Route reliability record
MSN→DFW
Madison to Dallas-Fort Worth
- Flights
- 1,091
- Period
- September 2025 to August 2026
- Distance
- 821 mi
- Carriers
- 2
This route sits in the middle of the pack with a C. Close to three flights in four arrive on time by the DOT's definition, 3 points worse than the national rate of 77.3%. The late ones land close to two hours behind schedule. That rests on 1,091 MSN to DFW flights, with a median arrival 8 minutes early.
Best time to fly MSN to DFW: a 2pm–5pm departure, ideally on a Monday. Flights in that window arrived on time 82.1% of the time and Monday flights 79.7%, against 74.6% for the route overall.
The US average over the same twelve months is 77.3%, so there is little to separate this route from the country as a whole. The variation that matters here is internal: which carrier, and what time of day.
Key figures
On time
74.6%
Arrivals under 15 minutes late, of 1,067 completed flights
Avg delay
117 min
Across delayed arrivals only, not all flights
Cancelled
1.92%
National rate is 1.89%
Best carrier
American
74.6% on time across 1,090 flights
These figures cover 1,091 flights between September 2025 and August 2026. Beyond the headline rate, 12.0% of arrivals land a full hour or more behind schedule, against 8.3% nationally.
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Carrier by carrier
Which airline is most reliable on MSN to DFW
Only one carrier clears this site's 365-flight floor here, so there is no comparison to draw. The table below is the full picture.
| Airline | Flights | On time | Avg delay | Cancelled | Grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Envoy Airthin sample | 1 | 100.0% | — | 0.00% | A+ |
| American Airlines | 1,090 | 74.6% | 117 min | 1.93% | C |
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Departure window
The best time of day to leave
Departure time matters more here than the choice of carrier. The gap between the best and worst window is 27 points, against half a point between the best and worst carrier.
- 5am–8am365 flights81.5%
- 8am–11am—
- 11am–2pm364 flights72.5%
- 2pm–5pm199 flights82.1%
- 5pm–8pm163 flights54.7%
- 8pm–5am—
Scale runs 45% to 90%. Rows with fewer than 30 flights show a dash.
The 5pm–8pm window is where this operation falls apart: 54.7% on time, against 82.1% for the 2pm–5pm slot. By evening the aircraft flying these rotations have absorbed a full day of small delays and there is no slack left to recover in. The 5am–8am window is the busiest, with 365 flights scheduled in it.
Explore
Filter MSN to DFW by airline, time, month and day
Pick a breakdown and a carrier. The dashed mark on each row is the same slice for every US flight.
On MSN to DFW, the best departure window is 2pm–5pm at 82.1% on time and the worst is 5pm–8pm at 54.7%, a wide gap of 27.4 points. All US flights leaving 2pm–5pm ran 71.9%.
- 5–8am81.5%
- 8–11am—
- 11am–2pm72.5%
- 2–5pm82.1%
- 5–8pm54.7%
- 8pm–5am—
best all US flightsScale 45% to 95%. Cells under 30 flights show a dash.
Across the year
When delays peak on this route
This route's year swings by 32 points from best month to worst, which is wide. An annual average tells you very little about the week you are actually flying, so read the strip rather than the headline if your dates are fixed.
Delays peak in September, when the on-time rate falls to 55.2%. February is the strongest month at 86.9%. Moving a flexible trip across that boundary buys 32 points. August was the busiest month here, with 94 flights.
Across the week, Monday is the strongest day at 79.7% on time and Sunday the weakest at 66.0%, a spread of 14 points.
Delay causes
Why this route gets delayed
Late-arriving aircraft accounts for 44% of the 32,000 delay minutes carriers reported here, and the remaining four split what is left.
- 44%Late-arriving aircraft
- 41%Carrier
- 9%National Airspace System
- 6%Extreme weather
- 0%Security
44% of delay minutes trace back to a late-arriving aircraft, meaning the plane was already behind before it got here. Across 32,000 reported delay minutes here, that single category outweighs weather by 8 to one. The split is drawn from 31,592 reported delay minutes.
The largest share of delay minutes, 41%, falls under carrier control: crew scheduling, maintenance, fuelling, baggage. It accounts for 13,000 of the 32,000 delay minutes reported here.
Cancellations sit at 1.92% against a national 1.89%, which is ordinary. Diversions add another 0.27%.
Connections and stage length
What a delay here actually costs
12.0% of arrivals land a full hour or more behind schedule, against 8.3% nationally. Ninety minutes is the honest minimum for a connection here, and two hours if the onward flight is on a separate ticket.
The 821 miles between these two airports put this in the middle of the US network, around two and a half to three hours of block time. That is enough cruise to absorb a ten-minute late pushback and not enough to absorb thirty.
The return leg is a different operation and performs like one: it runs 63.0% on time across 1,091 flights, 12 points below this direction. Departure banks, aircraft rotations and the congestion at each end all differ, so scoring the two directions together would average away a real 12 points of difference.
One caution: this is a thin sample. 1,091 flights over twelve months is enough to clear this site's floor but not enough to pin the rate down tightly, and a single bad week moves it by more than a point. Treat the grade as a rough reading.
Work out the risk of missing a connection in DFW after this flight
What to do with this
Booking this route
Put together: treat all of this as provisional. 1,091 flights over twelve months is enough to clear this site's floor and not enough to be confident to better than a couple of points. The 74.6% headline is the most reliable number on the page; the hour and month splits below it are built on a few dozen flights each. 1,067 completed flights over 12 months sit behind that.
Common questions
MSN to DFW questions
How often is MSN to DFW delayed?
About one flight in four arrives at least 15 minutes late, which is the Department of Transportation's definition of a delayed arrival. That works out to 25.4% of the 1,091 flights in this analysis, against 22.7% nationally. Delayed flights are late by close to two hours on average.
How reliable is MSN to DFW compared with the rest of the country?
74.6% of flights arrive on time here against a national 77.3%, a difference of 3 points against it. That is worth a C on this site's grading scale.
What time of day has the fewest delays on MSN to DFW?
The 2pm–5pm departure window is the strongest at 82.1% on time. The 5pm–8pm window is the weakest at 54.7%, 27 points behind. Later departures inherit delays from earlier flights the same aircraft has already flown, which is why the curve slopes the way it does.
How bad are September delays on MSN to DFW?
September is the weakest month at 55.2% on time, compared with 86.9% in February. Across the year that is 32 points between the best and worst months. Moving flexible dates out of that month is one of the few things that reliably helps.
Related
Where to go next
- DFW to MSN — the return legseparate record
- Dallas/Fort Worth International (DFW) delay statistics
- MSN to ORD, a related route72.8%
- ORD to DFW, a related route70.4%
- MSN to DCA, a related route72.9%
- Envoy Air on-time record100.0%
- American Airlines on-time record74.6%
- Why the first flight of the morning is statistically safest
- The best time of day to fly, according to 7.05 million flight records
Direction matters. MSN to DFW and DFW to MSN are scored separately because they are separate operations, with different departure banks and different aircraft. Compare the return leg.
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Source: US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics, on-time performance data, September 2025 to August 2026. Last updated ; recomputed monthly. How this data is collected.