Route reliability record
MSP→DCA
Minneapolis to Washington
- Flights
- 2,632
- Period
- September 2025 to August 2026
- Distance
- 931 mi
- Carriers
- 5
This route sits in the middle of the pack with a C−. Close to three flights in four arrive on time by the DOT's definition, 3 points worse than the national rate of 77.3%. The late ones land an hour and a half behind schedule. That rests on 2,632 MSP to DCA flights, of which Delta Air Lines flew 1,701 at 75.9% on time.
Best time to fly MSP to DCA: a 8am–11am departure, ideally on a Saturday. Flights in that window arrived on time 83.8% of the time and Saturday flights 83.5%, against 74.6% for the route overall.
The US average over the same twelve months is 77.3%, so there is little to separate this route from the country as a whole. The variation that matters here is internal: which carrier, and what time of day.
Key figures
On time
74.6%
Arrivals under 15 minutes late, of 2,534 completed flights
Avg delay
85 min
Across delayed arrivals only, not all flights
Cancelled
3.19%
National rate is 1.89%
Best carrier
Delta
75.9% on time across 1,701 flights
These figures cover 2,632 flights between September 2025 and August 2026. Beyond the headline rate, 9.6% of arrivals land a full hour or more behind schedule, against 8.3% nationally.
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Carrier by carrier
Which airline is most reliable on MSP to DCA
The two carriers here are closely matched: 4 points separate the best from the worst. At that spread, schedule and price are better tie-breakers than reliability. Sample sizes are shown so you can see which rows are worth weighing.
| Airline | Flights | On time | Avg delay | Cancelled | Grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republic Airwaysthin sample | 199 | 78.1% | 71 min | 5.03% | B− |
| Delta Air Lines | 1,701 | 75.9% | 61 min | 1.94% | B |
| PSA Airlines | 528 | 72.2% | 168 min | 6.06% | C− |
| Envoy Airthin sample | 163 | 67.5% | 65 min | 4.29% | C− |
| American Airlinesthin sample | 41 | 61.5% | 73 min | 4.88% | D− |
PSA Airlines cancels 6.1% of what it schedules here, the highest in the table. A cancelled flight never appears in an on-time rate, so read that column alongside the punctuality one rather than after it.
Flight by flight
Flights on MSP to DCA
The flight numbers below flew this route at least 250 times in the period, busiest first. Each has its own record, with its schedule and delay causes.
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Best ways to make this trip
The most reliable ways to fly Minneapolis to Washington
Every airline on this route and on the routes between nearby airports, ranked by how often a scheduled flight actually operated and arrived on time. 3 of the top 5 use a different airport at one end.
| Option | Airline | Success | On time | Cancelled | Best departure | Most punctual flight |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. MSP → BWIMinneapolis to Baltimore | Southwest Airlines | 80.8% | 82.3% | 1.81% | 5am–8am, Tue | — |
| 2. MSP → BWIMinneapolis to Baltimore | Delta Air Lines | 80.8% | 82.0% | 1.52% | 8am–11am, Tue | DL 2918 19:45 |
| 3. MSP → IADMinneapolis to Washington | SkyWest Airlines | 79.4% | 80.3% | 1.06% | 8am–11am, Sat | OO 3783 10:00 |
| 4. MSP → DCAMinneapolis to Washington | Delta Air Lines | 74.4% | 75.9% | 1.94% | 8am–11am, Sat | DL 2983 10:05 |
| 5. MSP → DCAMinneapolis to Washington | PSA Airlines | 67.8% | 72.2% | 6.06% | 5am–8am, Sat | — |
Success is the share of scheduled flights that operated and arrived less than 15 minutes late, so a cancelled flight counts against it. “(route)” means the best time comes from every carrier on the route rather than this airline alone.
Departure window
The best time of day to leave
Departure time matters more here than the choice of carrier. The gap between the best and worst window is 23 points, against 4 points between the best and worst carrier.
- 5am–8am649 flights83.7%
- 8am–11am385 flights83.8%
- 11am–2pm289 flights74.2%
- 2pm–5pm362 flights76.1%
- 5pm–8pm600 flights61.3%
- 8pm–5am347 flights69.0%
Scale runs 55% to 90%.
The 5pm–8pm window is where this operation falls apart: 61.3% on time, against 83.8% for the 8am–11am slot. By evening the aircraft flying these rotations have absorbed a full day of small delays and there is no slack left to recover in. The 5am–8am window is the busiest, with 649 flights scheduled in it.
Explore
Filter MSP to DCA by airline, time, month and day
Pick a breakdown and a carrier. The dashed mark on each row is the same slice for every US flight.
On MSP to DCA, the best departure window is 8am–11am at 83.8% on time and the worst is 5pm–8pm at 61.3%, a wide gap of 22.5 points. All US flights leaving 8am–11am ran 83.9%.
- 5–8am83.7%
- 8–11am83.8%
- 11am–2pm74.2%
- 2–5pm76.1%
- 5–8pm61.3%
- 8pm–5am69.0%
best all US flightsScale 55% to 95%.
Across the year
When delays peak on this route
This route's year swings by 19 points from best month to worst, which is wide. An annual average tells you very little about the week you are actually flying, so read the strip rather than the headline if your dates are fixed.
July is the worst month at 65.1% on time, 19 points below May, the best at 84.0%. Summer afternoon convection and peak-season schedules land on the same weeks every year, so this is a pattern you can book around rather than a run of bad luck. August was the busiest month here, with 235 flights.
Across the week, Saturday is the strongest day at 83.5% on time and Thursday the weakest at 69.5%, a spread of 14 points.
Delay causes
Why this route gets delayed
Carriers report a reason for every delay minute they cause, in five DOT categories. The split below is by minutes, not by number of flights, so a handful of very long weather delays weighs as much as many short ones. It covers 55,000 reported delay minutes.
- 37%Carrier
- 30%National Airspace System
- 26%Late-arriving aircraft
- 7%Extreme weather
The largest share of delay minutes, 37%, falls under carrier control: crew scheduling, maintenance, fuelling, baggage. It accounts for 20,000 of the 55,000 delay minutes reported here. The split is drawn from 54,625 reported delay minutes.
Cancellations run at 3.19%, against 1.89% nationally. That is about one flight in 30 cancelled outright. A cancelled flight is invisible in every on-time figure on this page, so the punctuality numbers above describe only the flights that actually operated.
Connections and stage length
What a delay here actually costs
9.6% of arrivals land a full hour or more behind schedule, against 8.3% nationally. Ninety minutes is the honest minimum for a connection here, and two hours if the onward flight is on a separate ticket.
The 931 miles between these two airports put this in the middle of the US network, around two and a half to three hours of block time. That is enough cruise to absorb a ten-minute late pushback and not enough to absorb thirty.
The return leg runs 75.6% on time across 2,632 flights, within about a point of this direction. The two legs are scored separately because they usually differ; on this city pair they happen not to.
The sample behind these figures is 2,632 flights, enough that the headline rate is stable to within roughly a point. The hour-block and month splits divide that further, so read the thinner bars with more caution than the headline.
Work out the risk of missing a connection in DCA after this flight
What to do with this
Booking this route
Put together: the delay figures matter less here than the 3.19% cancellation rate. A late arrival costs you an hour and a half; a cancelled flight costs you the day. Book the 8am–11am departure so there is still a schedule behind you if it goes wrong, and treat a same-day connection as optimistic. 2,534 completed flights over 12 months sit behind that.
Common questions
MSP to DCA questions
How often is MSP to DCA delayed?
About one flight in four arrives at least 15 minutes late, which is the Department of Transportation's definition of a delayed arrival. That works out to 25.4% of the 2,632 flights in this analysis, against 22.7% nationally. Delayed flights are late by an hour and a half on average.
Which airline is most reliable on MSP to DCA?
Delta Air Lines leads at 75.9% on time across 1,701 flights. PSA Airlines is at the other end on 72.2%, a gap of 4 points. Sample size matters as much as the percentage: a rate built from a few hundred flights moves around far more than one built from ten thousand.
What time of day has the fewest delays on MSP to DCA?
The 8am–11am departure window is the strongest at 83.8% on time. The 5pm–8pm window is the weakest at 61.3%, 23 points behind. Later departures inherit delays from earlier flights the same aircraft has already flown, which is why the curve slopes the way it does.
How bad are July delays on MSP to DCA?
July is the weakest month at 65.1% on time, compared with 84.0% in May. Across the year that is 19 points between the best and worst months. Moving flexible dates out of that month is one of the few things that reliably helps.
Related
Where to go next
- DCA to MSP — the return legseparate record
- Minneapolis-St Paul International (MSP) delay statistics
- Ronald Reagan Washington National (DCA) delay statistics
- Republic Airways on MSP to DCA78.1%
- Delta Air Lines on MSP to DCA75.9%
- PSA Airlines on MSP to DCA72.2%
- Envoy Air on MSP to DCA67.5%
- MSP to ORD, a related route70.0%
- BOS to DCA, a related route72.6%
- MSP to DEN, a related route77.8%
- Republic Airways on-time record78.1%
- Delta Air Lines on-time record75.9%
- PSA Airlines on-time record72.2%
- The US routes with the most cancellations
- What a cancellation rate actually tells you (and what it hides)
Direction matters. MSP to DCA and DCA to MSP are scored separately because they are separate operations, with different departure banks and different aircraft. Compare the return leg.
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Source: US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics, on-time performance data, September 2025 to August 2026. Last updated ; recomputed monthly. How this data is collected.