Flight number record
AA 2829
American Airlines · New York to Phoenix
- Route
- JFK → PHX
- Departs
- 12:29
- Flights
- 362
- Period
- July 2025 to June 2026
Historical statistics for July 2025 to June 2026, not live status. For today’s AA 2829, check with American Airlines.
AA 2829 lands a B, 6 points better than the national rate of 77.6%. About one flight in six arrives 15 minutes late or worse, and those flights are late by a little over an hour on average. That is a workable record, not a spotless one. That rests on 362 flights, with a median arrival 14 minutes early.
Set against the rest of the country, AA 2829's record is 6 points better than the US average of 77.6%. That gap is worth roughly 58 fewer late arrivals for every thousand flights.
Key figures
On time
83.4%
Arrivals under 15 minutes late, of 355 completed flights
Avg delay
79 min
Across delayed arrivals only, not all flights
Cancelled
1.66%
National rate is 1.81%
1 hour+ late
4.8%
National rate is 8.1%
These figures cover 362 flights between July 2025 and June 2026. The median arrival is 14 minutes early, which is the part an average hides: most flights here are fine, and the on-time rate is decided by a tail of badly late ones. On-time means under 15 minutes late, the DOT's own threshold.
Schedule
When AA 2829 flies
AA 2829 flies JFK to PHX without a single fixed slot. Its most common scheduled departure was 12:29, used on 97 of 362 flights, with 12:59 (65 flights) and 13:30 (61 flights) next. Carriers retime flights through the season, so the rates here blend slightly different positions in the aircraft's day.
- Departs 12:2997 flights26.8%
- Departs 12:5965 flights18.0%
- Departs 13:3061 flights16.9%
Scale runs 0% to 100%. Rows with fewer than 30 flights show a dash.
Share of scheduled departures at each local time. Times used on fewer than one flight in ten are not listed.
A 12:29 departure sits in the 11am–2pm window. Across every US flight scheduled in that window the on-time rate is 78.8%, and AA 2829 runs 5 points better at 83.4%. Midday slots inherit some of the morning's delays without yet carrying the full weight of the evening's.
Against the route
AA 2829 next to JFK to PHX
Every carrier on JFK to PHX combined arrived on time 77.9% of the time across 2,972 flights, so AA 2829 is 6 points ahead of it. American flew 1,524 flights on the same city pair under all its flight numbers, including this one, and those ran 82.0% on time. Across its whole network American Airlines managed 74.4%, which this flight beats by 9 points.
| Compared with | Flights | On time | Avg delay | Cancelled | Grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AA 2829thin sample | 362 | 83.4% | 79 min | 1.66% | B |
| All American Airlines on JFK–PHX | 1,524 | 82.0% | 93 min | 2.23% | B |
| All carriers on JFK–PHX | 2,972 | 77.9% | 75 min | 2.66% | B |
| American Airlines, whole network | 986,297 | 74.4% | 85 min | 2.29% | C |
Across the year
AA 2829 quarter by quarter
AA 2829 did not run the same all year. Its best quarter was Jul–Sep 2025 at 91.2% on time and its weakest Oct–Dec 2025 at 73.9%, a swing of 17 points on roughly 91 flights a quarter. The twelve-month rate averages over that, so if you are flying in a weak quarter the quarter's own figure is the better guide.
- Jul–Sep 202592 flights91.2%
- Oct–Dec 202589 flights73.9%
- Jan–Mar 202690 flights81.2%
- Apr–Jun 202691 flights86.8%
Scale runs 65% to 95%. Rows with fewer than 30 flights show a dash.
By weekday, AA 2829 ranged from 80.0% on Sunday to 88.5% on Tuesday. With about 52 flights behind each day, a spread of 9 points is inside normal variation, so the day you fly is not worth changing for this flight.
Delay causes
Why AA 2829 runs late
One category carries most of the weight here. Late-arriving aircraft accounts for 63% of the 4,671 delay minutes carriers reported, and the remaining four split what is left. The split is by minutes rather than by flights, so a few very long delays count for as much as many short ones.
- 63%Late-arriving aircraft
- 21%Carrier
- 14%National Airspace System
- 2%Extreme weather
63% of delay minutes trace back to a late-arriving aircraft, meaning the plane was already behind before it got here. That is a cascade, and cascades start small and grow through the day. Across 4,671 reported delay minutes here, that single category outweighs weather by 35 to one. It is the strongest argument for booking the first departure of the morning, when the aircraft has been sitting at the gate overnight with nothing to inherit. The split is drawn from 4,671 delay minutes reported on AA 2829.
Cancellations sit at 1.66% against a national 1.81%, which is ordinary. Diversions add another 0.28%.
Connections and routes
What a delay on this flight costs
Badly late arrivals are rare here: only 4.8% land an hour or more behind schedule, against 8.1% nationally. Connections built on this flight are about as safe as US domestic connections get, though a cancelled flight still ignores every layover you give it.
At 2,153 miles this is transcontinental flying, and long routes get a quiet structural advantage. Scheduled block time on a flight this length carries more padding in absolute minutes, so a twenty-minute late departure often still becomes an on-time arrival. Read the on-time rate here as slightly flattering next to a short-haul route with the same operational quality.
Every one of the 362 flights under AA 2829 in the data flew JFK to PHX. The number was not reused on any other city pair, which makes this a clean record of one route.
One caution: this is a thin sample. 362 flights over twelve months is enough to clear this site's floor but not enough to pin the rate down tightly, and a single bad week moves it by more than a point. Treat the grade as a rough reading.
What to do with this
Booking AA 2829
For a booking, read AA 2829 as 83.4% on time with 1.66% cancelled over 362 flights. Those are rates from the past twelve months, not a forecast for any particular day.
Related
Where to go next
- JFK to PHX, every carrier and departure
- PHX to JFK, the return direction
- Delta Air Lines 791 on the same route82.7%
- Delta Air Lines 798 on the same route70.6%
- John F. Kennedy International (JFK) delay statistics
- Phoenix Sky Harbor International (PHX) delay statistics
- American Airlines on-time record
- Every American Airlines flight number with a record
- The most and least reliable flight numbers in the US
- Why the first flight of the morning is statistically safest
A flight number here means American Airlines’s own number as it reports to the DOT. How the figures are computed is on the methodology page.
Source: US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics, on-time performance data, July 2025 to June 2026. Last updated 15 September 2026; recomputed monthly. How this data is collected.