Holiday travel
Spring break flight delays
The peak of college and school spring breaks, 10 to 25 March.
Based on 2026 and earlier data. 2027 results expected around May 2027. Historical statistics, not a forecast and not live status.
Spring break 2027 falls on Wednesday 10 March 2027 to Thursday 25 March 2027. What follows is based on 2026 data and the years before it, back to 2023; figures for 2027 itself should arrive around May 2027, once the US DOT has published the months it covers.
Spring break is quieter in the data than its reputation: only 1 of the last 3 years cleared the measurable-effect test. For planning, the patterns below matter more than the holiday's name.
Of the 4 Spring breaks on record here (2023, 2024, 2025 and 2026), 1 moved a headline figure past the test and 3 did not.
Key figures for 2026
On time, 2026
73.1%
Normal weeks: 78.9%
Avg delay
80 min
Normal weeks: 74 min
Cancelled
4.06%
Normal weeks: 1.67%
Flights
317,330
Tuesday 10 March to Wednesday 25 March 2026
Year by year the holiday's on-time gap to its normal weeks was −1.5 in 2023, −1.0 in 2024, +0.7 in 2025 and −5.8 in 2026 points, below normal by 1.9 points on average. The delay gap was −1 minute in 2023, −4 minutes in 2024, −1 minute in 2025 and +6 minutes in 2026; the cancellation gap −0.51 in 2023, +0.04 in 2024, −0.30 in 2025 and +2.39 in 2026 points.
2026's window scheduled 317,330 flights, 19,833 a day, which is +2% on the 19,396 a day of the weeks around it; over the years in the data the holiday's total grew 6%.
The share of arrivals an hour or more late, the figure that decides a connection, was 8.2% in 2023 (normally 7.6%), 7.0% in 2024 (normally 7.0%), 6.9% in 2025 (normally 7.3%) and 10.9% in 2026 (normally 7.6%).
Year on year
Every Spring break in the data
| Year | Flights | On time | Normal weeks | Change | Cancelled | Normal weeks |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023, close to normal | 300,396 | 74.6% | 76.1% | −1.5 | 1.23% | 1.74% |
| 2024, close to normal | 310,166 | 78.9% | 79.9% | −1.0 | 0.94% | 0.90% |
| 2025, close to normal | 313,707 | 80.5% | 79.8% | +0.7 | 0.97% | 1.27% |
| 2026 | 317,330 | 73.1% | 78.9% | −5.8 | 4.06% | 1.67% |
“Normal weeks” are the two weeks either side of the holiday, leaving out other holiday periods. Change is in percentage points.
Patterns
What repeats from year to year
The most punctual Spring break in the data was 2025 at 80.5% on time; the least was 2026 at 73.1%, 7.4 points lower.
If you want to avoid the fullest airports, the peak days were Friday 24 March 2023 (19,625 flights), Friday 22 March 2024 (20,132 flights), Thursday 20 March 2025 (20,397 flights) and Thursday 19 March 2026 (20,795 flights).
The worst single day was Sunday 12 March 2023 (63.1%), Friday 15 March 2024 (69.6%), Sunday 16 March 2025 (55.9%) and Monday 16 March 2026 (44.6%). The worst day moved around from year to year, which points to weather rather than to a fixed crunch in the holiday schedule.
On average across 2023, 2024, 2025 and 2026, day 10 of the window ran best at 83.2% on time and day 7 of the window worst at 64.0%. Spring break moves across the week from year to year, so the day's position in the window is used instead of its name.
Early or late matters: 5am–8am departures averaged 88.1% on time across 2023, 2024, 2025 and 2026, 5pm–8pm departures 69.5%. That 18.6 points gap is bigger than the holiday effect itself.
The cancellation rate has been as low as 0.94% (2024) and as high as 4.06% (2026), with New York (LGA) at 14.01% in the worst year.
Airports and airlines
Who handles Spring break best
Averaged across 2023, 2024, 2025 and 2026, the airports that handled the holiday best against their own normal weeks were Boston (BOS, +2.9), Reno (RNO, +1.9) and Hartford (BDL, +1.3); the ones that struggled most were Honolulu (HNL, −7.1), Lihue (LIH, −7.0) and Kahului (OGG, −6.6).
The large airport that fell furthest behind its normal weeks was Grand Rapids (GRR, −11.0 points) in 2023, San Juan (SJU, −11.9 points) in 2024, Anchorage (ANC, −6.2 points) in 2025 and Lihue (LIH, −16.7 points) in 2026.
Over the holiday across 2023, 2024, 2025 and 2026, Spirit Airlines was the least reliable large carrier at 65.5% on time on average, against 82.7% for Republic Airways.
The holiday changed some airlines more than others: Spirit Airlines averaged −5.5 points against its normal weeks, JetBlue Airways +0.3.
The most punctual large carrier each year was Republic Airways in 2023 (85.2%), Republic Airways in 2024 (90.7%), Republic Airways in 2025 (84.3%) and Envoy Air in 2026 (78.3%).
No route stayed among the five busiest in every year, which shows how much the holiday schedule shifts from one year to the next.
What to do with this
Planning Spring break 2027
What the years add up to for 2027: fly day 10 of the window if the dates allow; take a 5am–8am departure; and allow more connection time at Honolulu (HNL) and Lihue (LIH). None of it guarantees a smooth trip; it moves the odds.
On time means arriving less than 15 minutes after the scheduled gate time. Average delay counts delayed flights only; cancellations are a share of every scheduled flight. A holiday is compared with the two weeks either side of it, leaving out days that belong to other holidays. The measurable-effect test asks for 3 points of on-time rate, 5 minutes of average delay or 2 points of cancellations; airports, routes and carriers need 500 flights in the window to be ranked. The US DOT publishes on-time data about two months after the month it covers.
Related
Where to go next
- Spring break 202374.6%
- Spring break 202478.9%
- Spring break 202580.5%
- Spring break 202673.1%
- Every US travel holiday
- The holidays that fly better than a normal week
- The busiest US travel days, and what they cost in punctuality
- How the figures are computed
Holiday windows are fixed by rule each year. See every window.
Source: US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics, on-time performance data, July 2025 to June 2026. Last updated 15 September 2026; recomputed monthly. How this data is collected.