Carrier route record

UASFO→MSP

United Airlines · San Francisco to Minneapolis

Flights: 301
Period: July 2025 to June 2026
Share of route: 16%
Carriers: 3

Historical statistics for July 2025 to June 2026, not live status. For today’s flights, check with United Airlines.

United on SFO to MSP lands a B+, 3 points better than the national rate of 77.6%. About one flight in five arrives 15 minutes late or worse, and those flights are late by roughly 50 minutes on average. That is a workable record, not a spotless one. That rests on 301 flights, with a median arrival 9 minutes early.

The US average over the same twelve months is 77.6%, so there is little to separate United on SFO to MSP from the country as a whole. The variation that matters here is internal: which carrier, and what time of day.

On time

81.0%

Arrivals under 15 minutes late, of 300 completed flights

Avg delay

52 min

Across delayed arrivals only, not all flights

Cancelled

0.00%

National rate is 1.81%

Whole route

82.5%

Every carrier on SFO to MSP, 1,919 flights

These figures cover 301 flights between July 2025 and June 2026. The median arrival is 9 minutes early, which is the part an average hides: most flights here are fine, and the on-time rate is decided by a tail of badly late ones. On-time means under 15 minutes late, the DOT's own threshold.

Carrier by carrier

United against every carrier on SFO to MSP

United flew 301 of the 1,919 flights on SFO to MSP, about 16% of it. Its 81.0% on time is 2 points worse than the route as a whole, which runs 82.5%. Ranked by on-time rate it is number two of three carriers on the route, where the range runs from Delta at 83.3% to SkyWest at 77.8%. One of those carriers flew fewer than 365 flights here, so treat their positions as rough.

Only one carrier clears this site's 365-flight floor here, so there is no comparison to draw. The table below is the full picture.

On-time performance by carrier on SFO to MSP
Airline	Flights	On time	Avg delay	Cancelled	Grade
Delta Air Lines	1,445	83.3%	64 min	0.97%	B+
United Airlines (this page)thin sample	301	81.0%	52 min	0.00%	B+
SkyWest Airlinesthin sample	173	77.8%	64 min	0.00%	B+

Departure window

When United runs best on this route

Departure time is the single lever a traveller controls, and it moves the odds more than most people expect. Each bar below is the on-time rate for flights scheduled to leave inside that window, across 301 flights.

5am–8am—
8am–11am192 flights80.7%
11am–2pm63 flights84.1%
2pm–5pm28 flights—
5pm–8pm18 flights—
8pm–5am—

Scale runs 70% to 90%. Rows with fewer than 30 flights show a dash.

The 11am–2pm window is the strongest at 84.1% on time. The full set of windows spans 3 points.

Across the year

United on SFO to MSP through the year

Jul–Sep 202543 flights81.4%
Oct–Dec 202572 flights88.9%
Jan–Mar 202685 flights80.0%
Apr–Jun 2026101 flights76.0%

Scale runs 70% to 95%. Rows with fewer than 30 flights show a dash.

Monthly volumes are too low here to break the year into twelve reliable readings. What the twelve-month total says is 81.0% on time across 301 flights.

United on SFO to MSP did not run the same all year. Its best quarter was Oct–Dec 2025 at 88.9% on time and its weakest Apr–Jun 2026 at 76.0%, a swing of 13 points on roughly 75 flights a quarter. The twelve-month rate averages over that, so if you are flying in a weak quarter the quarter's own figure is the better guide.

Across the week, Saturday is the strongest day at 89.2% on time and Sunday the weakest at 72.7%. 17 points is a smaller lever than departure hour, but it is free.

Delay causes

Why United runs late on this route

One category carries most of the weight here. Late-arriving aircraft accounts for 63% of the 2,956 delay minutes carriers reported, and the remaining four split what is left. The split is by minutes rather than by flights, so a few very long delays count for as much as many short ones.

Late-arriving aircraft
63%
Carrier
26%
National Airspace System
11%

63% of delay minutes trace back to a late-arriving aircraft, meaning the plane was already behind before it got here. That is a cascade, and cascades start small and grow through the day. Across 2,956 reported delay minutes here, that single category outweighs weather by 63 to one. It is the strongest argument for booking the first departure of the morning, when the aircraft has been sitting at the gate overnight with nothing to inherit. The split is drawn from 2,956 reported delay minutes.

Cancellations are rare at 0.00%, below the national 1.81% and low enough to earn the plus on the grade. Almost no flights are called off; the risk here is arriving late, not not arriving.

Connections and stage length

What a delay here costs

5.0% of arrivals land an hour or more late, close to the national 8.1%. That is the figure that decides a connection, and it says a 60 to 75 minute layover is reasonable here while anything under 45 minutes is a bet. Most delays on this route last roughly 50 minutes, which a normal layover absorbs.

At 1,589 miles this is transcontinental flying, and long routes get a quiet structural advantage. Scheduled block time on a flight this length carries more padding in absolute minutes, so a twenty-minute late departure often still becomes an on-time arrival. Read the on-time rate here as slightly flattering next to a short-haul route with the same operational quality.

The return leg is a different operation and performs like one: it runs 72.3% on time across 301 flights, 9 points below this direction. Departure banks, aircraft rotations and the congestion at each end all differ, so scoring the two directions together would average away a real 9 points of difference.

One caution: this is a thin sample. 301 flights over twelve months is enough to clear this site's floor but not enough to pin the rate down tightly, and a single bad week moves it by more than a point. Treat the grade as a rough reading.

What to do with this

Booking United on SFO to MSP

Put together: treat all of this as provisional. 301 flights over twelve months is enough to clear this site's floor and not enough to be confident to better than a couple of points. The 81.0% headline is the most reliable number on the page; the hour and month splits below it are built on a few dozen flights each. 300 completed flights over 12 months sit behind that.

Where to go next

Source: US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics, on-time performance data, July 2025 to June 2026. Last updated 15 September 2026; recomputed monthly. How this data is collected.

Key figures