Carrier route record
YXMSN→DCA
Republic Airways · Madison to Washington
- Flights
- 385
- Period
- July 2025 to June 2026
- Share of route
- 32%
- Carriers
- 4
Historical statistics for July 2025 to June 2026, not live status. For today’s flights, check with Republic Airways.
Republic on MSN to DCA sits in the middle of the pack with a C−. About seven flights in ten arrive on time by the DOT's definition, 5 points worse than the national rate of 77.6%. The late ones land an hour and a half behind schedule. That rests on 385 flights, with a median arrival 8 minutes early.
The national on-time rate over the same period is 77.6%, so Republic on MSN to DCA runs 5 points behind the country as a whole. Across a thousand flights that is about 54 extra late arrivals.
Key figures
On time
72.2%
Arrivals under 15 minutes late, of 363 completed flights
Avg delay
86 min
Across delayed arrivals only, not all flights
Cancelled
4.68%
National rate is 1.81%
Whole route
75.0%
Every carrier on MSN to DCA, 1,191 flights
These figures cover 385 flights between July 2025 and June 2026. Beyond the headline rate, 13.5% of arrivals land a full hour or more behind schedule. That is the number that wrecks a connection, and it is not visible in an on-time percentage alone.
Carrier by carrier
Republic against every carrier on MSN to DCA
Republic flew 385 of the 1,191 flights on MSN to DCA, about 32% of it. Its 72.2% on time is 3 points worse than the route as a whole, which runs 75.0%. Ranked by on-time rate it is number three of four carriers on the route, where the range runs from Envoy at 84.2% to American at 50.0%. Two of those carriers flew fewer than 365 flights here, so treat their positions as rough.
Only one carrier clears this site's 365-flight floor here, so there is no comparison to draw. The table below is the full picture.
| Airline | Flights | On time | Avg delay | Cancelled | Grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Envoy Airthin sample | 19 | 84.2% | 36 min | 0.00% | B+ |
| PSA Airlines | 782 | 76.4% | 100 min | 5.12% | B− |
| Republic Airways (this page) | 385 | 72.2% | 86 min | 4.68% | C− |
| American Airlinesthin sample | 5 | 50.0% | 38 min | 0.00% | F+ |
Flight by flight
Republic flight numbers on MSN to DCA
Departure window
When Republic runs best on this route
Departure time is the single lever a traveller controls, and it moves the odds more than most people expect. Each bar below is the on-time rate for flights scheduled to leave inside that window, across 385 flights.
There are not enough flights in each departure window to split Republic's MSN to DCA record by time of day without the percentages moving on noise. The headline rate of 72.2% is the reliable figure here.
Across the year
Republic on MSN to DCA through the year
- Jul–Sep 2025135 flights76.2%
- Oct–Dec 202573 flights65.3%
- Jan–Mar 202699 flights66.3%
- Apr–Jun 202678 flights79.7%
Scale runs 55% to 85%. Rows with fewer than 30 flights show a dash.
Monthly volumes are too low here to break the year into twelve reliable readings. What the twelve-month total says is 72.2% on time across 385 flights.
Republic on MSN to DCA did not run the same all year. Its best quarter was Apr–Jun 2026 at 79.7% on time and its weakest Oct–Dec 2025 at 65.3%, a swing of 14 points on roughly 96 flights a quarter. The twelve-month rate averages over that, so if you are flying in a weak quarter the quarter's own figure is the better guide.
Across the week, Sunday is the strongest day at 78.2% on time and Friday the weakest at 66.7%. 12 points is a smaller lever than departure hour, but it is free.
Delay causes
Why Republic runs late on this route
Carriers report a reason for every delay minute they cause, in five DOT categories. The split below is by minutes, not by number of flights, so a handful of very long weather delays weighs as much as many short ones. It covers 8,641 reported delay minutes.
- 34%Carrier
- 33%Late-arriving aircraft
- 25%National Airspace System
- 8%Extreme weather
No single cause dominates. carrier at 34%, late-arriving aircraft at 33% and national airspace system at 25% split the 8,641 reported delay minutes between them. An even spread like this usually means the operation is running close to its designed capacity with no one obvious weak point, and it is the hardest pattern for a traveller to route around. The split is drawn from 8,641 reported delay minutes.
Cancellations run at 4.68%, against 1.81% nationally. That is about one flight in twenty cancelled outright. A cancelled flight is invisible in every on-time figure on this page, so the punctuality numbers above describe only the flights that actually operated.
Connections and stage length
What a delay here costs
For anyone connecting, the number to weigh is not the on-time rate but the tail behind it. 13.5% of arrivals land a full hour or more behind schedule, against 8.1% nationally. A 45-minute layover does not survive that, and no amount of walking quickly changes it. Ninety minutes is the honest minimum here, and two hours if the onward flight is on a separate ticket.
The 707 miles between these two airports put this in the middle of the US network, around two and a half to three hours of block time. That is enough cruise to absorb a ten-minute late pushback and not enough to absorb thirty. It is also long enough that the aircraft usually flies three or four legs a day rather than six, which slows how fast delay compounds.
The return leg is a different operation and performs like one: it runs 78.2% on time across 384 flights, 6 points above this direction. Departure banks, aircraft rotations and the congestion at each end all differ, so scoring the two directions together would average away a real 6 points of difference.
One caution: this is a thin sample. 385 flights over twelve months is enough to clear this site's floor but not enough to pin the rate down tightly, and a single bad week moves it by more than a point. Treat the grade as a rough reading.
What to do with this
Booking Republic on MSN to DCA
Put together: the delay figures matter less here than the 4.68% cancellation rate. A late arrival costs you an hour and a half; a cancelled flight costs you the day. Book the 5pm–8pm departure so there is still a schedule behind you if it goes wrong, and treat a same-day connection as optimistic. 363 completed flights over 12 months sit behind that.
Related
Where to go next
Source: US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics, on-time performance data, July 2025 to June 2026. Last updated 15 September 2026; recomputed monthly. How this data is collected.