Route reliability record
MSP→EWR
Minneapolis to Newark
- Flights
- 2,225
- Period
- September 2025 to August 2026
- Distance
- 1,008 mi
- Carriers
- 4
This route carries a cancellation problem, not just a delay problem: 4.6% of scheduled flights never operate, against 1.9% nationally. Of the ones that do fly, about four flights in five arrive on time, worth a B− overall. The punctuality figure counts only flights that actually departed, so it flatters an operation that cancels this often. That rests on 2,225 MSP to EWR flights, of which Republic Airways flew 481 at 84.4% on time.
Best time to fly MSP to EWR: a 5am–8am departure, ideally on a Wednesday. Flights in that window arrived on time 90.0% of the time and Wednesday flights 83.6%, against 79.5% for the route overall.
Republic Airways is the most reliable of the three carriers covered here at 84.4% on time across 481 flights.
Key figures
On time
79.5%
Arrivals under 15 minutes late, of 2,109 completed flights
Avg delay
75 min
Across delayed arrivals only, not all flights
Cancelled
4.63%
National rate is 1.89%
Best carrier
Republic
84.4% on time across 481 flights
These figures cover 2,225 flights between September 2025 and August 2026. Beyond the headline rate, 9.0% of arrivals land a full hour or more behind schedule, against 8.3% nationally.
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Carrier by carrier
Which airline is most reliable on MSP to EWR
The choice of carrier is not cosmetic here. Republic Airways arrives on time 84.4% of the time; Delta Air Lines manages 78.1%. Sample sizes sit next to every figure, because a two-point gap across 1,240 flights means less than a ten-point one.
| Airline | Flights | On time | Avg delay | Cancelled | Grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republic Airways | 481 | 84.4% | 67 min | 6.44% | B− |
| United Airlines | 495 | 78.4% | 100 min | 3.43% | B− |
| Delta Air Lines | 1,240 | 78.1% | 68 min | 4.44% | B− |
| SkyWest Airlinesthin sample | 9 | 77.8% | 32 min | 0.00% | B+ |
Republic Airways cancels 6.4% of what it schedules here, the highest in the table. A cancelled flight never appears in an on-time rate, so read that column alongside the punctuality one rather than after it.
Flight by flight
Flights on MSP to EWR
The flight numbers below flew this route at least 250 times in the period, busiest first. Each has its own record, with its schedule and delay causes.
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Best ways to make this trip
The most reliable ways to fly Minneapolis to Newark
Every airline on this route and on the routes between nearby airports, ranked by how often a scheduled flight actually operated and arrived on time. 1 of the top 4 use a different airport at one end.
| Option | Airline | Success | On time | Cancelled | Best departure | Most punctual flight |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. MSP → EWRMinneapolis to Newark | Republic Airways | 79.0% | 84.4% | 6.44% | 5am–8am, Mon | — |
| 2. MSP → LGAMinneapolis to New York | Delta Air Lines | 76.5% | 78.8% | 2.93% | 5am–8am, Wed (route) | DL 2719 07:00 |
| 3. MSP → EWRMinneapolis to Newark | United Airlines | 75.7% | 78.4% | 3.43% | 5am–8am, Tue | — |
| 4. MSP → EWRMinneapolis to Newark | Delta Air Lines | 74.6% | 78.1% | 4.44% | 5am–8am, Wed | DL 2864 07:10 |
Success is the share of scheduled flights that operated and arrived less than 15 minutes late, so a cancelled flight counts against it. “(route)” means the best time comes from every carrier on the route rather than this airline alone.
Departure window
The best time of day to leave
Departure time matters more here than the choice of carrier. The gap between the best and worst window is 24 points, against 6 points between the best and worst carrier.
- 5am–8am634 flights90.0%
- 8am–11am283 flights82.9%
- 11am–2pm358 flights82.7%
- 2pm–5pm268 flights66.0%
- 5pm–8pm340 flights71.6%
- 8pm–5am342 flights71.5%
Scale runs 60% to 95%.
Book the early departure. Flights leaving between 5am–8am arrive on time 90.0% of the time, against 66.0% for the afternoon window. That is 24 points of difference for no extra money, and it comes from the same aircraft having had no earlier flight to fall behind on. The 5am–8am window is the busiest, with 634 flights scheduled in it.
Explore
Filter MSP to EWR by airline, time, month and day
Pick a breakdown and a carrier. The dashed mark on each row is the same slice for every US flight.
On MSP to EWR, the best departure window is 5am–8am at 90.0% on time and the worst is 2pm–5pm at 66.0%, a wide gap of 24.0 points. All US flights leaving 5am–8am ran 89.3%.
- 5–8am90.0%
- 8–11am82.9%
- 11am–2pm82.7%
- 2–5pm66.0%
- 5–8pm71.6%
- 8pm–5am71.5%
best all US flightsScale 60% to 95%.
Across the year
When delays peak on this route
This route's year swings by 37 points from best month to worst, which is wide. An annual average tells you very little about the week you are actually flying, so read the strip rather than the headline if your dates are fixed.
December is the weak month at 57.8% on time, against 94.4% in May. Winter delays cluster: a single storm system can account for most of a month's shortfall, so an average December hides both very good weeks and genuinely unflyable days. August was the busiest month here, with 203 flights.
Across the week, Wednesday is the strongest day at 83.6% on time and Sunday the weakest at 74.6%, a spread of 9 points.
Delay causes
Why this route gets delayed
National Airspace System accounts for 49% of the 33,000 delay minutes carriers reported here, and the remaining four split what is left.
- 49%National Airspace System
- 33%Carrier
- 17%Late-arriving aircraft
- 2%Extreme weather
49% of delay minutes are charged to the National Airspace System: air traffic volume, runway configuration, ground stops. No carrier can price its way out of that, which is why airport choice moves the number here more than carrier choice does. That is 16,000 minutes out of 33,000, against a national NAS share of 21%. The split is drawn from 32,514 reported delay minutes.
Cancellations run at 4.63%, against 1.89% nationally. That is about one flight in twenty cancelled outright. A cancelled flight is invisible in every on-time figure on this page, so the punctuality numbers above describe only the flights that actually operated.
Connections and stage length
What a delay here actually costs
9.0% of arrivals land a full hour or more behind schedule, against 8.3% nationally. Ninety minutes is the honest minimum for a connection here, and two hours if the onward flight is on a separate ticket.
The 1,008 miles between these two airports put this in the middle of the US network, around two and a half to three hours of block time. That is enough cruise to absorb a ten-minute late pushback and not enough to absorb thirty.
The return leg runs 79.3% on time across 2,226 flights, within half a point of this direction. The two legs are scored separately because they usually differ; on this city pair they happen not to.
The sample behind these figures is 2,225 flights, enough that the headline rate is stable to within roughly a point. The hour-block and month splits divide that further, so read the thinner bars with more caution than the headline.
Work out the risk of missing a connection in EWR after this flight
What to do with this
Booking this route
Put together: the delay figures matter less here than the 4.63% cancellation rate. A late arrival costs you a little over an hour; a cancelled flight costs you the day. Book the 5am–8am departure so there is still a schedule behind you if it goes wrong, and treat a same-day connection as optimistic. 2,109 completed flights over 12 months sit behind that.
Common questions
MSP to EWR questions
How often is MSP to EWR delayed?
About one flight in five arrives at least 15 minutes late, which is the Department of Transportation's definition of a delayed arrival. That works out to 20.5% of the 2,225 flights in this analysis, against 22.7% nationally. Delayed flights are late by a little over an hour on average.
Which airline is most reliable on MSP to EWR?
Republic Airways leads at 84.4% on time across 481 flights. Delta Air Lines is at the other end on 78.1%, a gap of 6 points. Sample size matters as much as the percentage: a rate built from a few hundred flights moves around far more than one built from ten thousand.
What time of day has the fewest delays on MSP to EWR?
The 5am–8am departure window is the strongest at 90.0% on time. The 2pm–5pm window is the weakest at 66.0%, 24 points behind. Later departures inherit delays from earlier flights the same aircraft has already flown, which is why the curve slopes the way it does.
How bad are December delays on MSP to EWR?
December is the weakest month at 57.8% on time, compared with 94.4% in May. Across the year that is 37 points between the best and worst months. Moving flexible dates out of that month is one of the few things that reliably helps.
Related
Where to go next
- EWR to MSP — the return legseparate record
- Minneapolis-St Paul International (MSP) delay statistics
- Newark Liberty International (EWR) delay statistics
- Republic Airways on MSP to EWR84.4%
- United Airlines on MSP to EWR78.4%
- Delta Air Lines on MSP to EWR78.1%
- MSP to ORD, a related route70.0%
- MCO to EWR, a related route75.0%
- MSP to DEN, a related route77.8%
- Republic Airways on-time record84.4%
- United Airlines on-time record78.4%
- Delta Air Lines on-time record78.1%
- The US routes with the most cancellations
- What a cancellation rate actually tells you (and what it hides)
Direction matters. MSP to EWR and EWR to MSP are scored separately because they are separate operations, with different departure banks and different aircraft. Compare the return leg.
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Source: US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics, on-time performance data, September 2025 to August 2026. Last updated ; recomputed monthly. How this data is collected.