Route reliability record
MDW→BDL
Chicago to Hartford
- Flights
- 836
- Period
- September 2025 to August 2026
- Distance
- 776 mi
- Carriers
- 1
This route lands a B, about a point worse than the national rate of 77.3%. About one flight in four arrives 15 minutes late or worse, and those flights are late by about an hour on average. That rests on 836 MDW to BDL flights, with a median arrival 2 minutes early.
Best time to fly MDW to BDL: a 5am–8am departure, ideally on a Wednesday. Flights in that window arrived on time 91.3% of the time and Wednesday flights 84.7%, against 76.1% for the route overall.
The US average over the same twelve months is 77.3%, so there is little to separate this route from the country as a whole. The variation that matters here is internal: which carrier, and what time of day.
Key figures
On time
76.1%
Arrivals under 15 minutes late, of 823 completed flights
Avg delay
63 min
Across delayed arrivals only, not all flights
Cancelled
1.44%
National rate is 1.89%
Best carrier
Southwest
76.1% on time across 836 flights
These figures cover 836 flights between September 2025 and August 2026. Beyond the headline rate, 8.3% of arrivals land a full hour or more behind schedule, against 8.3% nationally.
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Carrier by carrier
Which airline is most reliable on MDW to BDL
Only one carrier clears this site's 365-flight floor here, so there is no comparison to draw. The table below is the full picture.
| Airline | Flights | On time | Avg delay | Cancelled | Grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Southwest Airlines | 836 | 76.1% | 63 min | 1.44% | B |
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Best ways to make this trip
The most reliable ways to fly Chicago to Hartford
Every airline on this route and on the routes between nearby airports, ranked by how often a scheduled flight actually operated and arrived on time. 3 of the top 4 use a different airport at one end.
| Option | Airline | Success | On time | Cancelled | Best departure | Most punctual flight |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. ORD → BDLChicago to Hartford | Republic Airways | 77.1% | 79.7% | 3.29% | 8am–11am, Thu | — |
| 2. MDW → BDLChicago to Hartford | Southwest Airlines | 75.0% | 76.1% | 1.44% | 5am–8am, Wed | — |
| 3. ORD → BDLChicago to Hartford | United Airlines | 71.2% | 72.1% | 1.19% | 5am–8am, Tue | UA 2195 11:03 |
| 4. ORD → BDLChicago to Hartford | American Airlines | 64.1% | 65.9% | 2.72% | 5am–8am, Tue | — |
Success is the share of scheduled flights that operated and arrived less than 15 minutes late, so a cancelled flight counts against it. “(route)” means the best time comes from every carrier on the route rather than this airline alone.
Departure window
The best time of day to leave
Departure time matters more here than the choice of carrier. The gap between the best and worst window is 42 points, against half a point between the best and worst carrier.
- 5am–8am127 flights91.3%
- 8am–11am129 flights88.2%
- 11am–2pm241 flights80.0%
- 2pm–5pm31 flights83.9%
- 5pm–8pm259 flights62.6%
- 8pm–5am49 flights48.9%
Scale runs 40% to 95%.
The 8pm–5am window is where this operation falls apart: 48.9% on time, against 91.3% for the 5am–8am slot. By evening the aircraft flying these rotations have absorbed a full day of small delays and there is no slack left to recover in. The 5pm–8pm window is the busiest, with 259 flights scheduled in it.
Explore
Filter MDW to BDL by airline, time, month and day
Pick a breakdown and a carrier. The dashed mark on each row is the same slice for every US flight.
On MDW to BDL, the best departure window is 5am–8am at 91.3% on time and the worst is 8pm–5am at 48.9%, a wide gap of 42.4 points. All US flights leaving 5am–8am ran 89.3%.
- 5–8am91.3%
- 8–11am88.2%
- 11am–2pm80.0%
- 2–5pm83.9%
- 5–8pm62.6%
- 8pm–5am48.9%
best all US flightsScale 40% to 95%.
Across the year
When delays peak on this route
This route's year swings by 23 points from best month to worst, which is wide. An annual average tells you very little about the week you are actually flying, so read the strip rather than the headline if your dates are fixed.
September is the best month on the calendar at 89.0% on time. Shoulder season thins the schedule and takes the summer weather with it, and the operation gets its margin back. August was the busiest month here, with 87 flights.
Across the week, Wednesday is the strongest day at 84.7% on time and Sunday the weakest at 67.9%, a spread of 17 points.
Delay causes
Why this route gets delayed
Late-arriving aircraft accounts for 54% of the 12,000 delay minutes carriers reported here, and the remaining four split what is left.
- 54%Late-arriving aircraft
- 33%Carrier
- 8%National Airspace System
- 4%Extreme weather
- 1%Security
54% of delay minutes trace back to a late-arriving aircraft, meaning the plane was already behind before it got here. Across 12,000 reported delay minutes here, that single category outweighs weather by 13 to one. The split is drawn from 12,305 reported delay minutes.
The practical consequence: the 5am–8am departure is the one that starts clean. Its aircraft has no earlier leg to be late from, which is exactly why that window shows 91.3% on time here.
Cancellations sit at 1.44% against a national 1.89%, which is ordinary. Diversions add another 0.12%.
Connections and stage length
What a delay here actually costs
8.3% of arrivals land an hour or more late, close to the national 8.3%, so a 60 to 75 minute layover is reasonable here while anything under 45 minutes is a bet. Most delays on this route last about an hour, which a normal layover absorbs.
The 776 miles between these two airports put this in the middle of the US network, around two and a half to three hours of block time. That is enough cruise to absorb a ten-minute late pushback and not enough to absorb thirty.
The return leg runs 78.6% on time across 837 flights, within 3 points of this direction. The two legs are scored separately because they usually differ; on this city pair they happen not to.
One caution: this is a thin sample. 836 flights over twelve months is enough to clear this site's floor but not enough to pin the rate down tightly, and a single bad week moves it by more than a point. Treat the grade as a rough reading.
Work out the risk of missing a connection in BDL after this flight
What to do with this
Booking this route
Put together: treat all of this as provisional. 836 flights over twelve months is enough to clear this site's floor and not enough to be confident to better than a couple of points. The 76.1% headline is the most reliable number on the page; the hour and month splits below it are built on a few dozen flights each. 823 completed flights over 12 months sit behind that.
Common questions
MDW to BDL questions
How often is MDW to BDL delayed?
About one flight in four arrives at least 15 minutes late, which is the Department of Transportation's definition of a delayed arrival. That works out to 23.9% of the 836 flights in this analysis, against 22.7% nationally. Delayed flights are late by about an hour on average.
How reliable is MDW to BDL compared with the rest of the country?
76.1% of flights arrive on time here against a national 77.3%, a difference of about a point against it. That is worth a B on this site's grading scale.
What time of day has the fewest delays on MDW to BDL?
The 5am–8am departure window is the strongest at 91.3% on time. The 8pm–5am window is the weakest at 48.9%, 42 points behind. Later departures inherit delays from earlier flights the same aircraft has already flown, which is why the curve slopes the way it does.
How bad are March delays on MDW to BDL?
March is the weakest month at 66.2% on time, compared with 89.0% in September. Across the year that is 23 points between the best and worst months. Moving flexible dates out of that month is one of the few things that reliably helps.
Related
Where to go next
- BDL to MDW — the return legseparate record
- Chicago Midway International (MDW) delay statistics
- MDW to ATL, a related route78.7%
- ORD to BDL, a related route74.5%
- MDW to PHX, a related route74.7%
- Southwest Airlines on-time record76.1%
- Why the first flight of the morning is statistically safest
- The best time of day to fly, according to 7.05 million flight records
Direction matters. MDW to BDL and BDL to MDW are scored separately because they are separate operations, with different departure banks and different aircraft. Compare the return leg.
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Source: US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics, on-time performance data, September 2025 to August 2026. Last updated ; recomputed monthly. How this data is collected.