Flight number record

AS 415

Alaska Airlines · Dallas-Fort Worth to Seattle

Route: DFW → SEA
Departs: 15:12
Flights: 349
Period: July 2025 to June 2026

Historical statistics for July 2025 to June 2026, not live status. For today’s AS 415, check with Alaska Airlines.

AS 415 lands a B, level with the national rate of 77.6%. Roughly one flight in five arrives 15 minutes late or worse, and those flights are late by about an hour on average. That is a workable record, not a spotless one. That rests on 349 flights, with a median arrival 4 minutes early.

On time

78.2%

Arrivals under 15 minutes late, of 340 completed flights

Avg delay

59 min

Across delayed arrivals only, not all flights

Cancelled

2.29%

National rate is 1.81%

1 hour+ late

5.6%

National rate is 8.1%

These figures cover 349 flights between July 2025 and June 2026. The median arrival is 4 minutes early, which is the part an average hides: most flights here are fine, and the on-time rate is decided by a tail of badly late ones. On-time means under 15 minutes late, the DOT's own threshold.

Schedule

When AS 415 flies

AS 415 flies DFW to SEA without a single fixed slot. Its most common scheduled departure was 15:12, used on 57 of 349 flights, with 15:19 (49 flights) and 15:27 (36 flights) next. Carriers retime flights through the season, so the rates here blend slightly different positions in the aircraft's day.

Departs 15:1257 flights16.3%
Departs 15:1949 flights14.0%
Departs 15:2736 flights10.3%

Scale runs 0% to 100%. Rows with fewer than 30 flights show a dash.

Share of scheduled departures at each local time. Times used on fewer than one flight in ten are not listed.

A 15:12 departure sits in the 2pm–5pm window. Across every US flight scheduled in that window the on-time rate is 72.4%, and AS 415 runs 6 points better at 78.2%. Midday slots inherit some of the morning's delays without yet carrying the full weight of the evening's.

Against the route

AS 415 next to DFW to SEA

Every carrier on DFW to SEA combined arrived on time 69.5% of the time across 5,232 flights, so AS 415 is 9 points ahead of it. Alaska flew 1,756 flights on the same city pair under all its flight numbers, including this one, and those ran 72.7% on time. Across its whole network Alaska Airlines managed 79.1%, close to this flight's figure.

AS 415 against its route and carrier
Compared with	Flights	On time	Avg delay	Cancelled	Grade
AS 415thin sample	349	78.2%	59 min	2.29%	B
All Alaska Airlines on DFW–SEA	1,756	72.7%	57 min	1.48%	C
All carriers on DFW–SEA	5,232	69.5%	64 min	2.12%	C
Alaska Airlines, whole network	293,372	79.1%	52 min	1.28%	B

Across the year

AS 415 quarter by quarter

AS 415 did not run the same all year. Its best quarter was Jan–Mar 2026 at 83.7% on time and its weakest Jul–Sep 2025 at 63.6%, a swing of 20 points on roughly 87 flights a quarter. The twelve-month rate averages over that, so if you are flying in a weak quarter the quarter's own figure is the better guide.

Jul–Sep 202589 flights63.6%
Oct–Dec 202581 flights82.5%
Jan–Mar 202689 flights83.7%
Apr–Jun 202690 flights83.7%

Scale runs 55% to 90%. Rows with fewer than 30 flights show a dash.

By weekday, AS 415 did best on Wednesday at 88.0% on time and worst on Friday at 72.3%. Each day rests on about 50 flights, so a gap of 16 points is worth noticing but could still narrow in another year.

Delay causes

Why AS 415 runs late

Carriers report a reason for every delay minute they cause, in five DOT categories. The split below is by minutes, not by number of flights, so a handful of very long weather delays weighs as much as many short ones. It covers 4,385 reported delay minutes.

Late-arriving aircraft
40%
Carrier
30%
National Airspace System
23%
Extreme weather
5%
Security
1%

40% of delay minutes trace back to a late-arriving aircraft, meaning the plane was already behind before it got here. That is a cascade, and cascades start small and grow through the day. Across 4,385 reported delay minutes here, that single category outweighs weather by 8 to one. It is the strongest argument for booking the first departure of the morning, when the aircraft has been sitting at the gate overnight with nothing to inherit. The split is drawn from 4,385 delay minutes reported on AS 415.

Cancellations sit at 2.29% against a national 1.81%, which is ordinary. Diversions add another 0.29%.

Connections and routes

What a delay on this flight costs

5.6% of arrivals land an hour or more late, close to the national 8.1%. That is the figure that decides a connection, and it says a 60 to 75 minute layover is reasonable here while anything under 45 minutes is a bet. Most delays on this route last about an hour, which a normal layover absorbs.

At 1,660 miles this is transcontinental flying, and long routes get a quiet structural advantage. Scheduled block time on a flight this length carries more padding in absolute minutes, so a twenty-minute late departure often still becomes an on-time arrival. Read the on-time rate here as slightly flattering next to a short-haul route with the same operational quality.

Every one of the 349 flights under AS 415 in the data flew DFW to SEA. The number was not reused on any other city pair, which makes this a clean record of one route.

One caution: this is a thin sample. 349 flights over twelve months is enough to clear this site's floor but not enough to pin the rate down tightly, and a single bad week moves it by more than a point. Treat the grade as a rough reading.

What to do with this

Booking AS 415

For a booking, read AS 415 as 78.2% on time with 2.29% cancelled over 349 flights. Those are rates from the past twelve months, not a forecast for any particular day.

Where to go next

A flight number here means Alaska Airlines’s own number as it reports to the DOT. How the figures are computed is on the methodology page.

Source: US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics, on-time performance data, July 2025 to June 2026. Last updated 15 September 2026; recomputed monthly. How this data is collected.

Key figures