Route reliability record
BUF→DCA
Buffalo to Washington
- Flights
- 1,108
- Period
- September 2025 to August 2026
- Distance
- 296 mi
- Carriers
- 4
This route carries a cancellation problem, not just a delay problem: 5.4% of scheduled flights never operate, against 1.9% nationally. Of the ones that do fly, about two flights in three arrive on time, worth a C− overall. The punctuality figure counts only flights that actually departed, so it flatters an operation that cancels this often. That rests on 1,108 BUF to DCA flights, with a median arrival 2 minutes late.
Best time to fly BUF to DCA: a 5am–8am departure, ideally on a Saturday. Flights in that window arrived on time 87.4% of the time and Saturday flights 72.1%, against 65.5% for the route overall.
The national on-time rate over the same period is 77.3%, so this route runs 12 points behind the country as a whole. Across a thousand flights that is about 118 extra late arrivals.
Key figures
On time
65.5%
Arrivals under 15 minutes late, of 1,047 completed flights
Avg delay
111 min
Across delayed arrivals only, not all flights
Cancelled
5.42%
National rate is 1.89%
Best carrier
PSA
62.2% on time across 644 flights
These figures cover 1,108 flights between September 2025 and August 2026. Beyond the headline rate, 15.8% of arrivals land a full hour or more behind schedule, against 8.3% nationally.
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Carrier by carrier
Which airline is most reliable on BUF to DCA
Only one carrier clears this site's 365-flight floor here, so there is no comparison to draw. The table below is the full picture.
| Airline | Flights | On time | Avg delay | Cancelled | Grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| American Airlinesthin sample | 6 | 100.0% | — | 0.00% | A+ |
| Republic Airwaysthin sample | 265 | 75.9% | 62 min | 1.51% | B |
| PSA Airlines | 644 | 62.2% | 136 min | 6.37% | D− |
| Envoy Airthin sample | 193 | 60.5% | 72 min | 7.77% | D− |
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Best ways to make this trip
The most reliable ways to fly Buffalo to Washington
Every airline on this route and on the routes between nearby airports, ranked by how often a scheduled flight actually operated and arrived on time. 3 of the top 4 use a different airport at one end.
| Option | Airline | Success | On time | Cancelled | Best departure | Most punctual flight |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. BUF → BWIBuffalo to Baltimore | Southwest Airlines | 85.7% | 87.0% | 1.50% | 5am–8am, Tue | — |
| 2. ROC → BWIRochester to Baltimore | Southwest Airlines | 81.3% | 82.3% | 1.27% | 5am–8am, Fri | — |
| 3. ROC → DCARochester to Washington | PSA Airlines | 58.9% | 63.5% | 7.20% | 5am–8am, Sat | — |
| 4. BUF → DCABuffalo to Washington | PSA Airlines | 58.2% | 62.2% | 6.37% | 5am–8am, Thu | — |
Success is the share of scheduled flights that operated and arrived less than 15 minutes late, so a cancelled flight counts against it. “(route)” means the best time comes from every carrier on the route rather than this airline alone.
Departure window
The best time of day to leave
Departure time matters more here than the choice of carrier. The gap between the best and worst window is 39 points, against half a point between the best and worst carrier.
- 5am–8am363 flights87.4%
- 8am–11am—
- 11am–2pm363 flights57.9%
- 2pm–5pm45 flights70.5%
- 5pm–8pm337 flights48.4%
- 8pm–5am—
Scale runs 40% to 95%. Rows with fewer than 30 flights show a dash.
The 5pm–8pm window is where this operation falls apart: 48.4% on time, against 87.4% for the 5am–8am slot. By evening the aircraft flying these rotations have absorbed a full day of small delays and there is no slack left to recover in. The 5am–8am window is the busiest, with 363 flights scheduled in it.
Explore
Filter BUF to DCA by airline, time, month and day
Pick a breakdown and a carrier. The dashed mark on each row is the same slice for every US flight.
On BUF to DCA, the best departure window is 5am–8am at 87.4% on time and the worst is 5pm–8pm at 48.4%, a wide gap of 39.0 points. All US flights leaving 5am–8am ran 89.3%.
- 5–8am87.4%
- 8–11am—
- 11am–2pm57.9%
- 2–5pm70.5%
- 5–8pm48.4%
- 8pm–5am—
best all US flightsScale 40% to 95%. Cells under 30 flights show a dash.
Across the year
When delays peak on this route
This route's year swings by 25 points from best month to worst, which is wide. An annual average tells you very little about the week you are actually flying, so read the strip rather than the headline if your dates are fixed.
September is the best month on the calendar at 75.9% on time. Shoulder season thins the schedule and takes the summer weather with it, and the operation gets its margin back. September was the busiest month here, with 116 flights.
Across the week, Saturday is the strongest day at 72.1% on time and Sunday the weakest at 60.1%, a spread of 12 points.
Delay causes
Why this route gets delayed
Late-arriving aircraft accounts for 53% of the 40,000 delay minutes carriers reported here, and the remaining four split what is left.
- 53%Late-arriving aircraft
- 24%National Airspace System
- 21%Carrier
- 2%Extreme weather
- 0%Security
53% of delay minutes trace back to a late-arriving aircraft, meaning the plane was already behind before it got here. Across 40,000 reported delay minutes here, that single category outweighs weather by 24 to one. The split is drawn from 40,053 reported delay minutes.
The practical consequence: the 5am–8am departure is the one that starts clean. Its aircraft has no earlier leg to be late from, which is exactly why that window shows 87.4% on time here.
Cancellations run at 5.42%, against 1.89% nationally. That is about one flight in twenty cancelled outright. A cancelled flight is invisible in every on-time figure on this page, so the punctuality numbers above describe only the flights that actually operated.
Connections and stage length
What a delay here actually costs
15.8% of arrivals land a full hour or more behind schedule, against 8.3% nationally. Ninety minutes is the honest minimum for a connection here, and two hours if the onward flight is on a separate ticket.
At 296 miles this is a short hop, and stage length matters more than it looks. A flight this short spends under two hours in the air, which leaves almost nothing to claw back a late pushback with. Delay here is decided on the ground, in the turn, which is why the 5am–8am window matters as much as it does.
The return leg runs 63.2% on time across 1,108 flights, within 2 points of this direction. The two legs are scored separately because they usually differ; on this city pair they happen not to.
The sample behind these figures is 1,108 flights, enough that the headline rate is stable to within roughly a point. The hour-block and month splits divide that further, so read the thinner bars with more caution than the headline.
Work out the risk of missing a connection in DCA after this flight
What to do with this
Booking this route
Put together: the delay figures matter less here than the 5.42% cancellation rate. A late arrival costs you close to two hours; a cancelled flight costs you the day. Book the 5am–8am departure so there is still a schedule behind you if it goes wrong, and treat a same-day connection as optimistic. 1,047 completed flights over 12 months sit behind that.
Common questions
BUF to DCA questions
How often is BUF to DCA delayed?
About one flight in three arrives at least 15 minutes late, which is the Department of Transportation's definition of a delayed arrival. That works out to 34.5% of the 1,108 flights in this analysis, against 22.7% nationally. Delayed flights are late by close to two hours on average.
How reliable is BUF to DCA compared with the rest of the country?
65.5% of flights arrive on time here against a national 77.3%, a difference of 12 points against it. That is worth a C− on this site's grading scale.
What time of day has the fewest delays on BUF to DCA?
The 5am–8am departure window is the strongest at 87.4% on time. The 5pm–8pm window is the weakest at 48.4%, 39 points behind. Later departures inherit delays from earlier flights the same aircraft has already flown, which is why the curve slopes the way it does.
How bad are November delays on BUF to DCA?
November is the weakest month at 51.2% on time, compared with 75.9% in September. Across the year that is 25 points between the best and worst months. Moving flexible dates out of that month is one of the few things that reliably helps.
Related
Where to go next
- DCA to BUF — the return legseparate record
- Ronald Reagan Washington National (DCA) delay statistics
- Republic Airways on BUF to DCA75.9%
- PSA Airlines on BUF to DCA62.2%
- Envoy Air on BUF to DCA60.5%
- BUF to ORD, a related route74.4%
- BOS to DCA, a related route72.6%
- BUF to MCO, a related route75.4%
- American Airlines on-time record100.0%
- Republic Airways on-time record75.9%
- PSA Airlines on-time record62.2%
- The US routes with the most cancellations
- Why the first flight of the morning is statistically safest
Direction matters. BUF to DCA and DCA to BUF are scored separately because they are separate operations, with different departure banks and different aircraft. Compare the return leg.
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Source: US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics, on-time performance data, September 2025 to August 2026. Last updated ; recomputed monthly. How this data is collected.