Route reliability record
EWR→MSP
Newark to Minneapolis
- Flights
- 2,226
- Period
- September 2025 to August 2026
- Distance
- 1,008 mi
- Carriers
- 4
This route carries a cancellation problem, not just a delay problem: 4.6% of scheduled flights never operate, against 1.9% nationally. Of the ones that do fly, about four flights in five arrive on time, worth a B− overall. The punctuality figure counts only flights that actually departed, so it flatters an operation that cancels this often. That rests on 2,226 EWR to MSP flights, of which Republic Airways flew 481 at 86.8% on time.
Best time to fly EWR to MSP: a 5am–8am departure, ideally on a Wednesday. Flights in that window arrived on time 87.0% of the time and Wednesday flights 84.9%, against 79.3% for the route overall.
Republic Airways is the most reliable of the three carriers covered here at 86.8% on time across 481 flights.
Key figures
On time
79.3%
Arrivals under 15 minutes late, of 2,118 completed flights
Avg delay
97 min
Across delayed arrivals only, not all flights
Cancelled
4.58%
National rate is 1.89%
Best carrier
Republic
86.8% on time across 481 flights
These figures cover 2,226 flights between September 2025 and August 2026. Beyond the headline rate, 8.6% of arrivals land a full hour or more behind schedule, against 8.3% nationally.
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Carrier by carrier
Which airline is most reliable on EWR to MSP
The choice of carrier is not cosmetic here. Republic Airways arrives on time 86.8% of the time; United Airlines manages 73.3%. Sample sizes sit next to every figure, because a two-point gap across 496 flights means less than a ten-point one.
| Airline | Flights | On time | Avg delay | Cancelled | Grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republic Airways | 481 | 86.8% | 50 min | 6.44% | A− |
| Delta Air Lines | 1,240 | 79.0% | 116 min | 4.60% | B− |
| United Airlines | 496 | 73.3% | 83 min | 2.82% | C |
| SkyWest Airlinesthin sample | 9 | 66.7% | 25 min | 0.00% | C+ |
Republic Airways cancels 6.4% of what it schedules here, the highest in the table. A cancelled flight never appears in an on-time rate, so read that column alongside the punctuality one rather than after it.
Flight by flight
Flights on EWR to MSP
The flight numbers below flew this route at least 250 times in the period, busiest first. Each has its own record, with its schedule and delay causes.
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Best ways to make this trip
The most reliable ways to fly Newark to Minneapolis
Every airline on this route and on the routes between nearby airports, ranked by how often a scheduled flight actually operated and arrived on time. 1 of the top 4 use a different airport at one end.
| Option | Airline | Success | On time | Cancelled | Best departure | Most punctual flight |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. EWR → MSPNewark to Minneapolis | Republic Airways | 81.2% | 86.8% | 6.44% | 2pm–5pm, Thu | — |
| 2. LGA → MSPNew York to Minneapolis | Delta Air Lines | 79.2% | 81.6% | 2.93% | 5am–8am, Wed (route) | DL 2510 06:00 |
| 3. EWR → MSPNewark to Minneapolis | Delta Air Lines | 75.4% | 79.0% | 4.60% | 5am–8am, Wed | DL 1641 06:15 |
| 4. EWR → MSPNewark to Minneapolis | United Airlines | 71.2% | 73.3% | 2.82% | 5am–8am, Fri | — |
Success is the share of scheduled flights that operated and arrived less than 15 minutes late, so a cancelled flight counts against it. “(route)” means the best time comes from every carrier on the route rather than this airline alone.
Departure window
The best time of day to leave
Departure time matters more here than the choice of carrier. The gap between the best and worst window is 20 points, against 14 points between the best and worst carrier.
- 5am–8am475 flights87.0%
- 8am–11am231 flights86.6%
- 11am–2pm364 flights82.3%
- 2pm–5pm529 flights78.5%
- 5pm–8pm348 flights67.1%
- 8pm–5am279 flights73.0%
Scale runs 60% to 90%.
Book the early departure. Flights leaving between 5am–8am arrive on time 87.0% of the time, against 67.1% for the evening window. That is 20 points of difference for no extra money, and it comes from the same aircraft having had no earlier flight to fall behind on. The 2pm–5pm window is the busiest, with 529 flights scheduled in it.
Explore
Filter EWR to MSP by airline, time, month and day
Pick a breakdown and a carrier. The dashed mark on each row is the same slice for every US flight.
On EWR to MSP, the best departure window is 5am–8am at 87.0% on time and the worst is 5pm–8pm at 67.1%, a wide gap of 19.9 points. All US flights leaving 5am–8am ran 89.3%.
- 5–8am87.0%
- 8–11am86.6%
- 11am–2pm82.3%
- 2–5pm78.5%
- 5–8pm67.1%
- 8pm–5am73.0%
best all US flightsScale 60% to 95%.
Across the year
When delays peak on this route
This route's year swings by 21 points from best month to worst, which is wide. An annual average tells you very little about the week you are actually flying, so read the strip rather than the headline if your dates are fixed.
December is the weak month at 69.2% on time, against 89.7% in April. Winter delays cluster: a single storm system can account for most of a month's shortfall, so an average December hides both very good weeks and genuinely unflyable days. August was the busiest month here, with 204 flights.
Across the week, Wednesday is the strongest day at 84.9% on time and Sunday the weakest at 73.8%, a spread of 11 points.
Delay causes
Why this route gets delayed
Carrier accounts for 42% of the 42,000 delay minutes carriers reported here, and the remaining four split what is left.
- 42%Carrier
- 34%Late-arriving aircraft
- 18%National Airspace System
- 6%Extreme weather
The largest share of delay minutes, 42%, falls under carrier control: crew scheduling, maintenance, fuelling, baggage. It accounts for 18,000 of the 42,000 delay minutes reported here. The split is drawn from 42,469 reported delay minutes.
The practical consequence: the 5am–8am departure is the one that starts clean. Its aircraft has no earlier leg to be late from, which is exactly why that window shows 87.0% on time here.
Cancellations run at 4.58%, against 1.89% nationally. That is roughly one flight in twenty cancelled outright. A cancelled flight is invisible in every on-time figure on this page, so the punctuality numbers above describe only the flights that actually operated.
Connections and stage length
What a delay here actually costs
8.6% of arrivals land an hour or more late, close to the national 8.3%, so a 60 to 75 minute layover is reasonable here while anything under 45 minutes is a bet. Most delays on this route last an hour and a half, which a normal layover absorbs.
The 1,008 miles between these two airports put this in the middle of the US network, around two and a half to three hours of block time. That is enough cruise to absorb a ten-minute late pushback and not enough to absorb thirty.
The return leg runs 79.5% on time across 2,225 flights, within half a point of this direction. The two legs are scored separately because they usually differ; on this city pair they happen not to.
The sample behind these figures is 2,226 flights, enough that the headline rate is stable to within roughly a point. The hour-block and month splits divide that further, so read the thinner bars with more caution than the headline.
Work out the risk of missing a connection in MSP after this flight
What to do with this
Booking this route
Put together: the delay figures matter less here than the 4.58% cancellation rate. A late arrival costs you an hour and a half; a cancelled flight costs you the day. Book the 5am–8am departure so there is still a schedule behind you if it goes wrong, and treat a same-day connection as optimistic. 2,118 completed flights over 12 months sit behind that.
Common questions
EWR to MSP questions
How often is EWR to MSP delayed?
About one flight in five arrives at least 15 minutes late, which is the Department of Transportation's definition of a delayed arrival. That works out to 20.7% of the 2,226 flights in this analysis, against 22.7% nationally. Delayed flights are late by an hour and a half on average.
Which airline is most reliable on EWR to MSP?
Republic Airways leads at 86.8% on time across 481 flights. United Airlines is at the other end on 73.3%, a gap of 14 points. Sample size matters as much as the percentage: a rate built from a few hundred flights moves around far more than one built from ten thousand.
What time of day has the fewest delays on EWR to MSP?
The 5am–8am departure window is the strongest at 87.0% on time. The 5pm–8pm window is the weakest at 67.1%, 20 points behind. Later departures inherit delays from earlier flights the same aircraft has already flown, which is why the curve slopes the way it does.
How bad are December delays on EWR to MSP?
December is the weakest month at 69.2% on time, compared with 89.7% in April. Across the year that is 21 points between the best and worst months. Moving flexible dates out of that month is one of the few things that reliably helps.
Related
Where to go next
- MSP to EWR — the return legseparate record
- Newark Liberty International (EWR) delay statistics
- Minneapolis-St Paul International (MSP) delay statistics
- Republic Airways on EWR to MSP86.8%
- Delta Air Lines on EWR to MSP79.0%
- United Airlines on EWR to MSP73.3%
- EWR to MCO, a related route77.9%
- ORD to MSP, a related route69.9%
- EWR to ATL, a related route76.9%
- Republic Airways on-time record86.8%
- Delta Air Lines on-time record79.0%
- United Airlines on-time record73.3%
- The US routes with the most cancellations
- Same route, different airline: where the carrier you pick matters most
Direction matters. EWR to MSP and MSP to EWR are scored separately because they are separate operations, with different departure banks and different aircraft. Compare the return leg.
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Source: US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics, on-time performance data, September 2025 to August 2026. Last updated ; recomputed monthly. How this data is collected.