Route reliability record
MDW→PHX
Chicago to Phoenix
- Flights
- 2,719
- Period
- September 2025 to August 2026
- Distance
- 1,444 mi
- Carriers
- 2
This route sits in the middle of the pack with a C. Close to three flights in four arrive on time by the DOT's definition, 3 points worse than the national rate of 77.3%. The late ones land about an hour behind schedule. That rests on 2,719 MDW to PHX flights, with a median arrival 2 minutes early.
Best time to fly MDW to PHX: a 5am–8am departure, ideally on a Saturday. Flights in that window arrived on time 89.0% of the time and Saturday flights 80.1%, against 74.7% for the route overall.
The US average over the same twelve months is 77.3%, so there is little to separate this route from the country as a whole. The variation that matters here is internal: which carrier, and what time of day.
Key figures
On time
74.7%
Arrivals under 15 minutes late, of 2,669 completed flights
Avg delay
57 min
Across delayed arrivals only, not all flights
Cancelled
1.58%
National rate is 1.89%
Best carrier
Southwest
74.7% on time across 2,610 flights
These figures cover 2,719 flights between September 2025 and August 2026. The median arrival is 2 minutes early, which is the part an average hides: most flights here are fine, and the on-time rate is decided by a tail of badly late ones. On-time means under 15 minutes late, the DOT's own threshold.
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Carrier by carrier
Which airline is most reliable on MDW to PHX
Only one carrier clears this site's 365-flight floor here, so there is no comparison to draw. The table below is the full picture.
| Airline | Flights | On time | Avg delay | Cancelled | Grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frontier Airlinesthin sample | 109 | 75.7% | 153 min | 1.83% | B |
| Southwest Airlines | 2,610 | 74.7% | 53 min | 1.57% | C |
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Best ways to make this trip
The most reliable ways to fly Chicago to Phoenix
Every airline on this route and on the routes between nearby airports, ranked by how often a scheduled flight actually operated and arrived on time. 3 of the top 4 use a different airport at one end.
| Option | Airline | Success | On time | Cancelled | Best departure | Most punctual flight |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. ORD → PHXChicago to Phoenix | United Airlines | 77.9% | 78.3% | 0.55% | 5am–8am, Sat | UA 455 13:30 |
| 2. MDW → PHXChicago to Phoenix | Southwest Airlines | 73.5% | 74.7% | 1.57% | 5am–8am, Sat | — |
| 3. ORD → PHXChicago to Phoenix | American Airlines | 68.6% | 70.1% | 2.09% | 5am–8am, Sat | — |
| 4. ORD → PHXChicago to Phoenix | Southwest Airlines | 59.2% | 60.7% | 2.51% | 5am–8am, Tue | — |
Success is the share of scheduled flights that operated and arrived less than 15 minutes late, so a cancelled flight counts against it. “(route)” means the best time comes from every carrier on the route rather than this airline alone.
Departure window
The best time of day to leave
Departure time matters more here than the choice of carrier. The gap between the best and worst window is 28 points, against half a point between the best and worst carrier.
- 5am–8am580 flights89.0%
- 8am–11am489 flights84.7%
- 11am–2pm346 flights76.4%
- 2pm–5pm498 flights69.2%
- 5pm–8pm452 flights60.9%
- 8pm–5am354 flights61.0%
Scale runs 50% to 95%.
The 5pm–8pm window is where this operation falls apart: 60.9% on time, against 89.0% for the 5am–8am slot. By evening the aircraft flying these rotations have absorbed a full day of small delays and there is no slack left to recover in. The 5am–8am window is the busiest, with 580 flights scheduled in it.
Explore
Filter MDW to PHX by airline, time, month and day
Pick a breakdown and a carrier. The dashed mark on each row is the same slice for every US flight.
On MDW to PHX, the best departure window is 5am–8am at 89.0% on time and the worst is 5pm–8pm at 60.9%, a wide gap of 28.1 points. All US flights leaving 5am–8am ran 89.3%.
- 5–8am89.0%
- 8–11am84.7%
- 11am–2pm76.4%
- 2–5pm69.2%
- 5–8pm60.9%
- 8pm–5am61.0%
best all US flightsScale 50% to 95%.
Across the year
When delays peak on this route
This route's year swings by 32 points from best month to worst, which is wide. An annual average tells you very little about the week you are actually flying, so read the strip rather than the headline if your dates are fixed.
June is the worst month at 58.5% on time, 32 points below September, the best at 90.5%. Summer afternoon convection and peak-season schedules land on the same weeks every year, so this is a pattern you can book around rather than a run of bad luck. March was the busiest month here, with 283 flights.
Across the week, Saturday is the strongest day at 80.1% on time and Monday the weakest at 69.7%, a spread of 10 points.
Delay causes
Why this route gets delayed
Late-arriving aircraft accounts for 43% of the 38,000 delay minutes carriers reported here, and the remaining four split what is left.
- 43%Late-arriving aircraft
- 37%Carrier
- 15%National Airspace System
- 4%Extreme weather
- 1%Security
43% of delay minutes trace back to a late-arriving aircraft, meaning the plane was already behind before it got here. Across 38,000 reported delay minutes here, that single category outweighs weather by 11 to one. The split is drawn from 38,098 reported delay minutes.
The largest share of delay minutes, 37%, falls under carrier control: crew scheduling, maintenance, fuelling, baggage. It accounts for 14,000 of the 38,000 delay minutes reported here.
Cancellations sit at 1.58% against a national 1.89%, which is ordinary. Diversions add another 0.26%.
Connections and stage length
What a delay here actually costs
7.0% of arrivals land an hour or more late, close to the national 8.3%, so a 60 to 75 minute layover is reasonable here while anything under 45 minutes is a bet. Most delays on this route last about an hour, which a normal layover absorbs.
The 1,444 miles between these two airports put this in the middle of the US network, around two and a half to three hours of block time. That is enough cruise to absorb a ten-minute late pushback and not enough to absorb thirty.
The return leg is a different operation and performs like one: it runs 70.8% on time across 2,742 flights, 4 points below this direction. Departure banks, aircraft rotations and the congestion at each end all differ, so scoring the two directions together would average away a real 4 points of difference.
The sample behind these figures is 2,719 flights, enough that the headline rate is stable to within roughly a point. The hour-block and month splits divide that further, so read the thinner bars with more caution than the headline.
Work out the risk of missing a connection in PHX after this flight
What to do with this
Booking this route
Put together: the calendar is the biggest lever here, not the carrier or the hour. September runs 90.5% on time and June 58.5%, a swing of 32 points. If the dates move at all, move them out of June before you think about anything else. 2,669 completed flights over 12 months sit behind that.
Common questions
MDW to PHX questions
How often is MDW to PHX delayed?
About one flight in four arrives at least 15 minutes late, which is the Department of Transportation's definition of a delayed arrival. That works out to 25.3% of the 2,719 flights in this analysis, against 22.7% nationally. Delayed flights are late by about an hour on average.
How reliable is MDW to PHX compared with the rest of the country?
74.7% of flights arrive on time here against a national 77.3%, a difference of 3 points against it. That is worth a C on this site's grading scale.
What time of day has the fewest delays on MDW to PHX?
The 5am–8am departure window is the strongest at 89.0% on time. The 5pm–8pm window is the weakest at 60.9%, 28 points behind. Later departures inherit delays from earlier flights the same aircraft has already flown, which is why the curve slopes the way it does.
How bad are June delays on MDW to PHX?
June is the weakest month at 58.5% on time, compared with 90.5% in September. Across the year that is 32 points between the best and worst months. Moving flexible dates out of that month is one of the few things that reliably helps.
Related
Where to go next
- PHX to MDW — the return legseparate record
- Chicago Midway International (MDW) delay statistics
- Phoenix Sky Harbor International (PHX) delay statistics
- Frontier Airlines on MDW to PHX75.7%
- Southwest Airlines on MDW to PHX74.7%
- MDW to ATL, a related route78.7%
- DEN to PHX, a related route75.6%
- MDW to MCO, a related route75.2%
- Frontier Airlines on-time record75.7%
- Southwest Airlines on-time record74.7%
- Why the first flight of the morning is statistically safest
- The best time of day to fly, according to 7.05 million flight records
Direction matters. MDW to PHX and PHX to MDW are scored separately because they are separate operations, with different departure banks and different aircraft. Compare the return leg.
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Source: US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics, on-time performance data, September 2025 to August 2026. Last updated ; recomputed monthly. How this data is collected.