Carrier route record
YXORD→ORF
Republic Airways · Chicago to Norfolk
- Flights
- 447
- Period
- September 2025 to August 2026
- Share of route
- 23%
- Carriers
- 6
Historical statistics for September 2025 to August 2026, not live status. For today’s flights, check with Republic Airways.
Republic on ORD to ORF lands a B, 4 points better than the national rate of 77.3%. About one flight in five arrives 15 minutes late or worse, and those flights are late by a little over an hour on average. That rests on 447 flights. The strongest carrier on the route with a full sample, Envoy Air, flew 443 at 79.8% on time.
Set against the rest of the country, Republic's ORD to ORF record is 4 points better than the US average of 77.3%. That gap is worth roughly 41 fewer late arrivals for every thousand flights.
Key figures
On time
81.4%
Arrivals under 15 minutes late, of 441 completed flights
Avg delay
75 min
Across delayed arrivals only, not all flights
Cancelled
1.12%
National rate is 1.89%
Whole route
71.8%
Every carrier on ORD to ORF, 1,957 flights
These figures cover 447 flights between September 2025 and August 2026. The median arrival is 11 minutes early, which is the part an average hides: most flights here are fine, and the on-time rate is decided by a tail of badly late ones. On-time means under 15 minutes late, the DOT's own threshold.
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Carrier by carrier
Republic against every carrier on ORD to ORF
Republic flew 447 of the 1,957 flights on ORD to ORF, about 23% of it. Its 81.4% on time is 10 points better than the route as a whole, which runs 71.8%. Ranked by on-time rate it is first of six carriers on the route, where the range runs from Republic at 81.4% to PSA at 52.4%. Three of those carriers flew fewer than 365 flights here, so treat their positions as rough.
The choice of carrier is not cosmetic here. Envoy Air arrives on time 79.8% of the time; United Airlines manages 66.1%. Sample sizes sit next to every figure, because a two-point gap across 590 flights means less than a ten-point one.
| Airline | Flights | On time | Avg delay | Cancelled | Grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republic Airways (this page) | 447 | 81.4% | 75 min | 1.12% | B |
| Envoy Air | 443 | 79.8% | 61 min | 2.26% | B |
| SkyWest Airlinesthin sample | 280 | 68.2% | 52 min | 2.14% | C |
| United Airlines | 590 | 66.1% | 70 min | 1.53% | C |
| American Airlinesthin sample | 11 | 54.5% | 61 min | 0.00% | F+ |
| PSA Airlinesthin sample | 186 | 52.4% | 89 min | 10.75% | F− |
The spread between Envoy and United is 14 points, wide enough that it should decide the booking. On a hundred trips that is 14 more arrivals inside the on-time window.
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Departure window
When Republic runs best on this route
Departure time matters more here than the choice of carrier. The gap between the best and worst window is 31 points, against 14 points between the best and worst carrier.
- 5am–8am84 flights91.7%
- 8am–11am97 flights84.5%
- 11am–2pm54 flights75.5%
- 2pm–5pm61 flights90.2%
- 5pm–8pm115 flights75.5%
- 8pm–5am36 flights61.1%
Scale runs 55% to 95%.
The 8pm–5am window is where this operation falls apart: 61.1% on time, against 91.7% for the 5am–8am slot. By evening the aircraft flying these rotations have absorbed a full day of small delays and there is no slack left to recover in. The 5pm–8pm window is the busiest, with 115 flights scheduled in it.
Across the year
Republic on ORD to ORF through the year
- Jul–Sep 202580 flights83.8%
- Oct–Dec 2025148 flights77.7%
- Jan–Mar 202618 flights—
- Apr–Jun 202697 flights86.0%
- Jul–Sep 2026104 flights80.4%
Scale runs 70% to 90%. Rows with fewer than 30 flights show a dash.
Monthly volumes are too low here to break the year into twelve reliable readings. What the twelve-month total says is 81.4% on time across 447 flights.
Quarter by quarter Republic on ORD to ORF held fairly steady: 83.8% in Jul–Sep 2025, 77.7% in Oct–Dec 2025, 86.0% in Apr–Jun 2026 and 80.4% in Jul–Sep 2026. A spread of 8 points is about what a sample of this size moves on its own, so the annual figure is a fair summary.
Across the week, Thursday is the strongest day at 89.4% on time and Saturday the weakest at 68.5%, a spread of 21 points.
Arrival by arrival
How late Republic on ORD to ORF runs when it is late
Republic on ORD to ORF often beats the schedule: 184 of 441 completed flights, 42%, arrived 15 minutes or more early. The 82 late arrivals split 25 under half an hour, 29 between 30 and 60 minutes, and 28 an hour or more.
- 15+ min early184 flights41.7%
- Within 15 min175 flights39.7%
- 15–29 min late25 flights5.7%
- 30–59 min late29 flights6.6%
- 1–2 hours late15 flights3.4%
- 2+ hours late13 flights2.9%
Scale runs 0% to 100%.
Share of 441 completed flights by arrival against schedule.
20 of 86 late departures made up the time and arrived on time, 23% of them. 16 flights left on time and still arrived late.
The worst days
Worst days for Republic on ORD to ORF
The latest arrival of the period was on 24 June 2026, 12 hours 5 minutes behind schedule; most of its delay minutes were filed as a late-arriving aircraft. The same cause led on four of the five worst days.
| Date | Arrived late by | Largest filed cause |
|---|---|---|
| 24 June 2026 | 12 hours 5 minutes | Late-arriving aircraft |
| 6 July 2026 | 10 hours 30 minutes | Extreme weather |
| 18 October 2025 | 4 hours 15 minutes | Late-arriving aircraft |
| 21 July 2026 | 3 hours 55 minutes | Late-arriving aircraft |
| 21 September 2025 | 3 hours 9 minutes | Late-arriving aircraft |
Delay causes
Why Republic runs late on this route
Late-arriving aircraft accounts for 49% of the 6,157 delay minutes carriers reported here, and the remaining four split what is left.
- 49%Late-arriving aircraft
- 19%Carrier
- 18%Extreme weather
- 14%National Airspace System
Extreme weather accounts for 18% of delay minutes, well above the single-digit share typical across the system. Weather delays are lumpy: they arrive as whole bad days rather than as a steady drag, so the monthly strip above is the more useful view of the risk. The national share is 6%, so this operation carries roughly 2.9 times the usual weather exposure. The split is drawn from 6,157 reported delay minutes.
49% of delay minutes trace back to a late-arriving aircraft, meaning the plane was already behind before it got here. Across 6,157 reported delay minutes here, that single category outweighs weather by 3 to one.
Cancellations sit at 1.12% against a national 1.89%, which is ordinary. Diversions add another 0.22%.
Connections and stage length
What a delay here costs
6.3% of arrivals land an hour or more late, close to the national 8.3%, so a 60 to 75 minute layover is reasonable here while anything under 45 minutes is a bet. Most delays on this route last a little over an hour, which a normal layover absorbs.
The 717 miles between these two airports put this in the middle of the US network, around two and a half to three hours of block time. That is enough cruise to absorb a ten-minute late pushback and not enough to absorb thirty.
The return leg runs 80.7% on time across 448 flights, within half a point of this direction. The two legs are scored separately because they usually differ; on this city pair they happen not to.
One caution: this is a thin sample. 447 flights over twelve months is enough to clear this site's floor but not enough to pin the rate down tightly, and a single bad week moves it by more than a point. Treat the grade as a rough reading.
What to do with this
Booking Republic on ORD to ORF
Put together: treat all of this as provisional. 447 flights over twelve months is enough to clear this site's floor and not enough to be confident to better than a couple of points. The 81.4% headline is the most reliable number on the page; the hour and month splits below it are built on a few dozen flights each. 441 completed flights over 12 months sit behind that.
Related
Where to go next
- ORD to ORF, every carrier
- Republic on ORF to ORD, the return leg
- Envoy Air on ORD to ORF79.8%
- SkyWest Airlines on ORD to ORF68.2%
- United Airlines on ORD to ORF66.1%
- PSA Airlines on ORD to ORF52.4%
- Republic Airways network-wide record
- Chicago O'Hare International (ORD) delay statistics
- Why the first flight of the morning is statistically safest
- Same route, different airline: where the carrier you pick matters most
Source: US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics, on-time performance data, September 2025 to August 2026. Last updated ; recomputed monthly. How this data is collected.