Route reliability record
PHX→ORD
Phoenix to Chicago
- Flights
- 5,633
- Period
- June 2025 to May 2026
- Distance
- 1,440 mi
- Carriers
- 4
This route lands a B, level with the national rate of 77.4%. About one flight in four arrive 15 minutes late or worse, and those flights are late by a little over an hour on average. That is a workable record, not a spotless one. That rests on 5,633 flights, of which American Airlines flew 2,994 at 79.5% on time.
American Airlines is the most reliable of the three carriers covered here at 79.5% on time across 2,994 flights.
Key figures
On time
76.8%
Arrivals under 15 minutes late, of 5,510 completed flights
Avg delay
76 min
Across delayed arrivals only, not all flights
Cancelled
1.56%
National rate is 1.80%
Best carrier
American
79.5% on time across 2,994 flights
These figures cover 5,633 flights between June 2025 and May 2026. Beyond the headline rate, 8.0% of arrivals land a full hour or more behind schedule. That is the number that wrecks a connection, and it is not visible in an on-time percentage alone.
Carrier by carrier
Which airline is most reliable on PHX to ORD
The choice of carrier is not cosmetic here. American Airlines arrives on time 79.5% of the time; Southwest Airlines manages 60.5%. Sample sizes sit next to every figure, because a two-point gap across 484 flights means less than a ten-point one.
| Airline | Flights | On time | Avg delay | Cancelled | Grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| American Airlines | 2,994 | 79.5% | 75 min | 2.14% | B |
| United Airlines | 1,943 | 77.7% | 77 min | 0.46% | B+ |
| Frontier Airlinesthin sample | 212 | 67.5% | 116 min | 4.25% | C− |
| Southwest Airlines | 484 | 60.5% | 68 min | 1.24% | D |
The spread between American and Southwest is 19 points, wide enough that it should decide the booking. On a hundred trips that is 19 more arrivals inside the on-time window.
Departure window
The best time of day to leave
Departure time matters more here than the choice of carrier. The gap between the best and worst window is 22 points, against 19 points between the best and worst carrier. Each bar is the on-time rate for flights scheduled inside that window.
- 5am–8am1,099 flights90.0%
- 8am–11am1,180 flights77.8%
- 11am–2pm1,036 flights73.1%
- 2pm–5pm1,139 flights68.1%
- 5pm–8pm655 flights69.3%
- 8pm–5am524 flights82.0%
Scale runs 60% to 95%. Rows with fewer than 30 flights show a dash.
Book the early departure. Flights leaving between 5am–8am arrive on time 90.0% of the time, against 68.1% for the afternoon window. That is 22 points of difference for no extra money, and it comes from the same aircraft having had no earlier flight to fall behind on.
Across the year
When delays peak on this route
This route's year swings by 12 points from best month to worst, which is wide. An annual average tells you very little about the week you are actually flying, so read the strip rather than the headline if your dates are fixed.
July is the worst month at 72.6% on time, 12 points below February, the best at 84.7%. Summer afternoon convection and peak-season schedules land on the same weeks every year, so this is a pattern you can book around rather than a run of bad luck.
Across the week, Tuesday is the strongest day at 79.2% on time and Monday the weakest at 72.9%. 6 points is a smaller lever than departure hour, but it is free.
Delay causes
Why this route gets delayed
Carriers report a reason for every delay minute they cause, in five DOT categories. The split below is by minutes, not by number of flights, so a handful of very long weather delays weighs as much as many short ones. It covers 98,000 reported delay minutes.
- 34%National Airspace System
- 33%Late-arriving aircraft
- 31%Carrier
- 3%Extreme weather
- 0%Security
34% of delay minutes are charged to the National Airspace System: air traffic volume, runway configuration, ground stops. No carrier can price its way out of that, which is why airport choice moves the number here more than carrier choice does. That is 33,000 minutes out of 98,000, against a national NAS share of 21%.
The practical consequence: the 5am–8am departure is the one that starts clean. Its aircraft has no earlier leg to be late from, which is exactly why that window shows 90.0% on time here.
Cancellations sit at 1.56% against a national 1.80%, which is ordinary. Diversions add another 0.62%.
Connections and stage length
What a delay here actually costs
8.0% of arrivals land an hour or more late, close to the national 8.2%. That is the figure that decides a connection, and it says a 60 to 75 minute layover is reasonable here while anything under 45 minutes is a bet. Most delays on this route are the a little over an hour kind, which a normal layover absorbs.
The 1,440 miles between these two airports put this in the middle of the US network, around two and a half to three hours of block time. That is enough cruise to absorb a ten-minute late pushback and not enough to absorb thirty. It is also long enough that the aircraft usually flies three or four legs a day rather than six, which slows how fast delay compounds.
The return leg is a different operation and performs like one: it runs 73.6% on time across 5,632 flights, 3 points below this direction. Departure banks, aircraft rotations and the congestion at each end all differ, so scoring the two directions together would average away a real 3 points of difference.
The sample behind these figures is 5,633 flights, enough that the headline rate is stable to within roughly a point. The hour-block and month splits divide that further, so read the thinner bars with more caution than the headline.
What to do with this
Booking this route
Put together: the calendar is the biggest lever here, not the carrier or the hour. February runs 84.7% on time and July 72.6%, a swing of 12 points. If the dates move at all, move them out of July before you think about anything else.
Common questions
PHX to ORD questions
How often is PHX to ORD delayed?
About one flight in four arrive at least 15 minutes late, which is the Department of Transportation's definition of a delayed arrival. That works out to 23.2% of the 5,633 flights in this analysis, against 22.6% nationally. Delayed flights are late by a little over an hour on average.
Which airline is most reliable on PHX to ORD?
American Airlines leads at 79.5% on time across 2,994 flights. Southwest Airlines is at the other end on 60.5%, a gap of 19 points. Sample size matters as much as the percentage: a rate built from a few hundred flights moves around far more than one built from ten thousand.
What time of day has the fewest delays on PHX to ORD?
The 5am–8am departure window is the strongest at 90.0% on time. The 2pm–5pm window is the weakest at 68.1%, 22 points behind. Later departures inherit delays from earlier flights the same aircraft has already flown, which is why the curve slopes the way it does.
How bad are July delays on PHX to ORD?
July is the weakest month at 72.6% on time, compared with 84.7% in February. Across the year that is 12 points between the best and worst months. Moving flexible dates out of that month is one of the few things that reliably helps.
Related
Where to go next
- ORD to PHX — the return legseparate record
- Phoenix Sky Harbor International (PHX) delay statistics
- Chicago O'Hare International (ORD) delay statistics
- American Airlines on-time record79.5%
- United Airlines on-time record77.7%
- Frontier Airlines on-time record67.5%
- Why the first flight of the morning is statistically safest
- The best time of day to fly, according to 7.05 million flight records
Direction matters. PHX to ORD and ORD to PHX are scored separately because they are separate operations, with different departure banks and different aircraft. Compare the return leg.
Source: US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics, on-time performance data, June 2025 to May 2026. Updated monthly. How this data is collected.