Route reliability record
DCA→MSP
Washington to Minneapolis
- Flights
- 2,632
- Period
- September 2025 to August 2026
- Distance
- 931 mi
- Carriers
- 5
This route carries a cancellation problem, not just a delay problem: 3.2% of scheduled flights never operate, against 1.9% nationally. Of the ones that do fly, close to three flights in four arrive on time, worth a B− overall. The punctuality figure counts only flights that actually departed, so it flatters an operation that cancels this often. That rests on 2,632 DCA to MSP flights, of which Delta Air Lines flew 1,701 at 78.9% on time.
Best time to fly DCA to MSP: a 5am–8am departure, ideally on a Saturday. Flights in that window arrived on time 85.5% of the time and Saturday flights 82.2%, against 75.6% for the route overall.
The US average over the same twelve months is 77.3%, so there is little to separate this route from the country as a whole. The variation that matters here is internal: which carrier, and what time of day.
Key figures
On time
75.6%
Arrivals under 15 minutes late, of 2,542 completed flights
Avg delay
90 min
Across delayed arrivals only, not all flights
Cancelled
3.23%
National rate is 1.89%
Best carrier
Delta
78.9% on time across 1,701 flights
These figures cover 2,632 flights between September 2025 and August 2026. Beyond the headline rate, 10.2% of arrivals land a full hour or more behind schedule, against 8.3% nationally.
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Carrier by carrier
Which airline is most reliable on DCA to MSP
The choice of carrier is not cosmetic here. Delta Air Lines arrives on time 78.9% of the time; PSA Airlines manages 65.4%. Sample sizes sit next to every figure, because a two-point gap across 528 flights means less than a ten-point one.
| Airline | Flights | On time | Avg delay | Cancelled | Grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Delta Air Lines | 1,701 | 78.9% | 94 min | 1.88% | B |
| Envoy Airthin sample | 164 | 76.9% | 55 min | 2.44% | B |
| American Airlinesthin sample | 41 | 72.5% | 62 min | 2.44% | C |
| Republic Airwaysthin sample | 198 | 72.2% | 76 min | 5.05% | C− |
| PSA Airlines | 528 | 65.4% | 96 min | 7.20% | C− |
PSA Airlines cancels 7.2% of what it schedules here, the highest in the table. A cancelled flight never appears in an on-time rate, so read that column alongside the punctuality one rather than after it.
Flight by flight
Flights on DCA to MSP
The flight numbers below flew this route at least 250 times in the period, busiest first. Each has its own record, with its schedule and delay causes.
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Best ways to make this trip
The most reliable ways to fly Washington to Minneapolis
Every airline on this route and on the routes between nearby airports, ranked by how often a scheduled flight actually operated and arrived on time. 3 of the top 5 use a different airport at one end.
| Option | Airline | Success | On time | Cancelled | Best departure | Most punctual flight |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. IAD → MSPWashington to Minneapolis | SkyWest Airlines | 84.8% | 85.8% | 1.18% | 5am–8am, Thu | OO 3996 06:00 |
| 2. BWI → MSPBaltimore to Minneapolis | Delta Air Lines | 82.8% | 84.4% | 1.84% | 2pm–5pm, Tue | DL 2872 06:00 |
| 3. DCA → MSPWashington to Minneapolis | Delta Air Lines | 77.4% | 78.9% | 1.88% | 5am–8am, Sat | DL 1193 06:05 |
| 4. BWI → MSPBaltimore to Minneapolis | Southwest Airlines | 65.6% | 67.4% | 2.60% | 8am–11am, Tue | — |
| 5. DCA → MSPWashington to Minneapolis | PSA Airlines | 60.7% | 65.4% | 7.20% | 8am–11am, Sat | — |
Success is the share of scheduled flights that operated and arrived less than 15 minutes late, so a cancelled flight counts against it. “(route)” means the best time comes from every carrier on the route rather than this airline alone.
Departure window
The best time of day to leave
Departure time matters more here than the choice of carrier. The gap between the best and worst window is 19 points, against 14 points between the best and worst carrier.
- 5am–8am623 flights85.5%
- 8am–11am300 flights77.2%
- 11am–2pm373 flights77.5%
- 2pm–5pm683 flights69.5%
- 5pm–8pm380 flights73.3%
- 8pm–5am273 flights66.3%
Scale runs 60% to 90%.
Book the early departure. Flights leaving between 5am–8am arrive on time 85.5% of the time, against 66.3% for the overnight window. That is 19 points of difference for no extra money, and it comes from the same aircraft having had no earlier flight to fall behind on. The 2pm–5pm window is the busiest, with 683 flights scheduled in it.
Explore
Filter DCA to MSP by airline, time, month and day
Pick a breakdown and a carrier. The dashed mark on each row is the same slice for every US flight.
On DCA to MSP, the best departure window is 5am–8am at 85.5% on time and the worst is 8pm–5am at 66.3%, a wide gap of 19.2 points. All US flights leaving 5am–8am ran 89.3%.
- 5–8am85.5%
- 8–11am77.2%
- 11am–2pm77.5%
- 2–5pm69.5%
- 5–8pm73.3%
- 8pm–5am66.3%
best all US flightsScale 60% to 95%.
Across the year
When delays peak on this route
This route's year swings by 32 points from best month to worst, which is wide. An annual average tells you very little about the week you are actually flying, so read the strip rather than the headline if your dates are fixed.
July is the worst month at 55.3% on time, 32 points below September, the best at 87.6%. Summer afternoon convection and peak-season schedules land on the same weeks every year, so this is a pattern you can book around rather than a run of bad luck. August was the busiest month here, with 235 flights.
Across the week, Saturday is the strongest day at 82.2% on time and Thursday the weakest at 70.3%, a spread of 12 points.
Delay causes
Why this route gets delayed
Carriers report a reason for every delay minute they cause, in five DOT categories. The split below is by minutes, not by number of flights, so a handful of very long weather delays weighs as much as many short ones. It covers 56,000 reported delay minutes.
- 40%Carrier
- 39%Late-arriving aircraft
- 14%National Airspace System
- 7%Extreme weather
- 0%Security
39% of delay minutes trace back to a late-arriving aircraft, meaning the plane was already behind before it got here. Across 56,000 reported delay minutes here, that single category outweighs weather by 6 to one. The split is drawn from 55,868 reported delay minutes.
The largest share of delay minutes, 40%, falls under carrier control: crew scheduling, maintenance, fuelling, baggage. It accounts for 22,000 of the 56,000 delay minutes reported here.
Cancellations run at 3.23%, against 1.89% nationally. That is about one flight in 30 cancelled outright. A cancelled flight is invisible in every on-time figure on this page, so the punctuality numbers above describe only the flights that actually operated.
Connections and stage length
What a delay here actually costs
10.2% of arrivals land a full hour or more behind schedule, against 8.3% nationally. Ninety minutes is the honest minimum for a connection here, and two hours if the onward flight is on a separate ticket.
The 931 miles between these two airports put this in the middle of the US network, around two and a half to three hours of block time. That is enough cruise to absorb a ten-minute late pushback and not enough to absorb thirty.
The return leg runs 74.6% on time across 2,632 flights, within about a point of this direction. The two legs are scored separately because they usually differ; on this city pair they happen not to.
The sample behind these figures is 2,632 flights, enough that the headline rate is stable to within roughly a point. The hour-block and month splits divide that further, so read the thinner bars with more caution than the headline.
Work out the risk of missing a connection in MSP after this flight
What to do with this
Booking this route
Put together: the delay figures matter less here than the 3.23% cancellation rate. A late arrival costs you an hour and a half; a cancelled flight costs you the day. Book the 5am–8am departure so there is still a schedule behind you if it goes wrong, and treat a same-day connection as optimistic. 2,542 completed flights over 12 months sit behind that.
Common questions
DCA to MSP questions
How often is DCA to MSP delayed?
About one flight in four arrives at least 15 minutes late, which is the Department of Transportation's definition of a delayed arrival. That works out to 24.4% of the 2,632 flights in this analysis, against 22.7% nationally. Delayed flights are late by an hour and a half on average.
Which airline is most reliable on DCA to MSP?
Delta Air Lines leads at 78.9% on time across 1,701 flights. PSA Airlines is at the other end on 65.4%, a gap of 14 points. Sample size matters as much as the percentage: a rate built from a few hundred flights moves around far more than one built from ten thousand.
What time of day has the fewest delays on DCA to MSP?
The 5am–8am departure window is the strongest at 85.5% on time. The 8pm–5am window is the weakest at 66.3%, 19 points behind. Later departures inherit delays from earlier flights the same aircraft has already flown, which is why the curve slopes the way it does.
How bad are July delays on DCA to MSP?
July is the weakest month at 55.3% on time, compared with 87.6% in September. Across the year that is 32 points between the best and worst months. Moving flexible dates out of that month is one of the few things that reliably helps.
Related
Where to go next
- MSP to DCA — the return legseparate record
- Ronald Reagan Washington National (DCA) delay statistics
- Minneapolis-St Paul International (MSP) delay statistics
- Delta Air Lines on DCA to MSP78.9%
- Envoy Air on DCA to MSP76.9%
- Republic Airways on DCA to MSP72.2%
- PSA Airlines on DCA to MSP65.4%
- DCA to BOS, a related route70.1%
- ORD to MSP, a related route69.9%
- DCA to ORD, a related route73.8%
- Delta Air Lines on-time record78.9%
- Envoy Air on-time record76.9%
- American Airlines on-time record72.5%
- The US routes with the most cancellations
- Same route, different airline: where the carrier you pick matters most
Direction matters. DCA to MSP and MSP to DCA are scored separately because they are separate operations, with different departure banks and different aircraft. Compare the return leg.
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Source: US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics, on-time performance data, September 2025 to August 2026. Last updated ; recomputed monthly. How this data is collected.