Flight number record
YX 5645
Republic Airways · Washington to Madison
- Route
- DCA → MSN
- Departs
- 15:40
- Flights
- 303
- Period
- July 2025 to June 2026
Historical statistics for July 2025 to June 2026, not live status. For today’s YX 5645, check with Republic Airways. Republic Airways flies under contract for larger airlines, so a ticket for this flight may show a different airline code and number.
YX 5645 lands a B, 3 points better than the national rate of 77.6%. About one flight in five arrives 15 minutes late or worse, and those flights are late by a little over an hour on average. That is a workable record, not a spotless one. That rests on 303 flights, with a median arrival 7 minutes early.
Key figures
On time
80.3%
Arrivals under 15 minutes late, of 295 completed flights
Avg delay
76 min
Across delayed arrivals only, not all flights
Cancelled
2.64%
National rate is 1.81%
1 hour+ late
9.5%
National rate is 8.1%
These figures cover 303 flights between July 2025 and June 2026. Beyond the headline rate, 9.5% of arrivals land a full hour or more behind schedule. That is the number that wrecks a connection, and it is not visible in an on-time percentage alone.
Schedule
When YX 5645 flies
YX 5645 flies DCA to MSN without a single fixed slot. Its most common scheduled departure was 15:40, used on 137 of 303 flights, with 15:15 (52 flights) and 15:20 (47 flights) next. Carriers retime flights through the season, so the rates here blend slightly different positions in the aircraft's day.
- Departs 15:40137 flights45.2%
- Departs 15:1552 flights17.2%
- Departs 15:2047 flights15.5%
Scale runs 0% to 100%. Rows with fewer than 30 flights show a dash.
Share of scheduled departures at each local time. Times used on fewer than one flight in ten are not listed.
A 15:40 departure sits in the 2pm–5pm window. Across every US flight scheduled in that window the on-time rate is 72.4%, and YX 5645 runs 8 points better at 80.3%. Midday slots inherit some of the morning's delays without yet carrying the full weight of the evening's.
Against the route
YX 5645 next to DCA to MSN
Every carrier on DCA to MSN combined arrived on time 72.0% of the time across 1,191 flights, so YX 5645 is 8 points ahead of it. Across its whole network Republic Airways managed 78.5%, which this flight beats by 2 points.
| Compared with | Flights | On time | Avg delay | Cancelled | Grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| YX 5645thin sample | 303 | 80.3% | 76 min | 2.64% | B |
| All Republic Airways on DCA–MSN | 384 | 78.2% | 72 min | 4.43% | B− |
| All carriers on DCA–MSN | 1,191 | 72.0% | 82 min | 5.12% | C− |
| Republic Airways, whole network | 361,482 | 78.5% | 72 min | 4.08% | B− |
Across the year
YX 5645 quarter by quarter
YX 5645 did not run the same all year. Its best quarter was Jul–Sep 2025 at 84.9% on time and its weakest Jan–Mar 2026 at 74.0%, a swing of 11 points on roughly 76 flights a quarter. The twelve-month rate averages over that, so if you are flying in a weak quarter the quarter's own figure is the better guide.
- Jul–Sep 202578 flights84.9%
- Oct–Dec 202572 flights79.2%
- Jan–Mar 202675 flights74.0%
- Apr–Jun 202678 flights83.1%
Scale runs 65% to 90%. Rows with fewer than 30 flights show a dash.
By weekday, YX 5645 did best on Sunday at 87.8% on time and worst on Wednesday at 73.5%. Each day rests on about 43 flights, so a gap of 14 points is worth noticing but could still narrow in another year.
Delay causes
Why YX 5645 runs late
Carriers report a reason for every delay minute they cause, in five DOT categories. The split below is by minutes, not by number of flights, so a handful of very long weather delays weighs as much as many short ones. It covers 4,387 reported delay minutes.
- 41%Late-arriving aircraft
- 32%Carrier
- 22%National Airspace System
- 5%Extreme weather
41% of delay minutes trace back to a late-arriving aircraft, meaning the plane was already behind before it got here. That is a cascade, and cascades start small and grow through the day. Across 4,387 reported delay minutes here, that single category outweighs weather by 8 to one. It is the strongest argument for booking the first departure of the morning, when the aircraft has been sitting at the gate overnight with nothing to inherit. The split is drawn from 4,387 delay minutes reported on YX 5645.
Cancellations run at 2.64%, against 1.81% nationally. That is about one flight in 40 cancelled outright. A cancelled flight is invisible in every on-time figure on this page, so the punctuality numbers above describe only the flights that actually operated.
Connections and routes
What a delay on this flight costs
For anyone connecting, the number to weigh is not the on-time rate but the tail behind it. 9.5% of arrivals land a full hour or more behind schedule, against 8.1% nationally. A 45-minute layover does not survive that, and no amount of walking quickly changes it. Ninety minutes is the honest minimum here, and two hours if the onward flight is on a separate ticket.
The 707 miles between these two airports put this in the middle of the US network, around two and a half to three hours of block time. That is enough cruise to absorb a ten-minute late pushback and not enough to absorb thirty. It is also long enough that the aircraft usually flies three or four legs a day rather than six, which slows how fast delay compounds.
YX 5645 is not only a DCA to MSN flight. It also flew MSN to DCA (303 flights, 73.1% on time) often enough to be scored on its own. Airlines attach one number to several legs of an aircraft's day, and each leg keeps its own record here, so check which city pair is on your booking before reading a rate.
One caution: this is a thin sample. 303 flights over twelve months is enough to clear this site's floor but not enough to pin the rate down tightly, and a single bad week moves it by more than a point. Treat the grade as a rough reading.
| Also flown as | Flights | On time | Avg delay | Cancelled | Grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MSN to DCAthin sample | 303 | 73.1% | 90 min | 3.30% | C− |
What to do with this
Booking YX 5645
For a booking, the cancellation rate is the figure to plan around on YX 5645: 2.64% of its 303 scheduled flights did not operate. A late arrival costs a little over an hour, but a cancellation costs the day, so leave a later option open.
Related
Where to go next
- DCA to MSN, every carrier and departure
- MSN to DCA, the return direction
- Ronald Reagan Washington National (DCA) delay statistics
- Republic Airways on-time record
- Every Republic Airways flight number with a record
- The most and least reliable flight numbers in the US
- Why the first flight of the morning is statistically safest
A flight number here means Republic Airways’s own number as it reports to the DOT. How the figures are computed is on the methodology page.
Source: US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics, on-time performance data, July 2025 to June 2026. Last updated 15 September 2026; recomputed monthly. How this data is collected.