Route reliability record
SFO→DCA
San Francisco to Washington
- Flights
- 1,090
- Period
- September 2025 to August 2026
- Distance
- 2,442 mi
- Carriers
- 2
This route lands a B+, about a point better than the national rate of 77.3%. About one flight in five arrives 15 minutes late or worse, and those flights are late by about an hour on average. That rests on 1,090 SFO to DCA flights, with a median arrival 10 minutes early.
Best time to fly SFO to DCA: a 8am–11am departure, ideally on a Saturday. Flights in that window arrived on time 83.1% of the time and Saturday flights 86.1%, against 78.4% for the route overall.
The US average over the same twelve months is 77.3%, so there is little to separate this route from the country as a whole. The variation that matters here is internal: which carrier, and what time of day.
Key figures
On time
78.4%
Arrivals under 15 minutes late, of 1,078 completed flights
Avg delay
55 min
Across delayed arrivals only, not all flights
Cancelled
0.64%
National rate is 1.89%
Best carrier
United
78.4% on time across 727 flights
These figures cover 1,090 flights between September 2025 and August 2026. The median arrival is 10 minutes early, which is the part an average hides: most flights here are fine, and the on-time rate is decided by a tail of badly late ones. On-time means under 15 minutes late, the DOT's own threshold.
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Carrier by carrier
Which airline is most reliable on SFO to DCA
Only one carrier clears this site's 365-flight floor here, so there is no comparison to draw. The table below is the full picture.
| Airline | Flights | On time | Avg delay | Cancelled | Grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| United Airlines | 727 | 78.4% | 58 min | 0.55% | B+ |
| Alaska Airlinesthin sample | 363 | 78.3% | 51 min | 0.83% | B+ |
Flight by flight
Flights on SFO to DCA
The flight numbers below flew this route at least 250 times in the period, busiest first. Each has its own record, with its schedule and delay causes.
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Best ways to make this trip
The most reliable ways to fly San Francisco to Washington
Every airline on this route and on the routes between nearby airports, ranked by how often a scheduled flight actually operated and arrived on time. 3 of the top 4 use a different airport at one end.
| Option | Airline | Success | On time | Cancelled | Best departure | Most punctual flight |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. SFO → BWISan Francisco to Baltimore | United Airlines | 90.4% | 90.8% | 0.45% | 8am–11am, Tue | UA 2664 09:09 |
| 2. SFO → IADSan Francisco to Washington | United Airlines | 82.5% | 83.0% | 0.63% | 5am–8am, Tue | UA 1453 16:55 |
| 3. SFO → DCASan Francisco to Washington | United Airlines | 78.0% | 78.4% | 0.55% | 8am–11am, Sat | UA 1678 08:20 |
| 4. SFO → BWISan Francisco to Baltimore | Southwest Airlines | 62.5% | 63.0% | 0.82% | 8pm–5am, Tue | — |
Success is the share of scheduled flights that operated and arrived less than 15 minutes late, so a cancelled flight counts against it. “(route)” means the best time comes from every carrier on the route rather than this airline alone.
Departure window
The best time of day to leave
Departure time matters more here than the choice of carrier. The gap between the best and worst window is 24 points, against half a point between the best and worst carrier.
- 5am–8am—
- 8am–11am726 flights83.1%
- 11am–2pm209 flights76.8%
- 2pm–5pm155 flights58.7%
- 5pm–8pm—
- 8pm–5am—
Scale runs 50% to 90%. Rows with fewer than 30 flights show a dash.
Book the morning departure. Flights leaving between 8am–11am arrive on time 83.1% of the time, against 58.7% for the afternoon window. That is 24 points of difference for no extra money, and it comes from the same aircraft having had no earlier flight to fall behind on. The 8am–11am window is the busiest, with 726 flights scheduled in it.
Explore
Filter SFO to DCA by airline, time, month and day
Pick a breakdown and a carrier. The dashed mark on each row is the same slice for every US flight.
On SFO to DCA, the best departure window is 8am–11am at 83.1% on time and the worst is 2pm–5pm at 58.7%, a wide gap of 24.4 points. All US flights leaving 8am–11am ran 83.9%.
- 5–8am—
- 8–11am83.1%
- 11am–2pm76.8%
- 2–5pm58.7%
- 5–8pm—
- 8pm–5am—
best all US flightsScale 50% to 95%. Cells under 30 flights show a dash.
Across the year
When delays peak on this route
This route's year swings by 24 points from best month to worst, which is wide. An annual average tells you very little about the week you are actually flying, so read the strip rather than the headline if your dates are fixed.
July is the worst month at 65.6% on time, 24 points below January, the best at 89.8%. Summer afternoon convection and peak-season schedules land on the same weeks every year, so this is a pattern you can book around rather than a run of bad luck. January was the busiest month here, with 93 flights.
Across the week, Saturday is the strongest day at 86.1% on time and Thursday the weakest at 72.7%, a spread of 13 points.
Delay causes
Why this route gets delayed
National Airspace System accounts for 48% of the 13,000 delay minutes carriers reported here, and the remaining four split what is left.
- 48%National Airspace System
- 39%Late-arriving aircraft
- 13%Carrier
- 0%Security
- 0%Extreme weather
39% of delay minutes trace back to a late-arriving aircraft, meaning the plane was already behind before it got here. Across 13,000 reported delay minutes here, that single category outweighs weather by 39 to one. The split is drawn from 12,881 reported delay minutes.
48% of delay minutes are charged to the National Airspace System: air traffic volume, runway configuration, ground stops. No carrier can price its way out of that, which is why airport choice moves the number here more than carrier choice does. That is 6,179 minutes out of 13,000, against a national NAS share of 21%.
Cancellations are rare at 0.64%, below the national 1.89% and low enough to earn the plus on the grade. Roughly one flight in 100 is called off; the risk here is arriving late, not not arriving.
Connections and stage length
What a delay here actually costs
6.8% of arrivals land an hour or more late, close to the national 8.3%, so a 60 to 75 minute layover is reasonable here while anything under 45 minutes is a bet. Most delays on this route last about an hour, which a normal layover absorbs.
At 2,442 miles this is transcontinental flying, and long routes get a quiet structural advantage. Scheduled block time on a flight this length carries more padding in absolute minutes, so a twenty-minute late departure often still becomes an on-time arrival. Read the on-time rate here as slightly flattering next to a short-haul route with the same operational quality.
The return leg is a different operation and performs like one: it runs 71.9% on time across 1,090 flights, 7 points below this direction. Departure banks, aircraft rotations and the congestion at each end all differ, so scoring the two directions together would average away a real 7 points of difference.
One caution: this is a thin sample. 1,090 flights over twelve months is enough to clear this site's floor but not enough to pin the rate down tightly, and a single bad week moves it by more than a point. Treat the grade as a rough reading.
Work out the risk of missing a connection in DCA after this flight
What to do with this
Booking this route
Put together: treat all of this as provisional. 1,090 flights over twelve months is enough to clear this site's floor and not enough to be confident to better than a couple of points. The 78.4% headline is the most reliable number on the page; the hour and month splits below it are built on a few dozen flights each. 1,078 completed flights over 12 months sit behind that.
Common questions
SFO to DCA questions
How often is SFO to DCA delayed?
About one flight in five arrives at least 15 minutes late, which is the Department of Transportation's definition of a delayed arrival. That works out to 21.6% of the 1,090 flights in this analysis, against 22.7% nationally. Delayed flights are late by about an hour on average.
How reliable is SFO to DCA compared with the rest of the country?
78.4% of flights arrive on time here against a national 77.3%, a difference of about a point in its favour. That is worth a B+ on this site's grading scale.
What time of day has the fewest delays on SFO to DCA?
The 8am–11am departure window is the strongest at 83.1% on time. The 2pm–5pm window is the weakest at 58.7%, 24 points behind. Later departures inherit delays from earlier flights the same aircraft has already flown, which is why the curve slopes the way it does.
How bad are July delays on SFO to DCA?
July is the weakest month at 65.6% on time, compared with 89.8% in January. Across the year that is 24 points between the best and worst months. Moving flexible dates out of that month is one of the few things that reliably helps.
Related
Where to go next
- DCA to SFO — the return legseparate record
- San Francisco International (SFO) delay statistics
- Ronald Reagan Washington National (DCA) delay statistics
- United Airlines on SFO to DCA78.4%
- Alaska Airlines on SFO to DCA78.3%
- SFO to LAX, a related route70.9%
- BOS to DCA, a related route72.6%
- SFO to SEA, a related route72.3%
- United Airlines on-time record78.4%
- Alaska Airlines on-time record78.3%
- Why the first flight of the morning is statistically safest
- The best time of day to fly, according to 7.05 million flight records
Direction matters. SFO to DCA and DCA to SFO are scored separately because they are separate operations, with different departure banks and different aircraft. Compare the return leg.
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Source: US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics, on-time performance data, September 2025 to August 2026. Last updated ; recomputed monthly. How this data is collected.