Carrier route record
YXTVC→ORD
Republic Airways · Traverse City to Chicago
- Flights
- 478
- Period
- July 2025 to June 2026
- Share of route
- 18%
- Carriers
- 5
Historical statistics for July 2025 to June 2026, not live status. For today’s flights, check with Republic Airways.
Republic on TVC to ORD lands a B−, 3 points better than the national rate of 77.6%. About one flight in five arrives 15 minutes late or worse, and those flights are late by an hour and a half on average. That is a workable record, not a spotless one. That rests on 478 flights. The strongest carrier on the route with a full sample, United Airlines, flew 457 at 74.0% on time.
The US average over the same twelve months is 77.6%, so there is little to separate Republic on TVC to ORD from the country as a whole. The variation that matters here is internal: which carrier, and what time of day.
Key figures
On time
80.9%
Arrivals under 15 minutes late, of 461 completed flights
Avg delay
84 min
Across delayed arrivals only, not all flights
Cancelled
3.35%
National rate is 1.81%
Whole route
69.2%
Every carrier on TVC to ORD, 2,616 flights
These figures cover 478 flights between July 2025 and June 2026. Beyond the headline rate, 8.2% of arrivals land a full hour or more behind schedule. That is the number that wrecks a connection, and it is not visible in an on-time percentage alone.
Carrier by carrier
Republic against every carrier on TVC to ORD
Republic flew 478 of the 2,616 flights on TVC to ORD, about 18% of it. Its 80.9% on time is 12 points better than the route as a whole, which runs 69.2%. Ranked by on-time rate it is number two of five carriers on the route, where the range runs from Envoy at 81.4% to PSA at 61.7%. One of those carriers flew fewer than 365 flights here, so treat their positions as rough.
The choice of carrier is not cosmetic here. United Airlines arrives on time 74.0% of the time; PSA Airlines manages 61.7%. Sample sizes sit next to every figure, because a two-point gap across 377 flights means less than a ten-point one.
| Airline | Flights | On time | Avg delay | Cancelled | Grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Envoy Airthin sample | 188 | 81.4% | 79 min | 2.66% | B |
| Republic Airways (this page) | 478 | 80.9% | 84 min | 3.35% | B− |
| United Airlines | 457 | 74.0% | 67 min | 3.06% | C− |
| SkyWest Airlines | 1,116 | 62.3% | 121 min | 5.47% | D− |
| PSA Airlines | 377 | 61.7% | 109 min | 11.41% | D− |
PSA Airlines cancels 11.4% of what it schedules here, the highest in the table. A cancelled flight never appears in an on-time rate, so read that column alongside the punctuality one rather than after it.
Departure window
When Republic runs best on this route
Departure time matters more here than the choice of carrier. The gap between the best and worst window is 18 points, against 12 points between the best and worst carrier. Each bar is the on-time rate for flights scheduled inside that window.
- 5am–8am142 flights86.1%
- 8am–11am156 flights85.7%
- 11am–2pm12 flights—
- 2pm–5pm84 flights77.1%
- 5pm–8pm68 flights67.7%
- 8pm–5am16 flights—
Scale runs 60% to 90%. Rows with fewer than 30 flights show a dash.
Book the early departure. Flights leaving between 5am–8am arrive on time 86.1% of the time, against 67.7% for the evening window. That is 18 points of difference for no extra money, and it comes from the same aircraft having had no earlier flight to fall behind on. The 8am–11am window is the busiest, with 156 flights scheduled in it.
Across the year
Republic on TVC to ORD through the year
December is the weak month at 60.4% on time, against 94.6% in June. Winter delays cluster: a single storm system can account for most of a month's shortfall, so an average December hides both very good weeks and genuinely unflyable days. May was the busiest month here, with 99 flights.
Across the week, Wednesday is the strongest day at 85.9% on time and Monday the weakest at 76.3%. 10 points is a smaller lever than departure hour, but it is free.
Delay causes
Why Republic runs late on this route
Carriers report a reason for every delay minute they cause, in five DOT categories. The split below is by minutes, not by number of flights, so a handful of very long weather delays weighs as much as many short ones. It covers 7,362 reported delay minutes.
- 37%Late-arriving aircraft
- 26%Carrier
- 22%National Airspace System
- 15%Extreme weather
Extreme weather accounts for 15% of delay minutes, well above the single-digit share typical across the system. Weather delays are lumpy: they arrive as whole bad days rather than as a steady drag, so the monthly strip above is the more useful view of the risk. The national share is 6%, so this operation carries roughly 2.3 times the usual weather exposure. The split is drawn from 7,362 reported delay minutes.
37% of delay minutes trace back to a late-arriving aircraft, meaning the plane was already behind before it got here. That is a cascade, and cascades start small and grow through the day. Across 7,362 reported delay minutes here, that single category outweighs weather by 3 to one. It is the strongest argument for booking the first departure of the morning, when the aircraft has been sitting at the gate overnight with nothing to inherit.
Cancellations run at 3.35%, against 1.81% nationally. That is about one flight in 30 cancelled outright. A cancelled flight is invisible in every on-time figure on this page, so the punctuality numbers above describe only the flights that actually operated.
Connections and stage length
What a delay here costs
8.2% of arrivals land an hour or more late, close to the national 8.1%. That is the figure that decides a connection, and it says a 60 to 75 minute layover is reasonable here while anything under 45 minutes is a bet. Most delays on this route last an hour and a half, which a normal layover absorbs.
At 224 miles this is a short hop, and stage length matters more than it looks. A flight this short spends under two hours in the air, which leaves almost nothing to claw back a late pushback with. Delay here is decided on the ground, in the turn, which is why the 5am–8am window matters as much as it does.
The return leg is a different operation and performs like one: it runs 71.1% on time across 479 flights, 10 points below this direction. Departure banks, aircraft rotations and the congestion at each end all differ, so scoring the two directions together would average away a real 10 points of difference.
One caution: this is a thin sample. 478 flights over twelve months is enough to clear this site's floor but not enough to pin the rate down tightly, and a single bad week moves it by more than a point. Treat the grade as a rough reading.
What to do with this
Booking Republic on TVC to ORD
Put together: the delay figures matter less here than the 3.35% cancellation rate. A late arrival costs you an hour and a half; a cancelled flight costs you the day. Book the 5am–8am departure so there is still a schedule behind you if it goes wrong, and treat a same-day connection as optimistic. 461 completed flights over 12 months sit behind that.
Related
Where to go next
- TVC to ORD, every carrier
- Republic on ORD to TVC, the return leg
- Envoy Air on TVC to ORD81.4%
- United Airlines on TVC to ORD74.0%
- SkyWest Airlines on TVC to ORD62.3%
- PSA Airlines on TVC to ORD61.7%
- Republic Airways network-wide record
- Chicago O'Hare International (ORD) delay statistics
- The US routes with the most cancellations
- Why the first flight of the morning is statistically safest
Source: US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics, on-time performance data, July 2025 to June 2026. Last updated 15 September 2026; recomputed monthly. How this data is collected.