Carrier route record
YXJFK→RDU
Republic Airways · New York to Raleigh
- Flights
- 1,438
- Period
- July 2025 to June 2026
- Share of route
- 61%
- Carriers
- 2
Historical statistics for July 2025 to June 2026, not live status. For today’s flights, check with Republic Airways.
Republic on JFK to RDU carries a cancellation problem, not just a delay problem: 5.5% of scheduled flights never operate, against 1.8% nationally. Of the ones that do fly, about four flights in five arrive on time, worth a B− overall. The punctuality figure counts only flights that actually departed, so it flatters an operation that cancels this often. That rests on 1,438 flights, with a median arrival 6 minutes early.
The US average over the same twelve months is 77.6%, so there is little to separate Republic on JFK to RDU from the country as a whole. The variation that matters here is internal: which carrier, and what time of day.
Key figures
On time
78.6%
Arrivals under 15 minutes late, of 1,357 completed flights
Avg delay
62 min
Across delayed arrivals only, not all flights
Cancelled
5.49%
National rate is 1.81%
Whole route
75.9%
Every carrier on JFK to RDU, 2,363 flights
These figures cover 1,438 flights between July 2025 and June 2026. Beyond the headline rate, 8.3% of arrivals land a full hour or more behind schedule. That is the number that wrecks a connection, and it is not visible in an on-time percentage alone.
Carrier by carrier
Republic against every carrier on JFK to RDU
Republic flew 1,438 of the 2,363 flights on JFK to RDU, most of the route. Its 78.6% on time is 3 points better than the route as a whole, which runs 75.9%. Ranked by on-time rate it is first of two carriers on the route, where the range runs from Republic at 78.6% to JetBlue at 71.8%.
Only one carrier clears this site's 365-flight floor here, so there is no comparison to draw. The table below is the full picture.
| Airline | Flights | On time | Avg delay | Cancelled | Grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republic Airways (this page) | 1,438 | 78.6% | 62 min | 5.49% | B− |
| JetBlue Airways | 925 | 71.8% | 75 min | 4.22% | C− |
Flight by flight
Republic flight numbers on JFK to RDU
Departure window
When Republic runs best on this route
Departure time matters more here than the choice of carrier. The gap between the best and worst window is 23 points, against half a point between the best and worst carrier. Each bar is the on-time rate for flights scheduled inside that window.
- 5am–8am—
- 8am–11am372 flights85.0%
- 11am–2pm346 flights88.7%
- 2pm–5pm178 flights66.1%
- 5pm–8pm212 flights69.0%
- 8pm–5am330 flights72.8%
Scale runs 60% to 95%. Rows with fewer than 30 flights show a dash.
The best window here is not the first bank but the 11am–2pm slot at 88.7% on time, ahead of 2pm–5pm at 66.1%. Where the curve peaks mid-day rather than at dawn, the constraint is usually congestion at one end rather than the aircraft's own rotation. The 8am–11am window is the busiest, with 372 flights scheduled in it.
Across the year
Republic on JFK to RDU through the year
December is the weak month at 68.4% on time, against 90.1% in August. Winter delays cluster: a single storm system can account for most of a month's shortfall, so an average December hides both very good weeks and genuinely unflyable days. November was the busiest month here, with 147 flights.
Across the week, Saturday is the strongest day at 83.8% on time and Sunday the weakest at 72.6%. 11 points is a smaller lever than departure hour, but it is free.
Delay causes
Why Republic runs late on this route
One category carries most of the weight here. Late-arriving aircraft accounts for 53% of the 18,000 delay minutes carriers reported, and the remaining four split what is left. The split is by minutes rather than by flights, so a few very long delays count for as much as many short ones.
- 53%Late-arriving aircraft
- 30%National Airspace System
- 16%Carrier
- 1%Extreme weather
53% of delay minutes trace back to a late-arriving aircraft, meaning the plane was already behind before it got here. That is a cascade, and cascades start small and grow through the day. Across 18,000 reported delay minutes here, that single category outweighs weather by 49 to one. It is the strongest argument for booking the first departure of the morning, when the aircraft has been sitting at the gate overnight with nothing to inherit. The split is drawn from 17,986 reported delay minutes.
Cancellations run at 5.49%, against 1.81% nationally. That is roughly one flight in twenty cancelled outright. A cancelled flight is invisible in every on-time figure on this page, so the punctuality numbers above describe only the flights that actually operated.
Connections and stage length
What a delay here costs
8.3% of arrivals land an hour or more late, close to the national 8.1%. That is the figure that decides a connection, and it says a 60 to 75 minute layover is reasonable here while anything under 45 minutes is a bet. Most delays on this route last about an hour, which a normal layover absorbs.
At 427 miles this is a short hop, and stage length matters more than it looks. A flight this short spends under two hours in the air, which leaves almost nothing to claw back a late pushback with. Delay here is decided on the ground, in the turn, which is why the 11am–2pm window matters as much as it does.
The return leg runs 77.0% on time across 1,437 flights, within 2 points of this direction. The two legs are scored separately because they usually differ; on this city pair they happen not to.
The sample behind these figures is 1,438 flights, enough that the headline rate is stable to within roughly a point. The hour-block and month splits divide that further, so read the thinner bars with more caution than the headline.
What to do with this
Booking Republic on JFK to RDU
Put together: the delay figures matter less here than the 5.49% cancellation rate. A late arrival costs you about an hour; a cancelled flight costs you the day. Book the 11am–2pm departure so there is still a schedule behind you if it goes wrong, and treat a same-day connection as optimistic. 1,357 completed flights over 12 months sit behind that.
Related
Where to go next
- JFK to RDU, every carrier
- Republic on RDU to JFK, the return leg
- JetBlue Airways on JFK to RDU71.8%
- Republic Airways network-wide record
- John F. Kennedy International (JFK) delay statistics
- Raleigh-Durham International (RDU) delay statistics
- The US routes with the most cancellations
- Why the first flight of the morning is statistically safest
Source: US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics, on-time performance data, July 2025 to June 2026. Last updated 15 September 2026; recomputed monthly. How this data is collected.