Route reliability record

PHX→BNA

Phoenix to Nashville

Flights: 2,369
Period: July 2025 to June 2026
Distance: 1,449 mi
Carriers: 3

This route sits in the middle of the pack with a C+. Close to three flights in four arrive on time by the DOT's definition, 4 points worse than the national rate of 77.6%. The late ones land about 50 minutes behind schedule. That rests on 2,369 flights, of which Southwest Airlines flew 1,799 at 74.5% on time.

The US average over the same twelve months is 77.6%, so there is little to separate this route from the country as a whole. The variation that matters here is internal: which carrier, and what time of day.

On time

73.9%

Arrivals under 15 minutes late, of 2,350 completed flights

Avg delay

51 min

Across delayed arrivals only, not all flights

Cancelled

0.63%

National rate is 1.81%

Best carrier

Southwest

74.5% on time across 1,799 flights

These figures cover 2,369 flights between July 2025 and June 2026. On-time means an arrival less than 15 minutes after the scheduled gate time, the same threshold the Department of Transportation uses in its own reports. Cancelled and diverted flights are excluded from the on-time rate and counted separately, which is why the cancellation column matters on its own.

Carrier by carrier

Which airline is most reliable on PHX to BNA

The two carriers here are closely matched: 3 points separate the best from the worst. At that spread, schedule and price are better tie-breakers than reliability. Sample sizes are shown so you can see which rows are worth weighing.

On-time performance by carrier on PHX to BNA
Airline	Flights	On time	Avg delay	Cancelled	Grade
Frontier Airlinesthin sample	4	100.0%	—	0.00%	A+
Southwest Airlines	1,799	74.5%	45 min	0.50%	C+
American Airlines	566	71.7%	66 min	1.06%	C

No carrier stands out. Southwest tops the table at 74.5%, 3 points clear of the bottom, which is inside the range this kind of sample moves year to year.

Departure window

The best time of day to leave

Departure time matters more here than the choice of carrier. The gap between the best and worst window is 29 points, against 3 points between the best and worst carrier. Each bar is the on-time rate for flights scheduled inside that window.

5am–8am497 flights91.3%
8am–11am467 flights79.2%
11am–2pm395 flights69.7%
2pm–5pm560 flights62.2%
5pm–8pm356 flights65.3%
8pm–5am94 flights75.5%

Scale runs 55% to 95%. Rows with fewer than 30 flights show a dash.

Book the early departure. Flights leaving between 5am–8am arrive on time 91.3% of the time, against 62.2% for the afternoon window. That is 29 points of difference for no extra money, and it comes from the same aircraft having had no earlier flight to fall behind on. The 2pm–5pm window is the busiest, with 560 flights scheduled in it.

Across the year

When delays peak on this route

This route's year swings by 24 points from best month to worst, which is wide. An annual average tells you very little about the week you are actually flying, so read the strip rather than the headline if your dates are fixed.

Darker means more delays. Figures are on-time percentages.August best, May worst

Delays peak in May, when the on-time rate falls to 61.6%. August is the strongest month at 85.8%. Moving a flexible trip across that boundary buys 24 points. October was the busiest month here, with 232 flights.

Across the week, Saturday is the strongest day at 81.9% on time and Thursday the weakest at 68.3%. 14 points is a smaller lever than departure hour, but it is free.

Delay causes

Why this route gets delayed

One category carries most of the weight here. Late-arriving aircraft accounts for 51% of the 31,000 delay minutes carriers reported, and the remaining four split what is left. The split is by minutes rather than by flights, so a few very long delays count for as much as many short ones.

Late-arriving aircraft
51%
Carrier
34%
National Airspace System
15%
Security
0%
Extreme weather
0%

51% of delay minutes trace back to a late-arriving aircraft, meaning the plane was already behind before it got here. That is a cascade, and cascades start small and grow through the day. Across 31,000 reported delay minutes here, that single category outweighs weather by 51 to one. It is the strongest argument for booking the first departure of the morning, when the aircraft has been sitting at the gate overnight with nothing to inherit. The split is drawn from 30,959 reported delay minutes.

The practical consequence: the 5am–8am departure is the one that starts clean. Its aircraft has no earlier leg to be late from, which is exactly why that window shows 91.3% on time here.

Cancellations are rare at 0.63%, below the national 1.81% and low enough to earn the plus on the grade. Roughly one flight in 100 is called off; the risk here is arriving late, not not arriving.

Connections and stage length

What a delay here actually costs

6.5% of arrivals land an hour or more late, close to the national 8.1%. That is the figure that decides a connection, and it says a 60 to 75 minute layover is reasonable here while anything under 45 minutes is a bet. Most delays on this route are the about 50 minutes kind, which a normal layover absorbs.

The 1,449 miles between these two airports put this in the middle of the US network, around two and a half to three hours of block time. That is enough cruise to absorb a ten-minute late pushback and not enough to absorb thirty. It is also long enough that the aircraft usually flies three or four legs a day rather than six, which slows how fast delay compounds.

The return leg is a different operation and performs like one: it runs 78.5% on time across 2,370 flights, 5 points above this direction. Departure banks, aircraft rotations and the congestion at each end all differ, so scoring the two directions together would average away a real 5 points of difference.

The sample behind these figures is 2,369 flights, enough that the headline rate is stable to within roughly a point. The hour-block and month splits divide that further, so read the thinner bars with more caution than the headline.

What to do with this

Booking this route

Put together: the calendar is the biggest lever here, not the carrier or the hour. August runs 85.8% on time and May 61.6%, a swing of 24 points. If the dates move at all, move them out of May before you think about anything else. 2,350 completed flights over 12 months sit behind that.

Common questions

PHX to BNA questions

How often is PHX to BNA delayed?

About one flight in four arrive at least 15 minutes late, which is the Department of Transportation's definition of a delayed arrival. That works out to 26.1% of the 2,369 flights in this analysis, against 22.4% nationally. Delayed flights are late by about 50 minutes on average.

Which airline is most reliable on PHX to BNA?

Southwest Airlines leads at 74.5% on time across 1,799 flights. American Airlines is at the other end on 71.7%, a gap of 3 points. Sample size matters as much as the percentage: a rate built from a few hundred flights moves around far more than one built from ten thousand.

What time of day has the fewest delays on PHX to BNA?

The 5am–8am departure window is the strongest at 91.3% on time. The 2pm–5pm window is the weakest at 62.2%, 29 points behind. Later departures inherit delays from earlier flights the same aircraft has already flown, which is why the curve slopes the way it does.

How bad are May delays on PHX to BNA?

May is the weakest month at 61.6% on time, compared with 85.8% in August. Across the year that is 24 points between the best and worst months. Moving flexible dates out of that month is one of the few things that reliably helps.

Where to go next

Direction matters. PHX to BNA and BNA to PHX are scored separately because they are separate operations, with different departure banks and different aircraft. Compare the return leg.

Source: US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics, on-time performance data, July 2025 to June 2026. Updated monthly. How this data is collected.

Key figures