am–8am331 flights89.7%
- 8am–11am1 flights—
- 11am–2pm360 flights62.6%
- 2pm–5pm15 flights—
- 5pm–8pm326 flights49.3%
- 8pm–5am—
Scale runs 40% to 95%. Rows with fewer than 30 flights show a dash.
The 5pm–8pm window is where this operation falls apart: 49.3% on time, against 89.7% for the 5am–8am slot. By evening the aircraft flying these rotations have absorbed a full day of small delays and there is no slack left to recover in. The 11am–2pm window is the busiest, with 360 flights scheduled in it.
Explore
Filter ROC to DCA by airline, time, month and day
Pick a breakdown and a carrier. The dashed mark on each row is the same slice for every US flight.
On ROC to DCA, the best departure window is 5am–8am at 89.7% on time and the worst is 5pm–8pm at 49.3%, a wide gap of 40.4 points. All US flights leaving 5am–8am ran 89.3%.
- 5–8am89.7%
- 8–11am—
- 11am–2pm62.6%
- 2–5pm—
- 5–8pm49.3%
- 8pm–5am—
best all US flightsScale 40% to 95%. Cells under 30 flights show a dash.
Across the year
When delays peak on this route
This route's year swings by 38 points from best month to worst, which is wide. An annual average tells you very little about the week you are actually flying, so read the strip rather than the headline if your dates are fixed.
February is the weak month at 48.6% on time, against 86.4% in October. Winter delays cluster: a single storm system can account for most of a month's shortfall, so an average December hides both very good weeks and genuinely unflyable days. August was the busiest month here, with 92 flights.
Across the week, Saturday is the strongest day at 75.5% on time and Thursday the weakest at 60.7%, a spread of 15 points.
Delay causes
Why this route gets delayed
Late-arriving aircraft accounts for 50% of the 35,000 delay minutes carriers reported here, and the remaining four split what is left.
- 50%Late-arriving aircraft
- 27%National Airspace System
- 18%Carrier
- 5%Extreme weather
- 0%Security
50% of delay minutes trace back to a late-arriving aircraft, meaning the plane was already behind before it got here. Across 35,000 reported delay minutes here, that single category outweighs weather by 10 to one. The split is drawn from 35,001 reported delay minutes.
The practical consequence: the 5am–8am departure is the one that starts clean. Its aircraft has no earlier leg to be late from, which is exactly why that window shows 89.7% on time here.
Cancellations run at 6.68%, against 1.89% nationally. That is about one flight in fifteen cancelled outright. A cancelled flight is invisible in every on-time figure on this page, so the punctuality numbers above describe only the flights that actually operated.
Connections and stage length
What a delay here actually costs
15.3% of arrivals land a full hour or more behind schedule, against 8.3% nationally. Ninety minutes is the honest minimum for a connection here, and two hours if the onward flight is on a separate ticket.
At 296 miles this is a short hop, and stage length matters more than it looks. A flight this short spends under two hours in the air, which leaves almost nothing to claw back a late pushback with. Delay here is decided on the ground, in the turn, which is why the 5am–8am window matters as much as it does.
The return leg runs 67.9% on time across 1,032 flights, within about a point of this direction. The two legs are scored separately because they usually differ; on this city pair they happen not to.
One caution: this is a thin sample. 1,033 flights over twelve months is enough to clear this site's floor but not enough to pin the rate down tightly, and a single bad week moves it by more than a point. Treat the grade as a rough reading.
Work out the risk of missing a connection in DCA after this flight
What to do with this
Booking this route
Put together: the delay figures matter less here than the 6.68% cancellation rate. A late arrival costs you close to two hours; a cancelled flight costs you the day. Book the 5am–8am departure so there is still a schedule behind you if it goes wrong, and treat a same-day connection as optimistic. 961 completed flights over 12 months sit behind that.
Common questions
ROC to DCA questions
How often is ROC to DCA delayed?
About one flight in three arrives at least 15 minutes late, which is the Department of Transportation's definition of a delayed arrival. That works out to 33.0% of the 1,033 flights in this analysis, against 22.7% nationally. Delayed flights are late by close to two hours on average.
How reliable is ROC to DCA compared with the rest of the country?
67.0% of flights arrive on time here against a national 77.3%, a difference of 10 points against it. That is worth a C− on this site's grading scale.
What time of day has the fewest delays on ROC to DCA?
The 5am–8am departure window is the strongest at 89.7% on time. The 5pm–8pm window is the weakest at 49.3%, 40 points behind. Later departures inherit delays from earlier flights the same aircraft has already flown, which is why the curve slopes the way it does.
How bad are February delays on ROC to DCA?
February is the weakest month at 48.6% on time, compared with 86.4% in October. Across the year that is 38 points between the best and worst months. Moving flexible dates out of that month is one of the few things that reliably helps.
Related
Where to go next
- DCA to ROC — the return legseparate record
- Ronald Reagan Washington National (DCA) delay statistics
- Republic Airways on ROC to DCA78.5%
- PSA Airlines on ROC to DCA63.5%
- ROC to ORD, a related route75.0%
- BOS to DCA, a related route72.6%
- ROC to BWI, a related route82.3%
- Envoy Air on-time record84.5%
- Republic Airways on-time record78.5%
- PSA Airlines on-time record63.5%
- The US routes with the most cancellations
- Why the first flight of the morning is statistically safest
Direction matters. ROC to DCA and DCA to ROC are scored separately because they are separate operations, with different departure banks and different aircraft. Compare the return leg.
Embed ROC to DCA’s on-time badge on your site
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Source: US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics, on-time performance data, September 2025 to August 2026. Last updated ; recomputed monthly. How this data is collected.