Route reliability record
DCA→MKE
Washington to Milwaukee
- Flights
- 1,346
- Period
- September 2025 to August 2026
- Distance
- 634 mi
- Carriers
- 3
This route carries a cancellation problem, not just a delay problem: 5.3% of scheduled flights never operate, against 1.9% nationally. Of the ones that do fly, close to three flights in four arrive on time, worth a B− overall. The punctuality figure counts only flights that actually departed, so it flatters an operation that cancels this often. That rests on 1,346 DCA to MKE flights, of which Southwest Airlines flew 681 at 82.5% on time.
Best time to fly DCA to MKE: a 5am–8am departure, ideally on a Wednesday. Flights in that window arrived on time 96.5% of the time and Wednesday flights 79.2%, against 76.3% for the route overall.
The US average over the same twelve months is 77.3%, so there is little to separate this route from the country as a whole. The variation that matters here is internal: which carrier, and what time of day.
Key figures
On time
76.3%
Arrivals under 15 minutes late, of 1,273 completed flights
Avg delay
70 min
Across delayed arrivals only, not all flights
Cancelled
5.27%
National rate is 1.89%
Best carrier
Southwest
82.5% on time across 681 flights
These figures cover 1,346 flights between September 2025 and August 2026. Beyond the headline rate, 9.3% of arrivals land a full hour or more behind schedule, against 8.3% nationally.
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Carrier by carrier
Which airline is most reliable on DCA to MKE
The choice of carrier is not cosmetic here. Southwest Airlines arrives on time 82.5% of the time; PSA Airlines manages 69.3%. Sample sizes sit next to every figure, because a two-point gap across 658 flights means less than a ten-point one.
| Airline | Flights | On time | Avg delay | Cancelled | Grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republic Airwaysthin sample | 7 | 83.3% | 81 min | 14.29% | B− |
| Southwest Airlines | 681 | 82.5% | 59 min | 2.06% | B |
| PSA Airlines | 658 | 69.3% | 76 min | 8.51% | C− |
PSA Airlines cancels 8.5% of what it schedules here, the highest in the table. A cancelled flight never appears in an on-time rate, so read that column alongside the punctuality one rather than after it.
Flight by flight
Flights on DCA to MKE
The flight numbers below flew this route at least 250 times in the period, busiest first. Each has its own record, with its schedule and delay causes.
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Best ways to make this trip
The most reliable ways to fly Washington to Milwaukee
Every airline on this route and on the routes between nearby airports, ranked by how often a scheduled flight actually operated and arrived on time. 1 of the top 3 use a different airport at one end.
| Option | Airline | Success | On time | Cancelled | Best departure | Most punctual flight |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. DCA → MKEWashington to Milwaukee | Southwest Airlines | 80.8% | 82.5% | 2.06% | 5am–8am, Tue | — |
| 2. BWI → MKEBaltimore to Milwaukee | Southwest Airlines | 72.5% | 74.1% | 2.17% | 8am–11am, Tue | — |
| 3. DCA → MKEWashington to Milwaukee | PSA Airlines | 63.4% | 69.3% | 8.51% | 8am–11am, Thu | OH 5656 22:10 |
Success is the share of scheduled flights that operated and arrived less than 15 minutes late, so a cancelled flight counts against it. “(route)” means the best time comes from every carrier on the route rather than this airline alone.
Departure window
The best time of day to leave
Departure time matters more here than the choice of carrier. The gap between the best and worst window is 30 points, against 13 points between the best and worst carrier.
- 5am–8am206 flights96.5%
- 8am–11am214 flights86.1%
- 11am–2pm244 flights72.6%
- 2pm–5pm330 flights69.9%
- 5pm–8pm12 flights—
- 8pm–5am340 flights66.1%
Scale runs 60% to 100%. Rows with fewer than 30 flights show a dash.
Book the early departure. Flights leaving between 5am–8am arrive on time 96.5% of the time, against 66.1% for the overnight window. That is 30 points of difference for no extra money, and it comes from the same aircraft having had no earlier flight to fall behind on. The 8pm–5am window is the busiest, with 340 flights scheduled in it.
Explore
Filter DCA to MKE by airline, time, month and day
Pick a breakdown and a carrier. The dashed mark on each row is the same slice for every US flight.
On DCA to MKE, the best departure window is 5am–8am at 96.5% on time and the worst is 8pm–5am at 66.1%, a wide gap of 30.4 points. All US flights leaving 5am–8am ran 89.3%.
- 5–8am96.5%
- 8–11am86.1%
- 11am–2pm72.6%
- 2–5pm69.9%
- 5–8pm—
- 8pm–5am66.1%
best all US flightsScale 60% to 100%. Cells under 30 flights show a dash.
Across the year
When delays peak on this route
This route's year swings by 26 points from best month to worst, which is wide. An annual average tells you very little about the week you are actually flying, so read the strip rather than the headline if your dates are fixed.
July is the worst month at 60.6% on time, 26 points below January, the best at 86.4%. Summer afternoon convection and peak-season schedules land on the same weeks every year, so this is a pattern you can book around rather than a run of bad luck. July was the busiest month here, with 118 flights.
Across the week, Wednesday is the strongest day at 79.2% on time and Friday the weakest at 72.5%, a spread of 7 points.
Delay causes
Why this route gets delayed
Late-arriving aircraft accounts for 48% of the 21,000 delay minutes carriers reported here, and the remaining four split what is left.
- 48%Late-arriving aircraft
- 34%Carrier
- 15%National Airspace System
- 3%Extreme weather
48% of delay minutes trace back to a late-arriving aircraft, meaning the plane was already behind before it got here. Across 21,000 reported delay minutes here, that single category outweighs weather by 18 to one. The split is drawn from 21,080 reported delay minutes.
The largest share of delay minutes, 34%, falls under carrier control: crew scheduling, maintenance, fuelling, baggage. It accounts for 7,254 of the 21,000 delay minutes reported here.
Cancellations run at 5.27%, against 1.89% nationally. That is about one flight in twenty cancelled outright. A cancelled flight is invisible in every on-time figure on this page, so the punctuality numbers above describe only the flights that actually operated.
Connections and stage length
What a delay here actually costs
9.3% of arrivals land a full hour or more behind schedule, against 8.3% nationally. Ninety minutes is the honest minimum for a connection here, and two hours if the onward flight is on a separate ticket.
The 634 miles between these two airports put this in the middle of the US network, around two and a half to three hours of block time. That is enough cruise to absorb a ten-minute late pushback and not enough to absorb thirty.
The return leg is a different operation and performs like one: it runs 72.7% on time across 1,345 flights, 4 points below this direction. Departure banks, aircraft rotations and the congestion at each end all differ, so scoring the two directions together would average away a real 4 points of difference.
The sample behind these figures is 1,346 flights, enough that the headline rate is stable to within roughly a point. The hour-block and month splits divide that further, so read the thinner bars with more caution than the headline.
Work out the risk of missing a connection in MKE after this flight
What to do with this
Booking this route
Put together: the delay figures matter less here than the 5.27% cancellation rate. A late arrival costs you a little over an hour; a cancelled flight costs you the day. Book the 5am–8am departure so there is still a schedule behind you if it goes wrong, and treat a same-day connection as optimistic. 1,273 completed flights over 12 months sit behind that.
Common questions
DCA to MKE questions
How often is DCA to MKE delayed?
About one flight in four arrives at least 15 minutes late, which is the Department of Transportation's definition of a delayed arrival. That works out to 23.7% of the 1,346 flights in this analysis, against 22.7% nationally. Delayed flights are late by a little over an hour on average.
Which airline is most reliable on DCA to MKE?
Southwest Airlines leads at 82.5% on time across 681 flights. PSA Airlines is at the other end on 69.3%, a gap of 13 points. Sample size matters as much as the percentage: a rate built from a few hundred flights moves around far more than one built from ten thousand.
What time of day has the fewest delays on DCA to MKE?
The 5am–8am departure window is the strongest at 96.5% on time. The 8pm–5am window is the weakest at 66.1%, 30 points behind. Later departures inherit delays from earlier flights the same aircraft has already flown, which is why the curve slopes the way it does.
How bad are July delays on DCA to MKE?
July is the weakest month at 60.6% on time, compared with 86.4% in January. Across the year that is 26 points between the best and worst months. Moving flexible dates out of that month is one of the few things that reliably helps.
Related
Where to go next
- MKE to DCA — the return legseparate record
- Ronald Reagan Washington National (DCA) delay statistics
- Milwaukee Mitchell International (MKE) delay statistics
- Southwest Airlines on DCA to MKE82.5%
- PSA Airlines on DCA to MKE69.3%
- DCA to BOS, a related route70.1%
- ORD to MKE, a related route64.3%
- DCA to ORD, a related route73.8%
- Republic Airways on-time record83.3%
- Southwest Airlines on-time record82.5%
- PSA Airlines on-time record69.3%
- The US routes with the most cancellations
- Why the first flight of the morning is statistically safest
Direction matters. DCA to MKE and MKE to DCA are scored separately because they are separate operations, with different departure banks and different aircraft. Compare the return leg.
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Source: US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics, on-time performance data, September 2025 to August 2026. Last updated ; recomputed monthly. How this data is collected.