Route reliability record
ATL→MSP
Atlanta to Minneapolis
- Flights
- 3,509
- Period
- September 2025 to August 2026
- Distance
- 907 mi
- Carriers
- 3
This route lands a B+, 3 points better than the national rate of 77.3%. About one flight in five arrives 15 minutes late or worse, and those flights are late by about an hour on average. That rests on 3,509 ATL to MSP flights, with a median arrival 5 minutes early.
Best time to fly ATL to MSP: a 5am–8am departure, ideally on a Wednesday. Flights in that window arrived on time 92.4% of the time and Wednesday flights 84.6%, against 79.9% for the route overall.
The US average over the same twelve months is 77.3%, so there is little to separate this route from the country as a whole. The variation that matters here is internal: which carrier, and what time of day.
Key figures
On time
79.9%
Arrivals under 15 minutes late, of 3,489 completed flights
Avg delay
56 min
Across delayed arrivals only, not all flights
Cancelled
0.43%
National rate is 1.89%
Best carrier
Delta
81.1% on time across 3,227 flights
These figures cover 3,509 flights between September 2025 and August 2026. The median arrival is 5 minutes early, which is the part an average hides: most flights here are fine, and the on-time rate is decided by a tail of badly late ones. On-time means under 15 minutes late, the DOT's own threshold.
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Carrier by carrier
Which airline is most reliable on ATL to MSP
Only one carrier clears this site's 365-flight floor here, so there is no comparison to draw. The table below is the full picture.
| Airline | Flights | On time | Avg delay | Cancelled | Grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spirit Airlinesthin sample | 72 | 81.9% | 64 min | 0.00% | B+ |
| Delta Air Lines | 3,227 | 81.1% | 55 min | 0.40% | B+ |
| Frontier Airlinesthin sample | 210 | 61.1% | 58 min | 0.95% | D+ |
Flight by flight
Flights on ATL to MSP
The flight numbers below flew this route at least 250 times in the period, busiest first. Each has its own record, with its schedule and delay causes.
- Delta 131022:4577.6% · 365 flights
- Delta 266807:2592.0% · 364 flights
- Delta 290112:1585.6% · 363 flights
- Delta 265417:5968.6% · 350 flights
- Delta 282514:3184.1% · 347 flights
- Delta 298115:5872.2% · 344 flights
- Delta 296008:3589.0% · 327 flights
- Delta 128019:5968.8% · 315 flights
- Delta 209009:5589.2% · 290 flights
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Departure window
The best time of day to leave
Departure time matters more here than the choice of carrier. The gap between the best and worst window is 21 points, against half a point between the best and worst carrier.
- 5am–8am400 flights92.4%
- 8am–11am822 flights86.4%
- 11am–2pm608 flights80.2%
- 2pm–5pm682 flights71.7%
- 5pm–8pm438 flights76.6%
- 8pm–5am559 flights73.5%
Scale runs 65% to 100%.
Book the early departure. Flights leaving between 5am–8am arrive on time 92.4% of the time, against 71.7% for the afternoon window. That is 21 points of difference for no extra money, and it comes from the same aircraft having had no earlier flight to fall behind on. The 8am–11am window is the busiest, with 822 flights scheduled in it.
Explore
Filter ATL to MSP by airline, time, month and day
Pick a breakdown and a carrier. The dashed mark on each row is the same slice for every US flight.
On ATL to MSP, the best departure window is 5am–8am at 92.4% on time and the worst is 2pm–5pm at 71.7%, a wide gap of 20.7 points. All US flights leaving 5am–8am ran 89.3%.
- 5–8am92.4%
- 8–11am86.4%
- 11am–2pm80.2%
- 2–5pm71.7%
- 5–8pm76.6%
- 8pm–5am73.5%
best all US flightsScale 60% to 95%.
Across the year
When delays peak on this route
This route's year swings by 24 points from best month to worst, which is wide. An annual average tells you very little about the week you are actually flying, so read the strip rather than the headline if your dates are fixed.
July is the worst month at 64.1% on time, 24 points below September, the best at 88.1%. Summer afternoon convection and peak-season schedules land on the same weeks every year, so this is a pattern you can book around rather than a run of bad luck. October was the busiest month here, with 323 flights.
Across the week, Wednesday is the strongest day at 84.6% on time and Sunday the weakest at 73.8%, a spread of 11 points.
Delay causes
Why this route gets delayed
Carrier accounts for 51% of the 39,000 delay minutes carriers reported here, and the remaining four split what is left.
- 51%Carrier
- 25%Late-arriving aircraft
- 18%National Airspace System
- 5%Extreme weather
The largest share of delay minutes, 51%, falls under carrier control: crew scheduling, maintenance, fuelling, baggage. It accounts for 20,000 of the 39,000 delay minutes reported here. The split is drawn from 39,115 reported delay minutes.
Cancellations are rare at 0.43%, below the national 1.89% and low enough to earn the plus on the grade. Roughly one flight in 100 is called off; the risk here is arriving late, not not arriving.
Connections and stage length
What a delay here actually costs
5.7% of arrivals land an hour or more late, close to the national 8.3%, so a 60 to 75 minute layover is reasonable here while anything under 45 minutes is a bet. Most delays on this route last about an hour, which a normal layover absorbs.
The 907 miles between these two airports put this in the middle of the US network, around two and a half to three hours of block time. That is enough cruise to absorb a ten-minute late pushback and not enough to absorb thirty.
The return leg runs 81.7% on time across 3,489 flights, within 2 points of this direction. The two legs are scored separately because they usually differ; on this city pair they happen not to.
The sample behind these figures is 3,509 flights, enough that the headline rate is stable to within roughly a point. The hour-block and month splits divide that further, so read the thinner bars with more caution than the headline.
Work out the risk of missing a connection in MSP after this flight
What to do with this
Booking this route
Put together: the calendar is the biggest lever here, not the carrier or the hour. September runs 88.1% on time and July 64.1%, a swing of 24 points. If the dates move at all, move them out of July before you think about anything else. 3,489 completed flights over 12 months sit behind that.
Common questions
ATL to MSP questions
How often is ATL to MSP delayed?
About one flight in five arrives at least 15 minutes late, which is the Department of Transportation's definition of a delayed arrival. That works out to 20.1% of the 3,509 flights in this analysis, against 22.7% nationally. Delayed flights are late by about an hour on average.
How reliable is ATL to MSP compared with the rest of the country?
79.9% of flights arrive on time here against a national 77.3%, a difference of 3 points in its favour. That is worth a B+ on this site's grading scale.
What time of day has the fewest delays on ATL to MSP?
The 5am–8am departure window is the strongest at 92.4% on time. The 2pm–5pm window is the weakest at 71.7%, 21 points behind. Later departures inherit delays from earlier flights the same aircraft has already flown, which is why the curve slopes the way it does.
How bad are July delays on ATL to MSP?
July is the weakest month at 64.1% on time, compared with 88.1% in September. Across the year that is 24 points between the best and worst months. Moving flexible dates out of that month is one of the few things that reliably helps.
Related
Where to go next
- MSP to ATL — the return legseparate record
- Hartsfield-Jackson Atlanta International (ATL) delay statistics
- Minneapolis-St Paul International (MSP) delay statistics
- Delta Air Lines on ATL to MSP81.1%
- Frontier Airlines on ATL to MSP61.1%
- ATL to LGA, a related route72.3%
- ORD to MSP, a related route69.9%
- ATL to MCO, a related route70.3%
- Spirit Airlines on-time record81.9%
- Delta Air Lines on-time record81.1%
- Frontier Airlines on-time record61.1%
- The best time of day to fly, according to 7.05 million flight records
- Worst months to fly in the US, ranked by the data
Direction matters. ATL to MSP and MSP to ATL are scored separately because they are separate operations, with different departure banks and different aircraft. Compare the return leg.
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Source: US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics, on-time performance data, September 2025 to August 2026. Last updated ; recomputed monthly. How this data is collected.