Route reliability record
EWR→RDU
Newark to Raleigh
- Flights
- 1,994
- Period
- September 2025 to August 2026
- Distance
- 416 mi
- Carriers
- 3
This route carries a cancellation problem, not just a delay problem: 3.4% of scheduled flights never operate, against 1.9% nationally. Of the ones that do fly, close to three flights in four arrive on time, worth a B− overall. The punctuality figure counts only flights that actually departed, so it flatters an operation that cancels this often. That rests on 1,994 EWR to RDU flights, with a median arrival 8 minutes early.
Best time to fly EWR to RDU: a 5am–8am departure, ideally on a Wednesday. Flights in that window arrived on time 90.1% of the time and Wednesday flights 80.9%, against 75.7% for the route overall.
The US average over the same twelve months is 77.3%, so there is little to separate this route from the country as a whole. The variation that matters here is internal: which carrier, and what time of day.
Key figures
On time
75.7%
Arrivals under 15 minutes late, of 1,923 completed flights
Avg delay
76 min
Across delayed arrivals only, not all flights
Cancelled
3.41%
National rate is 1.89%
Best carrier
United
74.2% on time across 1,541 flights
These figures cover 1,994 flights between September 2025 and August 2026. Beyond the headline rate, 10.6% of arrivals land a full hour or more behind schedule, against 8.3% nationally.
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Carrier by carrier
Which airline is most reliable on EWR to RDU
Only one carrier clears this site's 365-flight floor here, so there is no comparison to draw. The table below is the full picture.
| Airline | Flights | On time | Avg delay | Cancelled | Grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republic Airwaysthin sample | 273 | 94.3% | 50 min | 4.40% | A− |
| United Airlines | 1,541 | 74.2% | 78 min | 2.66% | C |
| Spirit Airlinesthin sample | 180 | 59.1% | 70 min | 8.33% | D− |
Flight by flight
Flights on EWR to RDU
The flight numbers below flew this route at least 250 times in the period, busiest first. Each has its own record, with its schedule and delay causes.
Timetable by Aviasales, a Travelpayouts partner. Booking through it may earn this site a commission at no cost to you; it changes no figure here.
Best ways to make this trip
The most reliable ways to fly Newark to Raleigh
Every airline on this route and on the routes between nearby airports, ranked by how often a scheduled flight actually operated and arrived on time. 3 of the top 4 use a different airport at one end.
| Option | Airline | Success | On time | Cancelled | Best departure | Most punctual flight |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. EWR → RDUNewark to Raleigh | United Airlines | 72.2% | 74.2% | 2.66% | 5am–8am, Tue | UA 1890 07:15 |
| 2. JFK → RDUNew York to Raleigh | Republic Airways | 70.3% | 75.0% | 6.32% | 8am–11am, Sat | YX 4658 12:59 |
| 3. LGA → RDUNew York to Raleigh | Republic Airways | 68.9% | 73.1% | 5.78% | 5am–8am, Sat | — |
| 4. JFK → RDUNew York to Raleigh | JetBlue Airways | 63.9% | 68.6% | 6.78% | 5am–8am, Wed | — |
Success is the share of scheduled flights that operated and arrived less than 15 minutes late, so a cancelled flight counts against it. “(route)” means the best time comes from every carrier on the route rather than this airline alone.
Departure window
The best time of day to leave
Departure time matters more here than the choice of carrier. The gap between the best and worst window is 28 points, against half a point between the best and worst carrier.
- 5am–8am362 flights90.1%
- 8am–11am368 flights82.4%
- 11am–2pm86 flights83.5%
- 2pm–5pm634 flights72.1%
- 5pm–8pm299 flights65.5%
- 8pm–5am245 flights62.4%
Scale runs 55% to 95%.
The 8pm–5am window is where this operation falls apart: 62.4% on time, against 90.1% for the 5am–8am slot. By evening the aircraft flying these rotations have absorbed a full day of small delays and there is no slack left to recover in. The 2pm–5pm window is the busiest, with 634 flights scheduled in it.
Explore
Filter EWR to RDU by airline, time, month and day
Pick a breakdown and a carrier. The dashed mark on each row is the same slice for every US flight.
On EWR to RDU, the best departure window is 5am–8am at 90.1% on time and the worst is 8pm–5am at 62.4%, a wide gap of 27.7 points. All US flights leaving 5am–8am ran 89.3%.
- 5–8am90.1%
- 8–11am82.4%
- 11am–2pm83.5%
- 2–5pm72.1%
- 5–8pm65.5%
- 8pm–5am62.4%
best all US flightsScale 55% to 95%.
Across the year
When delays peak on this route
This route's year swings by 25 points from best month to worst, which is wide. An annual average tells you very little about the week you are actually flying, so read the strip rather than the headline if your dates are fixed.
July is the worst month at 62.3% on time, 25 points below May, the best at 87.2%. Summer afternoon convection and peak-season schedules land on the same weeks every year, so this is a pattern you can book around rather than a run of bad luck. April was the busiest month here, with 197 flights.
Across the week, Wednesday is the strongest day at 80.9% on time and Monday the weakest at 68.8%, a spread of 12 points.
Delay causes
Why this route gets delayed
Late-arriving aircraft accounts for 48% of the 35,000 delay minutes carriers reported here, and the remaining four split what is left.
- 48%Late-arriving aircraft
- 26%Carrier
- 21%National Airspace System
- 4%Extreme weather
- 0%Security
48% of delay minutes trace back to a late-arriving aircraft, meaning the plane was already behind before it got here. Across 35,000 reported delay minutes here, that single category outweighs weather by 12 to one. The split is drawn from 35,446 reported delay minutes.
The practical consequence: the 5am–8am departure is the one that starts clean. Its aircraft has no earlier leg to be late from, which is exactly why that window shows 90.1% on time here.
Cancellations run at 3.41%, against 1.89% nationally. That is about one flight in 30 cancelled outright. A cancelled flight is invisible in every on-time figure on this page, so the punctuality numbers above describe only the flights that actually operated.
Connections and stage length
What a delay here actually costs
10.6% of arrivals land a full hour or more behind schedule, against 8.3% nationally. Ninety minutes is the honest minimum for a connection here, and two hours if the onward flight is on a separate ticket.
At 416 miles this is a short hop, and stage length matters more than it looks. A flight this short spends under two hours in the air, which leaves almost nothing to claw back a late pushback with. Delay here is decided on the ground, in the turn, which is why the 5am–8am window matters as much as it does.
The return leg runs 76.5% on time across 1,993 flights, within about a point of this direction. The two legs are scored separately because they usually differ; on this city pair they happen not to.
The sample behind these figures is 1,994 flights, enough that the headline rate is stable to within roughly a point. The hour-block and month splits divide that further, so read the thinner bars with more caution than the headline.
Work out the risk of missing a connection in RDU after this flight
What to do with this
Booking this route
Put together: the delay figures matter less here than the 3.41% cancellation rate. A late arrival costs you a little over an hour; a cancelled flight costs you the day. Book the 5am–8am departure so there is still a schedule behind you if it goes wrong, and treat a same-day connection as optimistic. 1,923 completed flights over 12 months sit behind that.
Common questions
EWR to RDU questions
How often is EWR to RDU delayed?
About one flight in four arrives at least 15 minutes late, which is the Department of Transportation's definition of a delayed arrival. That works out to 24.3% of the 1,994 flights in this analysis, against 22.7% nationally. Delayed flights are late by a little over an hour on average.
How reliable is EWR to RDU compared with the rest of the country?
75.7% of flights arrive on time here against a national 77.3%, a difference of 2 points against it. That is worth a B− on this site's grading scale.
What time of day has the fewest delays on EWR to RDU?
The 5am–8am departure window is the strongest at 90.1% on time. The 8pm–5am window is the weakest at 62.4%, 28 points behind. Later departures inherit delays from earlier flights the same aircraft has already flown, which is why the curve slopes the way it does.
How bad are July delays on EWR to RDU?
July is the weakest month at 62.3% on time, compared with 87.2% in May. Across the year that is 25 points between the best and worst months. Moving flexible dates out of that month is one of the few things that reliably helps.
Related
Where to go next
- RDU to EWR — the return legseparate record
- Newark Liberty International (EWR) delay statistics
- Raleigh-Durham International (RDU) delay statistics
- Republic Airways on EWR to RDU94.3%
- United Airlines on EWR to RDU74.2%
- Spirit Airlines on EWR to RDU59.1%
- EWR to MCO, a related route77.9%
- ATL to RDU, a related route80.0%
- EWR to ATL, a related route76.9%
- Republic Airways on-time record94.3%
- United Airlines on-time record74.2%
- Spirit Airlines on-time record59.1%
- The US routes with the most cancellations
- Why the first flight of the morning is statistically safest
Direction matters. EWR to RDU and RDU to EWR are scored separately because they are separate operations, with different departure banks and different aircraft. Compare the return leg.
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Source: US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics, on-time performance data, September 2025 to August 2026. Last updated ; recomputed monthly. How this data is collected.