Carrier route record

YXRDU→JFK

Republic Airways · Raleigh to New York

Flights: 1,375
Period: September 2025 to August 2026
Share of route: 59%
Carriers: 2

Historical statistics for September 2025 to August 2026, not live status. For today’s flights, check with Republic Airways.

Republic on RDU to JFK carries a cancellation problem, not just a delay problem: 4.6% of scheduled flights never operate, against 1.9% nationally. Of the ones that do fly, close to three flights in four arrive on time, worth a B− overall. The punctuality figure counts only flights that actually departed, so it flatters an operation that cancels this often. That rests on 1,375 flights, with a median arrival 6 minutes early.

The US average over the same twelve months is 77.3%, so there is little to separate Republic on RDU to JFK from the country as a whole. The variation that matters here is internal: which carrier, and what time of day.

On time

77.2%

Arrivals under 15 minutes late, of 1,308 completed flights

Avg delay

74 min

Across delayed arrivals only, not all flights

Cancelled

4.58%

National rate is 1.89%

Whole route

74.6%

Every carrier on RDU to JFK, 2,334 flights

These figures cover 1,375 flights between September 2025 and August 2026. Beyond the headline rate, 9.2% of arrivals land a full hour or more behind schedule, against 8.3% nationally.

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Carrier by carrier

Republic against every carrier on RDU to JFK

Republic flew 1,375 of the 2,334 flights on RDU to JFK, most of the route. Its 77.2% on time is 3 points better than the route as a whole, which runs 74.6%. Ranked by on-time rate it is first of two carriers on the route, where the range runs from Republic at 77.2% to JetBlue at 70.8%.

Only one carrier clears this site's 365-flight floor here, so there is no comparison to draw. The table below is the full picture.

On-time performance by carrier on RDU to JFK
Airline	Flights	On time	Avg delay	Cancelled	Grade
Republic Airways (this page)	1,375	77.2%	74 min	4.58%	B−
JetBlue Airways	959	70.8%	81 min	6.99%	C−

Flight by flight

Republic flight numbers on RDU to JFK

YX 476511:5974.6% · 290 flights

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Departure window

When Republic runs best on this route

Departure time matters more here than the choice of carrier. The gap between the best and worst window is 41 points, against half a point between the best and worst carrier.

5am–8am360 flights91.7%
8am–11am168 flights91.9%
11am–2pm326 flights73.8%
2pm–5pm203 flights82.6%
5pm–8pm217 flights52.3%
8pm–5am101 flights51.1%

Scale runs 45% to 95%.

The 8pm–5am window is where this operation falls apart: 51.1% on time, against 91.9% for the 8am–11am slot. By evening the aircraft flying these rotations have absorbed a full day of small delays and there is no slack left to recover in. The 5am–8am window is the busiest, with 360 flights scheduled in it.

Across the year

Republic on RDU to JFK through the year

Darker means more delays. Figures are on-time percentages.May best, July worst

July is the worst month at 66.7% on time, 18 points below May, the best at 84.8%. Summer afternoon convection and peak-season schedules land on the same weeks every year, so this is a pattern you can book around rather than a run of bad luck. November was the busiest month here, with 146 flights.

Across the week, Friday is the strongest day at 81.9% on time and Sunday the weakest at 69.5%, a spread of 12 points.

Arrival by arrival

How late Republic on RDU to JFK runs when it is late

Republic on RDU to JFK often beats the schedule: 390 of 1,308 completed flights, 30%, arrived 15 minutes or more early. The 298 late arrivals split 96 under half an hour, 82 between 30 and 60 minutes, and 120 an hour or more.

15+ min early390 flights29.8%
Within 15 min620 flights47.4%
15–29 min late96 flights7.3%
30–59 min late82 flights6.3%
1–2 hours late71 flights5.4%
2+ hours late49 flights3.7%

Scale runs 0% to 100%.

Share of 1,308 completed flights by arrival against schedule.

45 of 248 late departures made up the time and arrived on time, 18% of them. In the other direction, 95 flights left on time yet arrived 15 minutes late or more, so that delay built up after pushback: in the air, in a holding pattern or on the ground at JFK.

The worst days

Worst days for Republic on RDU to JFK

The latest arrival of the period was on 6 September 2025, 12 hours 39 minutes behind schedule; most of its delay minutes were filed as extreme weather. On three of the five worst days the largest share was filed as a late-arriving aircraft.

The latest arrivals of Republic on RDU to JFK in the period
Date	Arrived late by	Largest filed cause
6 September 2025	12 hours 39 minutes	Extreme weather
30 October 2025	9 hours 27 minutes	Late-arriving aircraft
28 January 2026	7 hours 43 minutes	Late-arriving aircraft
4 October 2025	6 hours 32 minutes	Carrier
8 March 2026	6 hours 11 minutes	Late-arriving aircraft

Delay causes

Why Republic runs late on this route

Carriers report a reason for every delay minute they cause, in five DOT categories. The split below is by minutes, not by number of flights, so a handful of very long weather delays weighs as much as many short ones. It covers 22,000 reported delay minutes.

Late-arriving aircraft
39%
National Airspace System
32%
Carrier
19%
Extreme weather
10%

39% of delay minutes trace back to a late-arriving aircraft, meaning the plane was already behind before it got here. Across 22,000 reported delay minutes here, that single category outweighs weather by 4 to one. The split is drawn from 21,992 reported delay minutes.

32% of delay minutes are charged to the National Airspace System: air traffic volume, runway configuration, ground stops. No carrier can price its way out of that, which is why airport choice moves the number here more than carrier choice does. That is 7,068 minutes out of 22,000, against a national NAS share of 21%.

Cancellations run at 4.58%, against 1.89% nationally. That is roughly one flight in twenty cancelled outright. A cancelled flight is invisible in every on-time figure on this page, so the punctuality numbers above describe only the flights that actually operated.

Connections and stage length

What a delay here costs

9.2% of arrivals land a full hour or more behind schedule, against 8.3% nationally. Ninety minutes is the honest minimum for a connection here, and two hours if the onward flight is on a separate ticket.

At 427 miles this is a short hop, and stage length matters more than it looks. A flight this short spends under two hours in the air, which leaves almost nothing to claw back a late pushback with. Delay here is decided on the ground, in the turn, which is why the 8am–11am window matters as much as it does.

The return leg runs 75.0% on time across 1,376 flights, within 2 points of this direction. The two legs are scored separately because they usually differ; on this city pair they happen not to.

The sample behind these figures is 1,375 flights, enough that the headline rate is stable to within roughly a point. The hour-block and month splits divide that further, so read the thinner bars with more caution than the headline.

What to do with this

Booking Republic on RDU to JFK

Put together: the delay figures matter less here than the 4.58% cancellation rate. A late arrival costs you a little over an hour; a cancelled flight costs you the day. Book the 8am–11am departure so there is still a schedule behind you if it goes wrong, and treat a same-day connection as optimistic. 1,308 completed flights over 12 months sit behind that.

Where to go next

Source: US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics, on-time performance data, September 2025 to August 2026. Last updated 22 October 2026; recomputed monthly. How this data is collected.

Key figures