Route reliability record
SAN→SEA
San Diego to Seattle
- Flights
- 4,573
- Period
- June 2025 to May 2026
- Distance
- 1,050 mi
- Carriers
- 4
This route lands a B, 3 points better than the national rate of 77.4%. About one flight in five arrive 15 minutes late or worse, and those flights are late by about an hour on average. That is a workable record, not a spotless one. That rests on 4,573 flights, of which Delta Air Lines flew 1,698 at 87.2% on time.
The US average over the same twelve months is 77.4%, so there is little to separate this route from the country as a whole. The variation that matters here is internal: which carrier, and what time of day.
Key figures
On time
80.5%
Arrivals under 15 minutes late, of 4,492 completed flights
Avg delay
65 min
Across delayed arrivals only, not all flights
Cancelled
1.68%
National rate is 1.80%
Best carrier
Delta
87.2% on time across 1,698 flights
These figures cover 4,573 flights between June 2025 and May 2026. The median arrival is 8 minutes early, which is the part an average hides: most flights here are fine, and the on-time rate is decided by a tail of badly late ones. On-time means under 15 minutes late, the DOT's own threshold.
Carrier by carrier
Which airline is most reliable on SAN to SEA
The choice of carrier is not cosmetic here. Delta Air Lines arrives on time 87.2% of the time; Alaska Airlines manages 77.0%. Sample sizes sit next to every figure, because a two-point gap across 2,786 flights means less than a ten-point one.
| Airline | Flights | On time | Avg delay | Cancelled | Grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Delta Air Lines | 1,698 | 87.2% | 79 min | 1.00% | A |
| Alaska Airlines | 2,786 | 77.0% | 61 min | 2.15% | B |
| Southwest Airlinesthin sample | 88 | 62.1% | 43 min | 0.00% | D+ |
| SkyWest Airlinesthin sample | 1 | 0.0% | 28 min | 0.00% | F+ |
Delta leads Alaska by 10 points. Real, but small enough that a better departure time on the weaker carrier can outweigh it.
Departure window
The best time of day to leave
Departure time matters more here than the choice of carrier. The gap between the best and worst window is 15 points, against 10 points between the best and worst carrier. Each bar is the on-time rate for flights scheduled inside that window.
- 5am–8am856 flights90.0%
- 8am–11am449 flights77.2%
- 11am–2pm1,152 flights80.7%
- 2pm–5pm975 flights80.2%
- 5pm–8pm913 flights74.7%
- 8pm–5am228 flights75.7%
Scale runs 65% to 95%. Rows with fewer than 30 flights show a dash.
Book the early departure. Flights leaving between 5am–8am arrive on time 90.0% of the time, against 74.7% for the evening window. That is 15 points of difference for no extra money, and it comes from the same aircraft having had no earlier flight to fall behind on.
Across the year
When delays peak on this route
This route's year swings by 23 points from best month to worst, which is wide. An annual average tells you very little about the week you are actually flying, so read the strip rather than the headline if your dates are fixed.
August is the worst month at 69.3% on time, 23 points below February, the best at 92.1%. Summer afternoon convection and peak-season schedules land on the same weeks every year, so this is a pattern you can book around rather than a run of bad luck.
Across the week, Tuesday is the strongest day at 86.4% on time and Friday the weakest at 74.0%. 12 points is a smaller lever than departure hour, but it is free.
Delay causes
Why this route gets delayed
One category carries most of the weight here. Late-arriving aircraft accounts for 52% of the 57,000 delay minutes carriers reported, and the remaining four split what is left. The split is by minutes rather than by flights, so a few very long delays count for as much as many short ones.
- 52%Late-arriving aircraft
- 30%Carrier
- 17%National Airspace System
- 1%Extreme weather
- 0%Security
52% of delay minutes trace back to a late-arriving aircraft, meaning the plane was already behind before it got here. That is a cascade, and cascades start small and grow through the day. Across 57,000 reported delay minutes here, that single category outweighs weather by 52 to one. It is the strongest argument for booking the first departure of the morning, when the aircraft has been sitting at the gate overnight with nothing to inherit.
The practical consequence: the 5am–8am departure is the one that starts clean. Its aircraft has no earlier leg to be late from, which is exactly why that window shows 90.0% on time here.
Cancellations sit at 1.68% against a national 1.80%, which is ordinary. Diversions add another 0.09%.
Connections and stage length
What a delay here actually costs
5.8% of arrivals land an hour or more late, close to the national 8.2%. That is the figure that decides a connection, and it says a 60 to 75 minute layover is reasonable here while anything under 45 minutes is a bet. Most delays on this route are the about an hour kind, which a normal layover absorbs.
The 1,050 miles between these two airports put this in the middle of the US network, around two and a half to three hours of block time. That is enough cruise to absorb a ten-minute late pushback and not enough to absorb thirty. It is also long enough that the aircraft usually flies three or four legs a day rather than six, which slows how fast delay compounds.
The return leg runs 77.7% on time across 4,575 flights, within 3 points of this direction. The two legs are scored separately because they usually differ; on this city pair they happen not to.
The sample behind these figures is 4,573 flights, enough that the headline rate is stable to within roughly a point. The hour-block and month splits divide that further, so read the thinner bars with more caution than the headline.
What to do with this
Booking this route
Put together: the calendar is the biggest lever here, not the carrier or the hour. February runs 92.1% on time and August 69.3%, a swing of 23 points. If the dates move at all, move them out of August before you think about anything else.
Common questions
SAN to SEA questions
How often is SAN to SEA delayed?
About one flight in five arrive at least 15 minutes late, which is the Department of Transportation's definition of a delayed arrival. That works out to 19.5% of the 4,573 flights in this analysis, against 22.6% nationally. Delayed flights are late by about an hour on average.
Which airline is most reliable on SAN to SEA?
Delta Air Lines leads at 87.2% on time across 1,698 flights. Alaska Airlines is at the other end on 77.0%, a gap of 10 points. Sample size matters as much as the percentage: a rate built from a few hundred flights moves around far more than one built from ten thousand.
What time of day has the fewest delays on SAN to SEA?
The 5am–8am departure window is the strongest at 90.0% on time. The 5pm–8pm window is the weakest at 74.7%, 15 points behind. Later departures inherit delays from earlier flights the same aircraft has already flown, which is why the curve slopes the way it does.
How bad are August delays on SAN to SEA?
August is the weakest month at 69.3% on time, compared with 92.1% in February. Across the year that is 23 points between the best and worst months. Moving flexible dates out of that month is one of the few things that reliably helps.
Related
Where to go next
- SEA to SAN — the return legseparate record
- San Diego International (SAN) delay statistics
- Seattle-Tacoma International (SEA) delay statistics
- Delta Air Lines on-time record87.2%
- Alaska Airlines on-time record77.0%
- Southwest Airlines on-time record62.1%
- Why the first flight of the morning is statistically safest
- The best time of day to fly, according to 7.05 million flight records
Direction matters. SAN to SEA and SEA to SAN are scored separately because they are separate operations, with different departure banks and different aircraft. Compare the return leg.
Source: US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics, on-time performance data, June 2025 to May 2026. Updated monthly. How this data is collected.