Route reliability record

ORD→TPA

Chicago to Tampa

Flights: 3,217
Period: July 2025 to June 2026
Distance: 1,012 mi
Carriers: 7

This route sits in the middle of the pack with a C. Close to three flights in four arrive on time by the DOT's definition, 5 points worse than the national rate of 77.6%. The late ones land a little over an hour behind schedule. That rests on 3,217 flights, of which United Airlines flew 1,403 at 78.4% on time.

The national on-time rate over the same period is 77.6%, so this route runs 5 points behind the country as a whole. Across a thousand flights that is about 46 extra late arrivals.

On time

73.0%

Arrivals under 15 minutes late, of 3,163 completed flights

Avg delay

80 min

Across delayed arrivals only, not all flights

Cancelled

1.46%

National rate is 1.81%

Best carrier

United

78.4% on time across 1,403 flights

These figures cover 3,217 flights between July 2025 and June 2026. Beyond the headline rate, 10.5% of arrivals land a full hour or more behind schedule. That is the number that wrecks a connection, and it is not visible in an on-time percentage alone.

Carrier by carrier

Which airline is most reliable on ORD to TPA

The choice of carrier is not cosmetic here. United Airlines arrives on time 78.4% of the time; American Airlines manages 68.0%. Sample sizes sit next to every figure, because a two-point gap across 1,141 flights means less than a ten-point one.

On-time performance by carrier on ORD to TPA
Airline	Flights	On time	Avg delay	Cancelled	Grade
Republic Airwaysthin sample	1	100.0%	—	0.00%	A+
United Airlines	1,403	78.4%	71 min	0.50%	B+
Spirit Airlinesthin sample	283	71.3%	97 min	2.83%	C
Southwest Airlinesthin sample	214	71.2%	91 min	0.93%	C+
American Airlines	1,141	68.0%	70 min	1.93%	C
Frontier Airlinesthin sample	173	66.7%	153 min	4.62%	C−
Envoy Airthin sample	2	50.0%	16 min	0.00%	F+

United leads American by 10 points. Real, but small enough that a better departure time on the weaker carrier can outweigh it.

Departure window

The best time of day to leave

Departure time matters more here than the choice of carrier. The gap between the best and worst window is 21 points, against 10 points between the best and worst carrier. Each bar is the on-time rate for flights scheduled inside that window.

5am–8am497 flights85.3%
8am–11am564 flights76.0%
11am–2pm686 flights77.2%
2pm–5pm720 flights68.1%
5pm–8pm722 flights64.7%
8pm–5am28 flights—

Scale runs 55% to 90%. Rows with fewer than 30 flights show a dash.

The 5pm–8pm window is where this operation falls apart: 64.7% on time, against 85.3% for the 5am–8am slot. By evening the aircraft flying these rotations have absorbed a full day of small delays and there is no slack left to recover in. The 5pm–8pm window is the busiest, with 722 flights scheduled in it.

Across the year

When delays peak on this route

This route's year swings by 19 points from best month to worst, which is wide. An annual average tells you very little about the week you are actually flying, so read the strip rather than the headline if your dates are fixed.

Darker means more delays. Figures are on-time percentages.September best, March worst

September is the best month on the calendar at 82.0% on time. Shoulder season thins the schedule and takes the summer weather with it, and the operation gets its margin back. March was the busiest month here, with 341 flights.

Across the week, Tuesday is the strongest day at 82.1% on time and Sunday the weakest at 66.2%. 16 points is a smaller lever than departure hour, but it is free.

Delay causes

Why this route gets delayed

One category carries most of the weight here. Late-arriving aircraft accounts for 50% of the 68,000 delay minutes carriers reported, and the remaining four split what is left. The split is by minutes rather than by flights, so a few very long delays count for as much as many short ones.

Late-arriving aircraft
50%
National Airspace System
22%
Carrier
22%
Extreme weather
5%
Security
0%

50% of delay minutes trace back to a late-arriving aircraft, meaning the plane was already behind before it got here. That is a cascade, and cascades start small and grow through the day. Across 68,000 reported delay minutes here, that single category outweighs weather by 10 to one. It is the strongest argument for booking the first departure of the morning, when the aircraft has been sitting at the gate overnight with nothing to inherit. The split is drawn from 67,818 reported delay minutes.

The practical consequence: the 5am–8am departure is the one that starts clean. Its aircraft has no earlier leg to be late from, which is exactly why that window shows 85.3% on time here.

Cancellations sit at 1.46% against a national 1.81%, which is ordinary. Diversions add another 0.22%.

Connections and stage length

What a delay here actually costs

For anyone connecting, the number to weigh is not the on-time rate but the tail behind it. 10.5% of arrivals land a full hour or more behind schedule, against 8.1% nationally. A 45-minute layover does not survive that, and no amount of walking quickly changes it. Ninety minutes is the honest minimum here, and two hours if the onward flight is on a separate ticket.

The 1,012 miles between these two airports put this in the middle of the US network, around two and a half to three hours of block time. That is enough cruise to absorb a ten-minute late pushback and not enough to absorb thirty. It is also long enough that the aircraft usually flies three or four legs a day rather than six, which slows how fast delay compounds.

The return leg runs 72.8% on time across 3,214 flights, within half a point of this direction. The two legs are scored separately because they usually differ; on this city pair they happen not to.

The sample behind these figures is 3,217 flights, enough that the headline rate is stable to within roughly a point. The hour-block and month splits divide that further, so read the thinner bars with more caution than the headline.

What to do with this

Booking this route

Put together: the calendar is the biggest lever here, not the carrier or the hour. September runs 82.0% on time and March 62.8%, a swing of 19 points. If the dates move at all, move them out of March before you think about anything else. 3,163 completed flights over 12 months sit behind that.

Common questions

ORD to TPA questions

How often is ORD to TPA delayed?

About one flight in four arrive at least 15 minutes late, which is the Department of Transportation's definition of a delayed arrival. That works out to 27.0% of the 3,217 flights in this analysis, against 22.4% nationally. Delayed flights are late by a little over an hour on average.

Which airline is most reliable on ORD to TPA?

United Airlines leads at 78.4% on time across 1,403 flights. American Airlines is at the other end on 68.0%, a gap of 10 points. Sample size matters as much as the percentage: a rate built from a few hundred flights moves around far more than one built from ten thousand.

What time of day has the fewest delays on ORD to TPA?

The 5am–8am departure window is the strongest at 85.3% on time. The 5pm–8pm window is the weakest at 64.7%, 21 points behind. Later departures inherit delays from earlier flights the same aircraft has already flown, which is why the curve slopes the way it does.

How bad are March delays on ORD to TPA?

March is the weakest month at 62.8% on time, compared with 82.0% in September. Across the year that is 19 points between the best and worst months. Moving flexible dates out of that month is one of the few things that reliably helps.

Where to go next

Direction matters. ORD to TPA and TPA to ORD are scored separately because they are separate operations, with different departure banks and different aircraft. Compare the return leg.

Source: US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics, on-time performance data, July 2025 to June 2026. Updated monthly. How this data is collected.

Key figures