Route reliability record
PHX→DTW
Phoenix to Detroit
- Flights
- 2,426
- Period
- July 2025 to June 2026
- Distance
- 1,671 mi
- Carriers
- 5
This route lands a B+, 3 points better than the national rate of 77.6%. About one flight in five arrive 15 minutes late or worse, and those flights are late by a little over an hour on average. That is a workable record, not a spotless one. That rests on 2,426 flights, of which Delta Air Lines flew 1,331 at 84.3% on time.
The US average over the same twelve months is 77.6%, so there is little to separate this route from the country as a whole. The variation that matters here is internal: which carrier, and what time of day.
Key figures
On time
80.7%
Arrivals under 15 minutes late, of 2,399 completed flights
Avg delay
81 min
Across delayed arrivals only, not all flights
Cancelled
0.78%
National rate is 1.81%
Best carrier
Delta
84.3% on time across 1,331 flights
These figures cover 2,426 flights between July 2025 and June 2026. The median arrival is 7 minutes early, which is the part an average hides: most flights here are fine, and the on-time rate is decided by a tail of badly late ones. On-time means under 15 minutes late, the DOT's own threshold.
Carrier by carrier
Which airline is most reliable on PHX to DTW
The choice of carrier is not cosmetic here. Delta Air Lines arrives on time 84.3% of the time; American Airlines manages 76.2%. Sample sizes sit next to every figure, because a two-point gap across 628 flights means less than a ten-point one.
| Airline | Flights | On time | Avg delay | Cancelled | Grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Delta Air Lines | 1,331 | 84.3% | 82 min | 0.68% | B+ |
| Spirit Airlinesthin sample | 125 | 80.5% | 114 min | 1.60% | B |
| Frontier Airlinesthin sample | 312 | 76.5% | 85 min | 1.28% | B |
| American Airlines | 628 | 76.2% | 76 min | 0.64% | B+ |
| Southwest Airlinesthin sample | 30 | 56.7% | 38 min | 0.00% | D+ |
Delta leads American by 8 points. Real, but small enough that a better departure time on the weaker carrier can outweigh it.
Departure window
The best time of day to leave
Departure time matters more here than the choice of carrier. The gap between the best and worst window is 23 points, against 8 points between the best and worst carrier. Each bar is the on-time rate for flights scheduled inside that window.
- 5am–8am411 flights91.4%
- 8am–11am429 flights83.2%
- 11am–2pm406 flights82.1%
- 2pm–5pm525 flights74.9%
- 5pm–8pm148 flights68.3%
- 8pm–5am507 flights78.2%
Scale runs 60% to 95%. Rows with fewer than 30 flights show a dash.
Book the early departure. Flights leaving between 5am–8am arrive on time 91.4% of the time, against 68.3% for the evening window. That is 23 points of difference for no extra money, and it comes from the same aircraft having had no earlier flight to fall behind on. The 2pm–5pm window is the busiest, with 525 flights scheduled in it.
Across the year
When delays peak on this route
This route's year swings by 14 points from best month to worst, which is wide. An annual average tells you very little about the week you are actually flying, so read the strip rather than the headline if your dates are fixed.
Delays peak in March, when the on-time rate falls to 72.0%. February is the strongest month at 86.2%. Moving a flexible trip across that boundary buys 14 points. July was the busiest month here, with 238 flights.
Across the week, Thursday is the strongest day at 85.9% on time and Saturday the weakest at 76.7%. 9 points is a smaller lever than departure hour, but it is free.
Delay causes
Why this route gets delayed
One category carries most of the weight here. Late-arriving aircraft accounts for 47% of the 38,000 delay minutes carriers reported, and the remaining four split what is left. The split is by minutes rather than by flights, so a few very long delays count for as much as many short ones.
- 47%Late-arriving aircraft
- 38%Carrier
- 11%National Airspace System
- 4%Extreme weather
47% of delay minutes trace back to a late-arriving aircraft, meaning the plane was already behind before it got here. That is a cascade, and cascades start small and grow through the day. Across 38,000 reported delay minutes here, that single category outweighs weather by 11 to one. It is the strongest argument for booking the first departure of the morning, when the aircraft has been sitting at the gate overnight with nothing to inherit. The split is drawn from 37,595 reported delay minutes.
The largest share of delay minutes, 38%, falls under carrier control: crew scheduling, maintenance, fuelling, baggage. Unlike weather, that is a management outcome, and it is the category where the gap between two carriers on the same schedule is genuinely earned. It accounts for 14,000 of the 38,000 delay minutes reported here.
Cancellations are rare at 0.78%, below the national 1.81% and low enough to earn the plus on the grade. Roughly one flight in 100 is called off; the risk here is arriving late, not not arriving.
Connections and stage length
What a delay here actually costs
6.8% of arrivals land an hour or more late, close to the national 8.1%. That is the figure that decides a connection, and it says a 60 to 75 minute layover is reasonable here while anything under 45 minutes is a bet. Most delays on this route are the a little over an hour kind, which a normal layover absorbs.
At 1,671 miles this is transcontinental flying, and long routes get a quiet structural advantage. Scheduled block time on a flight this length carries more padding in absolute minutes, so a twenty-minute late departure often still becomes an on-time arrival. Read the on-time rate here as slightly flattering next to a short-haul route with the same operational quality.
The return leg is a different operation and performs like one: it runs 76.6% on time across 2,425 flights, 4 points below this direction. Departure banks, aircraft rotations and the congestion at each end all differ, so scoring the two directions together would average away a real 4 points of difference.
The sample behind these figures is 2,426 flights, enough that the headline rate is stable to within roughly a point. The hour-block and month splits divide that further, so read the thinner bars with more caution than the headline.
What to do with this
Booking this route
Put together: the calendar is the biggest lever here, not the carrier or the hour. February runs 86.2% on time and March 72.0%, a swing of 14 points. If the dates move at all, move them out of March before you think about anything else. 2,399 completed flights over 12 months sit behind that.
Common questions
PHX to DTW questions
How often is PHX to DTW delayed?
About one flight in five arrive at least 15 minutes late, which is the Department of Transportation's definition of a delayed arrival. That works out to 19.3% of the 2,426 flights in this analysis, against 22.4% nationally. Delayed flights are late by a little over an hour on average.
Which airline is most reliable on PHX to DTW?
Delta Air Lines leads at 84.3% on time across 1,331 flights. American Airlines is at the other end on 76.2%, a gap of 8 points. Sample size matters as much as the percentage: a rate built from a few hundred flights moves around far more than one built from ten thousand.
What time of day has the fewest delays on PHX to DTW?
The 5am–8am departure window is the strongest at 91.4% on time. The 5pm–8pm window is the weakest at 68.3%, 23 points behind. Later departures inherit delays from earlier flights the same aircraft has already flown, which is why the curve slopes the way it does.
How bad are March delays on PHX to DTW?
March is the weakest month at 72.0% on time, compared with 86.2% in February. Across the year that is 14 points between the best and worst months. Moving flexible dates out of that month is one of the few things that reliably helps.
Related
Where to go next
- DTW to PHX — the return legseparate record
- Phoenix Sky Harbor International (PHX) delay statistics
- Detroit Metropolitan Wayne County (DTW) delay statistics
- Delta Air Lines on-time record84.3%
- Spirit Airlines on-time record80.5%
- Frontier Airlines on-time record76.5%
- Why the first flight of the morning is statistically safest
- The best time of day to fly, according to 7.04 million flight records
Direction matters. PHX to DTW and DTW to PHX are scored separately because they are separate operations, with different departure banks and different aircraft. Compare the return leg.
Source: US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics, on-time performance data, July 2025 to June 2026. Updated monthly. How this data is collected.