Flight number record
AS 415
Alaska Airlines · Dallas-Fort Worth to Seattle
- Route
- DFW → SEA
- Departs
- 13:02
- Flights
- 351
- Period
- September 2025 to August 2026
Historical statistics for September 2025 to August 2026, not live status. For today’s AS 415, check with Alaska Airlines.
AS 415 earns an A. More than four flights in five arrive inside the 15-minute window the DOT uses to define an on-time arrival, which puts it 8 points better than the national rate of 77.3%. When something does go wrong the average delay runs about an hour. That rests on 351 flights, with a median arrival 7 minutes early.
Set against the rest of the country, AS 415's record is 8 points better than the US average of 77.3%. That gap is worth roughly 78 fewer late arrivals for every thousand flights.
Key figures
On time
85.1%
Arrivals under 15 minutes late, of 343 completed flights
Avg delay
60 min
Across delayed arrivals only, not all flights
Cancelled
1.99%
National rate is 1.89%
1 hour+ late
3.8%
National rate is 8.3%
These figures cover 351 flights between September 2025 and August 2026. The median arrival is 7 minutes early, which is the part an average hides: most flights here are fine, and the on-time rate is decided by a tail of badly late ones. On-time means under 15 minutes late, the DOT's own threshold.
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Schedule
When AS 415 flies
AS 415 flies DFW to SEA without a single fixed slot. Its most common scheduled departure was 13:02, used on 79 of 351 flights, with 15:12 (46 flights) and 15:27 (36 flights) next.
- Departs 13:0279 flights22.5%
- Departs 15:1246 flights13.1%
- Departs 15:2736 flights10.3%
Scale runs 0% to 100%.
Share of scheduled departures at each local time. Times used on fewer than one flight in ten are not listed.
A 13:02 departure sits in the 11am–2pm window. Across every US flight scheduled in that window the on-time rate is 78.3%, and AS 415 runs 7 points better at 85.1%. Midday slots inherit some of the morning's delays without yet carrying the full weight of the evening's.
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Against the route
AS 415 next to DFW to SEA
Every carrier on DFW to SEA combined arrived on time 71.1% of the time across 5,227 flights, so AS 415 is 14 points ahead of it. Alaska flew 1,758 flights on the same city pair under all its flight numbers, including this one, and those ran 77.2% on time. Across its whole network Alaska Airlines managed 79.7%, which this flight beats by 5 points.
| Compared with | Flights | On time | Avg delay | Cancelled | Grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AS 415thin sample | 351 | 85.1% | 60 min | 1.99% | A |
| All Alaska Airlines on DFW–SEA | 1,758 | 77.2% | 53 min | 1.19% | B |
| All carriers on DFW–SEA | 5,227 | 71.1% | 62 min | 1.78% | C |
| Alaska Airlines, whole network | 309,844 | 79.7% | 52 min | 1.20% | B |
Across the year
AS 415 quarter by quarter
AS 415 did not run the same all year. Its best quarter was Jul–Sep 2026 at 95.2% on time and its weakest Oct–Dec 2025 at 82.5%, a swing of 13 points on roughly 88 flights a quarter. The twelve-month rate averages over that, so if you are flying in a weak quarter the quarter's own figure is the better guide.
- Jul–Sep 202529 flights—
- Oct–Dec 202581 flights82.5%
- Jan–Mar 202689 flights83.7%
- Apr–Jun 202690 flights83.7%
- Jul–Sep 202662 flights95.2%
Scale runs 75% to 100%. Rows with fewer than 30 flights show a dash.
By weekday, AS 415 ranged from 80.8% on Monday to 92.2% on Wednesday. With about 50 flights behind each day, a spread of 11 points is inside normal variation, so the day you fly is not worth changing for this flight.
Arrival by arrival
How late AS 415 runs when it is late
AS 415 often beats the schedule: 99 of 343 completed flights, 29%, arrived 15 minutes or more early. The 51 late arrivals split 21 under half an hour, 17 between 30 and 60 minutes, and 13 an hour or more.
- 15+ min early99 flights28.9%
- Within 15 min193 flights56.3%
- 15–29 min late21 flights6.1%
- 30–59 min late17 flights5.0%
- 1–2 hours late7 flights2.0%
- 2+ hours late6 flights1.7%
Scale runs 0% to 100%.
Share of 343 completed flights by arrival against schedule.
A late pushback is often recovered here: of 58 departures that left 15 minutes late or more, 19 still arrived on time. 12 flights left on time and still arrived late.
The worst days
Worst days for AS 415
The latest arrival of the period was on 13 March 2026, 5 hours 54 minutes behind schedule; most of its delay minutes were filed as a late-arriving aircraft. The five worst days are spread across March, December, June, May and October, with no single month standing out.
| Date | Arrived late by | Largest filed cause |
|---|---|---|
| 13 March 2026 | 5 hours 54 minutes | Late-arriving aircraft |
| 14 December 2025 | 4 hours 47 minutes | Carrier |
| 13 June 2026 | 3 hours 58 minutes | Late-arriving aircraft |
| 24 May 2026 | 2 hours 48 minutes | Extreme weather |
| 23 October 2025 | 2 hours 13 minutes | National Airspace System |
Delay causes
Why AS 415 runs late
Carriers report a reason for every delay minute they cause, in five DOT categories. The split below is by minutes, not by number of flights, so a handful of very long weather delays weighs as much as many short ones. It covers 3,052 reported delay minutes.
- 38%Late-arriving aircraft
- 30%Carrier
- 25%National Airspace System
- 6%Extreme weather
- 1%Security
38% of delay minutes trace back to a late-arriving aircraft, meaning the plane was already behind before it got here. Across 3,052 reported delay minutes here, that single category outweighs weather by 6 to one. The split is drawn from 3,052 delay minutes reported on AS 415.
Cancellations sit at 1.99% against a national 1.89%, which is ordinary. Diversions add another 0.28%.
Connections and routes
What a delay on this flight costs
Badly late arrivals are rare here: only 3.8% land an hour or more behind schedule, against 8.3% nationally. Connections built on this flight are about as safe as US domestic connections get, though a cancelled flight still ignores every layover you give it.
At 1,660 miles this is transcontinental flying, and long routes get a quiet structural advantage. Scheduled block time on a flight this length carries more padding in absolute minutes, so a twenty-minute late departure often still becomes an on-time arrival. Read the on-time rate here as slightly flattering next to a short-haul route with the same operational quality.
Every one of the 351 flights under AS 415 in the data flew DFW to SEA. The number was not reused on any other city pair, which makes this a clean record of one route.
One caution: this is a thin sample. 351 flights over twelve months is enough to clear this site's floor but not enough to pin the rate down tightly, and a single bad week moves it by more than a point. Treat the grade as a rough reading.
What to do with this
Booking AS 415
For a booking, read AS 415 as 85.1% on time with 1.99% cancelled over 351 flights. Those are rates from the past twelve months, not a forecast for any particular day.
Related
Where to go next
- DFW to SEA, every carrier and departure
- SEA to DFW, the return direction
- Delta Air Lines 804 on the same route85.0%
- American Airlines 757 on the same route72.1%
- American Airlines 727 on the same route54.8%
- Alaska Airlines 365 on the same route78.8%
- American Airlines 767 on the same route74.4%
- American Airlines 707 on the same route82.4%
- Dallas/Fort Worth International (DFW) delay statistics
- Seattle-Tacoma International (SEA) delay statistics
- Alaska Airlines on-time record
- Every Alaska Airlines flight number with a record
- The most and least reliable flight numbers in the US
- Why the first flight of the morning is statistically safest
A flight number here means Alaska Airlines’s own number as it reports to the DOT. How the figures are computed is on the methodology page.
Source: US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics, on-time performance data, September 2025 to August 2026. Last updated ; recomputed monthly. How this data is collected.