Route reliability record
DFW→ORD
Dallas-Fort Worth to Chicago
- Flights
- 6,933
- Period
- June 2025 to May 2026
- Distance
- 802 mi
- Carriers
- 7
This route sits in the middle of the pack with a C−. About seven flights in ten arrive on time by the DOT's definition, 9 points worse than the national rate of 77.4%. The late ones land an hour and a half behind schedule. That rests on 6,933 flights, of which United Airlines flew 1,984 at 72.7% on time.
United Airlines is the most reliable of the three carriers covered here at 72.7% on time across 1,984 flights.
Key figures
On time
68.4%
Arrivals under 15 minutes late, of 6,692 completed flights
Avg delay
83 min
Across delayed arrivals only, not all flights
Cancelled
3.01%
National rate is 1.80%
Best carrier
United
72.7% on time across 1,984 flights
These figures cover 6,933 flights between June 2025 and May 2026. Beyond the headline rate, 12.7% of arrivals land a full hour or more behind schedule. That is the number that wrecks a connection, and it is not visible in an on-time percentage alone.
Carrier by carrier
Which airline is most reliable on DFW to ORD
The choice of carrier is not cosmetic here. United Airlines arrives on time 72.7% of the time; American Airlines manages 66.4%. Sample sizes sit next to every figure, because a two-point gap across 4,231 flights means less than a ten-point one.
| Airline | Flights | On time | Avg delay | Cancelled | Grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republic Airwaysthin sample | 12 | 75.0% | 61 min | 0.00% | B+ |
| United Airlines | 1,984 | 72.7% | 90 min | 1.56% | C |
| Frontier Airlines | 426 | 69.5% | 87 min | 3.52% | C− |
| Envoy Airthin sample | 131 | 66.7% | 68 min | 3.05% | C− |
| American Airlines | 4,231 | 66.4% | 80 min | 3.71% | C− |
| Spirit Airlinesthin sample | 147 | 66.2% | 85 min | 1.36% | C |
| SkyWest Airlinesthin sample | 2 | 50.0% | 15 min | 0.00% | F+ |
American Airlines cancels 3.7% of what it schedules here, the highest in the table. A cancelled flight never appears in an on-time rate, so read that column alongside the punctuality one rather than after it.
Departure window
The best time of day to leave
Departure time matters more here than the choice of carrier. The gap between the best and worst window is 25 points, against 6 points between the best and worst carrier. Each bar is the on-time rate for flights scheduled inside that window.
- 5am–8am1,275 flights81.0%
- 8am–11am1,287 flights78.0%
- 11am–2pm1,010 flights66.5%
- 2pm–5pm1,208 flights61.0%
- 5pm–8pm1,150 flights55.6%
- 8pm–5am1,003 flights65.3%
Scale runs 45% to 85%. Rows with fewer than 30 flights show a dash.
The 5pm–8pm window is where this operation falls apart: 55.6% on time, against 81.0% for the 5am–8am slot. By evening the aircraft flying these rotations have absorbed a full day of small delays and there is no slack left to recover in.
Across the year
When delays peak on this route
This route's year swings by 19 points from best month to worst, which is wide. An annual average tells you very little about the week you are actually flying, so read the strip rather than the headline if your dates are fixed.
July is the worst month at 60.9% on time, 19 points below February, the best at 79.8%. Summer afternoon convection and peak-season schedules land on the same weeks every year, so this is a pattern you can book around rather than a run of bad luck.
Across the week, Tuesday is the strongest day at 74.3% on time and Sunday the weakest at 59.8%. 15 points is a smaller lever than departure hour, but it is free.
Delay causes
Why this route gets delayed
One category carries most of the weight here. Late-arriving aircraft accounts for 44% of the 175,000 delay minutes carriers reported, and the remaining four split what is left. The split is by minutes rather than by flights, so a few very long delays count for as much as many short ones.
- 44%Late-arriving aircraft
- 25%National Airspace System
- 25%Carrier
- 7%Extreme weather
- 0%Security
44% of delay minutes trace back to a late-arriving aircraft, meaning the plane was already behind before it got here. That is a cascade, and cascades start small and grow through the day. Across 175,000 reported delay minutes here, that single category outweighs weather by 7 to one. It is the strongest argument for booking the first departure of the morning, when the aircraft has been sitting at the gate overnight with nothing to inherit.
The practical consequence: the 5am–8am departure is the one that starts clean. Its aircraft has no earlier leg to be late from, which is exactly why that window shows 81.0% on time here.
Cancellations run at 3.01%, against 1.80% nationally. That is roughly one flight in 30 cancelled outright. A cancelled flight is invisible in every on-time figure on this page, so the punctuality numbers above describe only the flights that actually operated.
Connections and stage length
What a delay here actually costs
For anyone connecting, the number to weigh is not the on-time rate but the tail behind it. 12.7% of arrivals land a full hour or more behind schedule, against 8.2% nationally. A 45-minute layover does not survive that, and no amount of walking quickly changes it. Ninety minutes is the honest minimum here, and two hours if the onward flight is on a separate ticket.
The 802 miles between these two airports put this in the middle of the US network, around two and a half to three hours of block time. That is enough cruise to absorb a ten-minute late pushback and not enough to absorb thirty. It is also long enough that the aircraft usually flies three or four legs a day rather than six, which slows how fast delay compounds.
The return leg runs 69.8% on time across 6,925 flights, within about a point of this direction. The two legs are scored separately because they usually differ; on this city pair they happen not to.
The sample behind these figures is 6,933 flights, enough that the headline rate is stable to within roughly a point. The hour-block and month splits divide that further, so read the thinner bars with more caution than the headline.
What to do with this
Booking this route
Put together: the delay figures matter less here than the 3.01% cancellation rate. A late arrival costs you an hour and a half; a cancelled flight costs you the day. Book the 5am–8am departure so there is still a schedule behind you if it goes wrong, and treat a same-day connection as optimistic.
Common questions
DFW to ORD questions
How often is DFW to ORD delayed?
About one flight in three arrive at least 15 minutes late, which is the Department of Transportation's definition of a delayed arrival. That works out to 31.6% of the 6,933 flights in this analysis, against 22.6% nationally. Delayed flights are late by an hour and a half on average.
Which airline is most reliable on DFW to ORD?
United Airlines leads at 72.7% on time across 1,984 flights. American Airlines is at the other end on 66.4%, a gap of 6 points. Sample size matters as much as the percentage: a rate built from a few hundred flights moves around far more than one built from ten thousand.
What time of day has the fewest delays on DFW to ORD?
The 5am–8am departure window is the strongest at 81.0% on time. The 5pm–8pm window is the weakest at 55.6%, 25 points behind. Later departures inherit delays from earlier flights the same aircraft has already flown, which is why the curve slopes the way it does.
How bad are July delays on DFW to ORD?
July is the weakest month at 60.9% on time, compared with 79.8% in February. Across the year that is 19 points between the best and worst months. Moving flexible dates out of that month is one of the few things that reliably helps.
Related
Where to go next
- ORD to DFW — the return legseparate record
- Dallas/Fort Worth International (DFW) delay statistics
- Chicago O'Hare International (ORD) delay statistics
- Republic Airways on-time record75.0%
- United Airlines on-time record72.7%
- Frontier Airlines on-time record69.5%
- Why the first flight of the morning is statistically safest
- What a cancellation rate actually tells you (and what it hides)
Direction matters. DFW to ORD and ORD to DFW are scored separately because they are separate operations, with different departure banks and different aircraft. Compare the return leg.
Source: US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics, on-time performance data, June 2025 to May 2026. Updated monthly. How this data is collected.