Carrier route record
YXROC→ORD
Republic Airways · Rochester to Chicago
- Flights
- 711
- Period
- July 2025 to June 2026
- Share of route
- 30%
- Carriers
- 4
Historical statistics for July 2025 to June 2026, not live status. For today’s flights, check with Republic Airways.
Republic on ROC to ORD lands a B, 4 points better than the national rate of 77.6%. About one flight in five arrives 15 minutes late or worse, and those flights are late by an hour and a half on average. That is a workable record, not a spotless one. That rests on 711 flights. The strongest carrier on the route with a full sample, Envoy Air, flew 813 at 77.8% on time.
The US average over the same twelve months is 77.6%, so there is little to separate Republic on ROC to ORD from the country as a whole. The variation that matters here is internal: which carrier, and what time of day.
Key figures
On time
81.1%
Arrivals under 15 minutes late, of 694 completed flights
Avg delay
86 min
Across delayed arrivals only, not all flights
Cancelled
2.39%
National rate is 1.81%
Whole route
74.7%
Every carrier on ROC to ORD, 2,340 flights
These figures cover 711 flights between July 2025 and June 2026. Beyond the headline rate, 8.8% of arrivals land a full hour or more behind schedule. That is the number that wrecks a connection, and it is not visible in an on-time percentage alone.
Carrier by carrier
Republic against every carrier on ROC to ORD
Republic flew 711 of the 2,340 flights on ROC to ORD, about 30% of it. Its 81.1% on time is 6 points better than the route as a whole, which runs 74.7%. Ranked by on-time rate it is first of four carriers on the route, where the range runs from Republic at 81.1% to SkyWest at 62.4%. One of those carriers flew fewer than 365 flights here, so treat their positions as rough.
The choice of carrier is not cosmetic here. Envoy Air arrives on time 77.8% of the time; United Airlines manages 67.6%. Sample sizes sit next to every figure, because a two-point gap across 591 flights means less than a ten-point one.
| Airline | Flights | On time | Avg delay | Cancelled | Grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republic Airways (this page) | 711 | 81.1% | 86 min | 2.39% | B |
| Envoy Air | 813 | 77.8% | 87 min | 2.21% | B |
| United Airlines | 591 | 67.6% | 85 min | 1.35% | C |
| SkyWest Airlinesthin sample | 225 | 62.4% | 133 min | 3.11% | D− |
Envoy leads United by 10 points. Real, but small enough that a better departure time on the weaker carrier can outweigh it.
Departure window
When Republic runs best on this route
Departure time matters more here than the choice of carrier. The gap between the best and worst window is 19 points, against 10 points between the best and worst carrier. Each bar is the on-time rate for flights scheduled inside that window.
- 5am–8am164 flights85.8%
- 8am–11am58 flights87.7%
- 11am–2pm387 flights82.8%
- 2pm–5pm1 flights—
- 5pm–8pm87 flights69.1%
- 8pm–5am14 flights—
Scale runs 60% to 95%. Rows with fewer than 30 flights show a dash.
Book the morning departure. Flights leaving between 8am–11am arrive on time 87.7% of the time, against 69.1% for the evening window. That is 19 points of difference for no extra money, and it comes from the same aircraft having had no earlier flight to fall behind on. The 11am–2pm window is the busiest, with 387 flights scheduled in it.
Across the year
Republic on ROC to ORD through the year
December is the weak month at 64.8% on time, against 92.0% in May. Winter delays cluster: a single storm system can account for most of a month's shortfall, so an average December hides both very good weeks and genuinely unflyable days. November was the busiest month here, with 113 flights.
Across the week, Friday is the strongest day at 87.3% on time and Sunday the weakest at 71.9%. 15 points is a smaller lever than departure hour, but it is free.
Delay causes
Why Republic runs late on this route
Carriers report a reason for every delay minute they cause, in five DOT categories. The split below is by minutes, not by number of flights, so a handful of very long weather delays weighs as much as many short ones. It covers 11,000 reported delay minutes.
- 35%Late-arriving aircraft
- 34%National Airspace System
- 28%Carrier
- 3%Extreme weather
35% of delay minutes trace back to a late-arriving aircraft, meaning the plane was already behind before it got here. That is a cascade, and cascades start small and grow through the day. Across 11,000 reported delay minutes here, that single category outweighs weather by 12 to one. It is the strongest argument for booking the first departure of the morning, when the aircraft has been sitting at the gate overnight with nothing to inherit. The split is drawn from 11,213 reported delay minutes.
34% of delay minutes are charged to the National Airspace System: air traffic volume, runway configuration, ground stops. No carrier can price its way out of that, which is why airport choice moves the number here more than carrier choice does. That is 3,788 minutes out of 11,000, against a national NAS share of 21%.
Cancellations sit at 2.39% against a national 1.81%, which is ordinary. Diversions add another 0.00%.
Connections and stage length
What a delay here costs
8.8% of arrivals land an hour or more late, close to the national 8.1%. That is the figure that decides a connection, and it says a 60 to 75 minute layover is reasonable here while anything under 45 minutes is a bet. Most delays on this route last an hour and a half, which a normal layover absorbs.
The 528 miles between these two airports put this in the middle of the US network, around two and a half to three hours of block time. That is enough cruise to absorb a ten-minute late pushback and not enough to absorb thirty. It is also long enough that the aircraft usually flies three or four legs a day rather than six, which slows how fast delay compounds.
The return leg runs 80.2% on time across 695 flights, within about a point of this direction. The two legs are scored separately because they usually differ; on this city pair they happen not to.
One caution: this is a thin sample. 711 flights over twelve months is enough to clear this site's floor but not enough to pin the rate down tightly, and a single bad week moves it by more than a point. Treat the grade as a rough reading.
What to do with this
Booking Republic on ROC to ORD
Put together: treat all of this as provisional. 711 flights over twelve months is enough to clear this site's floor and not enough to be confident to better than a couple of points. The 81.1% headline is the most reliable number on the page; the hour and month splits below it are built on a few dozen flights each. 694 completed flights over 12 months sit behind that.
Related
Where to go next
- ROC to ORD, every carrier
- Republic on ORD to ROC, the return leg
- Envoy Air on ROC to ORD77.8%
- United Airlines on ROC to ORD67.6%
- SkyWest Airlines on ROC to ORD62.4%
- Republic Airways network-wide record
- Chicago O'Hare International (ORD) delay statistics
- Same route, different airline: where the carrier you pick matters most
- Why the first flight of the morning is statistically safest
Source: US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics, on-time performance data, July 2025 to June 2026. Last updated 15 September 2026; recomputed monthly. How this data is collected.