Route reliability record
MSP→IAD
Minneapolis to Washington
- Flights
- 920
- Period
- July 2025 to June 2026
- Distance
- 907 mi
- Carriers
- 4
This route lands a B+, 3 points better than the national rate of 77.6%. About one flight in five arrives 15 minutes late or worse, and those flights are late by about an hour on average. That is a workable record, not a spotless one. That rests on 920 MSP to IAD flights, with a median arrival 7 minutes early.
Best time to fly MSP to IAD: a 11am–2pm departure, ideally on a Saturday. Flights in that window arrived on time 88.3% of the time and Saturday flights 86.9%, against 80.7% for the route overall.
The US average over the same twelve months is 77.6%, so there is little to separate this route from the country as a whole. The variation that matters here is internal: which carrier, and what time of day.
Key figures
On time
80.7%
Arrivals under 15 minutes late, of 910 completed flights
Avg delay
65 min
Across delayed arrivals only, not all flights
Cancelled
0.98%
National rate is 1.81%
Best carrier
SkyWest
80.3% on time across 818 flights
These figures cover 920 flights between July 2025 and June 2026. The median arrival is 7 minutes early, which is the part an average hides: most flights here are fine, and the on-time rate is decided by a tail of badly late ones. On-time means under 15 minutes late, the DOT's own threshold.
Carrier by carrier
Which airline is most reliable on MSP to IAD
Only one carrier clears this site's 365-flight floor here, so there is no comparison to draw. The table below is the full picture.
| Airline | Flights | On time | Avg delay | Cancelled | Grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| United Airlinesthin sample | 46 | 89.1% | 37 min | 0.00% | A+ |
| Republic Airwaysthin sample | 31 | 86.7% | 58 min | 3.23% | A− |
| SkyWest Airlines | 818 | 80.3% | 65 min | 0.98% | B+ |
| Delta Air Linesthin sample | 25 | 68.0% | 81 min | 0.00% | C+ |
Flight by flight
Flights on MSP to IAD
The flight numbers below flew this route at least 250 times in the period, busiest first. Each has its own record, with its schedule and delay causes.
Best ways to make this trip
The most reliable ways to fly Minneapolis to Washington
Every airline on this route and on the routes between nearby airports, ranked by how often a scheduled flight actually operated and arrived on time. 4 of the top 5 use a different airport at one end.
| Option | Airline | Success | On time | Cancelled | Best departure | Most punctual flight |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. MSP → BWIMinneapolis to Baltimore | Delta Air Lines | 80.4% | 81.3% | 1.09% | 8am–11am, Tue | DL 2918 20:20 |
| 2. MSP → IADMinneapolis to Washington | SkyWest Airlines | 79.5% | 80.3% | 0.98% | 11am–2pm, Sat (route) | OO 3783 10:00 |
| 3. MSP → BWIMinneapolis to Baltimore | Southwest Airlines | 78.4% | 79.7% | 1.64% | 5am–8am, Tue | — |
| 4. MSP → DCAMinneapolis to Washington | Delta Air Lines | 74.0% | 75.6% | 2.12% | 8am–11am, Tue | DL 2983 10:36 |
| 5. MSP → DCAMinneapolis to Washington | PSA Airlines | 68.6% | 72.7% | 5.59% | 5am–8am, Sat | — |
Success is the share of scheduled flights that operated and arrived less than 15 minutes late, so a cancelled flight counts against it. “(route)” means the best time comes from every carrier on the route rather than this airline alone.
Departure window
The best time of day to leave
Departure time matters more here than the choice of carrier. The gap between the best and worst window is 13 points, against half a point between the best and worst carrier. Each bar is the on-time rate for flights scheduled inside that window.
- 5am–8am125 flights80.8%
- 8am–11am215 flights84.0%
- 11am–2pm78 flights88.3%
- 2pm–5pm182 flights75.0%
- 5pm–8pm4 flights—
- 8pm–5am316 flights79.5%
Scale runs 65% to 95%. Rows with fewer than 30 flights show a dash.
The best window here is not the first bank but the 11am–2pm slot at 88.3% on time, ahead of 2pm–5pm at 75.0%. Where the curve peaks mid-day rather than at dawn, the constraint is usually congestion at one end rather than the aircraft's own rotation. The 8pm–5am window is the busiest, with 316 flights scheduled in it.
Across the year
When delays peak on this route
This route's year swings by 30 points from best month to worst, which is wide. An annual average tells you very little about the week you are actually flying, so read the strip rather than the headline if your dates are fixed.
December is the weak month at 64.5% on time, against 94.9% in September. Winter delays cluster: a single storm system can account for most of a month's shortfall, so an average December hides both very good weeks and genuinely unflyable days. June was the busiest month here, with 116 flights.
Across the week, Saturday is the strongest day at 86.9% on time and Tuesday the weakest at 76.8%. 10 points is a smaller lever than departure hour, but it is free.
Delay causes
Why this route gets delayed
One category carries most of the weight here. Carrier accounts for 66% of the 11,000 delay minutes carriers reported, and the remaining four split what is left. The split is by minutes rather than by flights, so a few very long delays count for as much as many short ones.
- 66%Carrier
- 20%Extreme weather
- 13%National Airspace System
- 2%Late-arriving aircraft
Extreme weather accounts for 20% of delay minutes, well above the single-digit share typical across the system. Weather delays are lumpy: they arrive as whole bad days rather than as a steady drag, so the monthly strip above is the more useful view of the risk. The national share is 6%, so this operation carries roughly 3.1 times the usual weather exposure. The split is drawn from 11,392 reported delay minutes.
The largest share of delay minutes, 66%, falls under carrier control: crew scheduling, maintenance, fuelling, baggage. Unlike weather, that is a management outcome, and it is the category where the gap between two carriers on the same schedule is genuinely earned. It accounts for 7,472 of the 11,000 delay minutes reported here.
Cancellations sit at 0.98% against a national 1.81%, which is ordinary. Diversions add another 0.11%.
Connections and stage length
What a delay here actually costs
6.2% of arrivals land an hour or more late, close to the national 8.1%. That is the figure that decides a connection, and it says a 60 to 75 minute layover is reasonable here while anything under 45 minutes is a bet. Most delays on this route last about an hour, which a normal layover absorbs.
The 907 miles between these two airports put this in the middle of the US network, around two and a half to three hours of block time. That is enough cruise to absorb a ten-minute late pushback and not enough to absorb thirty. It is also long enough that the aircraft usually flies three or four legs a day rather than six, which slows how fast delay compounds.
The return leg is a different operation and performs like one: it runs 85.1% on time across 921 flights, 4 points above this direction. Departure banks, aircraft rotations and the congestion at each end all differ, so scoring the two directions together would average away a real 4 points of difference.
One caution: this is a thin sample. 920 flights over twelve months is enough to clear this site's floor but not enough to pin the rate down tightly, and a single bad week moves it by more than a point. Treat the grade as a rough reading.
Work out the risk of missing a connection in IAD after this flight
What to do with this
Booking this route
Put together: treat all of this as provisional. 920 flights over twelve months is enough to clear this site's floor and not enough to be confident to better than a couple of points. The 80.7% headline is the most reliable number on the page; the hour and month splits below it are built on a few dozen flights each. 910 completed flights over 12 months sit behind that.
Common questions
MSP to IAD questions
How often is MSP to IAD delayed?
About one flight in five arrives at least 15 minutes late, which is the Department of Transportation's definition of a delayed arrival. That works out to 19.3% of the 920 flights in this analysis, against 22.4% nationally. Delayed flights are late by about an hour on average.
How reliable is MSP to IAD compared with the rest of the country?
80.7% of flights arrive on time here against a national 77.6%, a difference of 3 points in its favour. That is worth a B+ on this site's grading scale.
What time of day has the fewest delays on MSP to IAD?
The 11am–2pm departure window is the strongest at 88.3% on time. The 2pm–5pm window is the weakest at 75.0%, 13 points behind. Later departures inherit delays from earlier flights the same aircraft has already flown, which is why the curve slopes the way it does.
How bad are December delays on MSP to IAD?
December is the weakest month at 64.5% on time, compared with 94.9% in September. Across the year that is 30 points between the best and worst months. Moving flexible dates out of that month is one of the few things that reliably helps.
Related
Where to go next
- IAD to MSP — the return legseparate record
- Minneapolis-St Paul International (MSP) delay statistics
- Washington Dulles International (IAD) delay statistics
- MSP to ORD, a related route69.9%
- ATL to IAD, a related route76.5%
- MSP to DEN, a related route77.6%
- United Airlines on-time record89.1%
- Republic Airways on-time record86.7%
- SkyWest Airlines on-time record80.3%
- The best time of day to fly, according to 7.04 million flight records
- Worst months to fly in the US, ranked by the data
Direction matters. MSP to IAD and IAD to MSP are scored separately because they are separate operations, with different departure banks and different aircraft. Compare the return leg.
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Source: US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics, on-time performance data, July 2025 to June 2026. Last updated 15 September 2026; recomputed monthly. How this data is collected.