Route reliability record
JFK→BNA
New York to Nashville
- Flights
- 1,412
- Period
- September 2025 to August 2026
- Distance
- 765 mi
- Carriers
- 2
This route carries a cancellation problem, not just a delay problem: 5.2% of scheduled flights never operate, against 1.9% nationally. Of the ones that do fly, close to three flights in four arrive on time, worth a C− overall. The punctuality figure counts only flights that actually departed, so it flatters an operation that cancels this often. That rests on 1,412 JFK to BNA flights, of which Republic Airways flew 865 at 76.5% on time.
Best time to fly JFK to BNA: a 5am–8am departure, ideally on a Tuesday. Flights in that window arrived on time 87.6% of the time and Tuesday flights 78.1%, against 74.4% for the route overall.
The US average over the same twelve months is 77.3%, so there is little to separate this route from the country as a whole. The variation that matters here is internal: which carrier, and what time of day.
Key figures
On time
74.4%
Arrivals under 15 minutes late, of 1,334 completed flights
Avg delay
71 min
Across delayed arrivals only, not all flights
Cancelled
5.17%
National rate is 1.89%
Best carrier
Republic
76.5% on time across 865 flights
These figures cover 1,412 flights between September 2025 and August 2026. Beyond the headline rate, 10.7% of arrivals land a full hour or more behind schedule, against 8.3% nationally.
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Carrier by carrier
Which airline is most reliable on JFK to BNA
The two carriers here are closely matched: 6 points separate the best from the worst. At that spread, schedule and price are better tie-breakers than reliability. Sample sizes are shown so you can see which rows are worth weighing.
| Airline | Flights | On time | Avg delay | Cancelled | Grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republic Airways | 865 | 76.5% | 77 min | 4.05% | B− |
| JetBlue Airways | 547 | 70.8% | 64 min | 6.95% | C− |
JetBlue Airways cancels 7.0% of what it schedules here, the highest in the table. A cancelled flight never appears in an on-time rate, so read that column alongside the punctuality one rather than after it.
Flight by flight
Flights on JFK to BNA
The flight numbers below flew this route at least 250 times in the period, busiest first. Each has its own record, with its schedule and delay causes.
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Best ways to make this trip
The most reliable ways to fly New York to Nashville
Every airline on this route and on the routes between nearby airports, ranked by how often a scheduled flight actually operated and arrived on time. 3 of the top 5 use a different airport at one end.
| Option | Airline | Success | On time | Cancelled | Best departure | Most punctual flight |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. JFK → BNANew York to Nashville | Republic Airways | 73.4% | 76.5% | 4.05% | 5am–8am, Mon | YX 4710 15:59 |
| 2. EWR → BNANewark to Nashville | United Airlines | 71.1% | 73.2% | 2.84% | 5am–8am, Tue | UA 1428 07:30 |
| 3. LGA → BNANew York to Nashville | Republic Airways | 70.0% | 74.4% | 5.91% | 5am–8am, Sat | — |
| 4. LGA → BNANew York to Nashville | Delta Air Lines | 67.3% | 70.3% | 4.22% | 5am–8am, Fri | — |
| 5. JFK → BNANew York to Nashville | JetBlue Airways | 65.9% | 70.8% | 6.95% | 5am–8am, Tue | B6 1173 10:37 |
Success is the share of scheduled flights that operated and arrived less than 15 minutes late, so a cancelled flight counts against it. “(route)” means the best time comes from every carrier on the route rather than this airline alone.
Departure window
The best time of day to leave
Departure time matters more here than the choice of carrier. The gap between the best and worst window is 23 points, against 6 points between the best and worst carrier.
- 5am–8am115 flights87.6%
- 8am–11am326 flights77.6%
- 11am–2pm252 flights79.2%
- 2pm–5pm485 flights69.7%
- 5pm–8pm35 flights64.5%
- 8pm–5am199 flights67.6%
Scale runs 55% to 95%.
The 5pm–8pm window is where this operation falls apart: 64.5% on time, against 87.6% for the 5am–8am slot. By evening the aircraft flying these rotations have absorbed a full day of small delays and there is no slack left to recover in. The 2pm–5pm window is the busiest, with 485 flights scheduled in it.
Explore
Filter JFK to BNA by airline, time, month and day
Pick a breakdown and a carrier. The dashed mark on each row is the same slice for every US flight.
On JFK to BNA, the best departure window is 5am–8am at 87.6% on time and the worst is 5pm–8pm at 64.5%, a wide gap of 23.1 points. All US flights leaving 5am–8am ran 89.3%.
- 5–8am87.6%
- 8–11am77.6%
- 11am–2pm79.2%
- 2–5pm69.7%
- 5–8pm64.5%
- 8pm–5am67.6%
best all US flightsScale 55% to 95%.
Across the year
When delays peak on this route
This route's year swings by 24 points from best month to worst, which is wide. An annual average tells you very little about the week you are actually flying, so read the strip rather than the headline if your dates are fixed.
July is the worst month at 60.8% on time, 24 points below May, the best at 85.1%. Summer afternoon convection and peak-season schedules land on the same weeks every year, so this is a pattern you can book around rather than a run of bad luck. October was the busiest month here, with 157 flights.
Across the week, Tuesday is the strongest day at 78.1% on time and Thursday the weakest at 68.0%, a spread of 10 points.
Delay causes
Why this route gets delayed
Carriers report a reason for every delay minute they cause, in five DOT categories. The split below is by minutes, not by number of flights, so a handful of very long weather delays weighs as much as many short ones. It covers 24,000 reported delay minutes.
- 39%Late-arriving aircraft
- 32%National Airspace System
- 22%Carrier
- 7%Extreme weather
- 0%Security
39% of delay minutes trace back to a late-arriving aircraft, meaning the plane was already behind before it got here. Across 24,000 reported delay minutes here, that single category outweighs weather by 5 to one. The split is drawn from 24,315 reported delay minutes.
The practical consequence: the 5am–8am departure is the one that starts clean. Its aircraft has no earlier leg to be late from, which is exactly why that window shows 87.6% on time here.
Cancellations run at 5.17%, against 1.89% nationally. That is about one flight in twenty cancelled outright. A cancelled flight is invisible in every on-time figure on this page, so the punctuality numbers above describe only the flights that actually operated.
Connections and stage length
What a delay here actually costs
10.7% of arrivals land a full hour or more behind schedule, against 8.3% nationally. Ninety minutes is the honest minimum for a connection here, and two hours if the onward flight is on a separate ticket.
The 765 miles between these two airports put this in the middle of the US network, around two and a half to three hours of block time. That is enough cruise to absorb a ten-minute late pushback and not enough to absorb thirty.
The return leg runs 76.4% on time across 1,416 flights, within 2 points of this direction. The two legs are scored separately because they usually differ; on this city pair they happen not to.
The sample behind these figures is 1,412 flights, enough that the headline rate is stable to within roughly a point. The hour-block and month splits divide that further, so read the thinner bars with more caution than the headline.
Work out the risk of missing a connection in BNA after this flight
What to do with this
Booking this route
Put together: the delay figures matter less here than the 5.17% cancellation rate. A late arrival costs you a little over an hour; a cancelled flight costs you the day. Book the 5am–8am departure so there is still a schedule behind you if it goes wrong, and treat a same-day connection as optimistic. 1,334 completed flights over 12 months sit behind that.
Common questions
JFK to BNA questions
How often is JFK to BNA delayed?
About one flight in four arrives at least 15 minutes late, which is the Department of Transportation's definition of a delayed arrival. That works out to 25.6% of the 1,412 flights in this analysis, against 22.7% nationally. Delayed flights are late by a little over an hour on average.
Which airline is most reliable on JFK to BNA?
Republic Airways leads at 76.5% on time across 865 flights. JetBlue Airways is at the other end on 70.8%, a gap of 6 points. Sample size matters as much as the percentage: a rate built from a few hundred flights moves around far more than one built from ten thousand.
What time of day has the fewest delays on JFK to BNA?
The 5am–8am departure window is the strongest at 87.6% on time. The 5pm–8pm window is the weakest at 64.5%, 23 points behind. Later departures inherit delays from earlier flights the same aircraft has already flown, which is why the curve slopes the way it does.
How bad are July delays on JFK to BNA?
July is the weakest month at 60.8% on time, compared with 85.1% in May. Across the year that is 24 points between the best and worst months. Moving flexible dates out of that month is one of the few things that reliably helps.
Related
Where to go next
- BNA to JFK — the return legseparate record
- John F. Kennedy International (JFK) delay statistics
- Nashville International (BNA) delay statistics
- Republic Airways on JFK to BNA76.5%
- JetBlue Airways on JFK to BNA70.8%
- JFK to LAX, a related route75.4%
- ORD to BNA, a related route69.2%
- JFK to SFO, a related route71.4%
- Republic Airways on-time record76.5%
- JetBlue Airways on-time record70.8%
- The US routes with the most cancellations
- Why the first flight of the morning is statistically safest
Direction matters. JFK to BNA and BNA to JFK are scored separately because they are separate operations, with different departure banks and different aircraft. Compare the return leg.
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Source: US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics, on-time performance data, September 2025 to August 2026. Last updated ; recomputed monthly. How this data is collected.