Carrier route record
YXORD→JFK
Republic Airways · Chicago to New York
- Flights
- 830
- Period
- September 2025 to August 2026
- Share of route
- 39%
- Carriers
- 5
Historical statistics for September 2025 to August 2026, not live status. For today’s flights, check with Republic Airways.
Republic on ORD to JFK carries a cancellation problem, not just a delay problem: 3.7% of scheduled flights never operate, against 1.9% nationally. Of the ones that do fly, close to three flights in four arrive on time, worth a B− overall. The punctuality figure counts only flights that actually departed, so it flatters an operation that cancels this often. That rests on 830 flights. The strongest carrier on the route with a full sample, JetBlue Airways, flew 633 at 78.2% on time.
The US average over the same twelve months is 77.3%, so there is little to separate Republic on ORD to JFK from the country as a whole. The variation that matters here is internal: which carrier, and what time of day.
Key figures
On time
77.5%
Arrivals under 15 minutes late, of 795 completed flights
Avg delay
75 min
Across delayed arrivals only, not all flights
Cancelled
3.73%
National rate is 1.89%
Whole route
72.5%
Every carrier on ORD to JFK, 2,135 flights
These figures cover 830 flights between September 2025 and August 2026. Beyond the headline rate, 8.7% of arrivals land a full hour or more behind schedule, against 8.3% nationally.
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Carrier by carrier
Republic against every carrier on ORD to JFK
Republic flew 830 of the 2,135 flights on ORD to JFK, about 39% of it. Its 77.5% on time is 5 points better than the route as a whole, which runs 72.5%. Ranked by on-time rate it is number three of five carriers on the route, where the range runs from Delta at 92.3% to Frontier at 59.8%. Two of those carriers flew fewer than 365 flights here, so treat their positions as rough.
The choice of carrier is not cosmetic here. JetBlue Airways arrives on time 78.2% of the time; American Airlines manages 60.5%. Sample sizes sit next to every figure, because a two-point gap across 541 flights means less than a ten-point one.
| Airline | Flights | On time | Avg delay | Cancelled | Grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Delta Air Linesthin sample | 14 | 92.3% | 221 min | 7.14% | A− |
| JetBlue Airways | 633 | 78.2% | 105 min | 7.90% | B− |
| Republic Airways (this page) | 830 | 77.5% | 75 min | 3.73% | B− |
| American Airlines | 541 | 60.5% | 98 min | 5.18% | D− |
| Frontier Airlinesthin sample | 117 | 59.8% | 100 min | 4.27% | D− |
JetBlue Airways cancels 7.9% of what it schedules here, the highest in the table. A cancelled flight never appears in an on-time rate, so read that column alongside the punctuality one rather than after it.
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Departure window
When Republic runs best on this route
Departure time matters more here than the choice of carrier. The gap between the best and worst window is 43 points, against 18 points between the best and worst carrier.
- 5am–8am278 flights86.6%
- 8am–11am190 flights80.4%
- 11am–2pm300 flights71.7%
- 2pm–5pm32 flights64.5%
- 5pm–8pm30 flights43.3%
- 8pm–5am—
Scale runs 35% to 90%. Rows with fewer than 30 flights show a dash.
The 5pm–8pm window is where this operation falls apart: 43.3% on time, against 86.6% for the 5am–8am slot. By evening the aircraft flying these rotations have absorbed a full day of small delays and there is no slack left to recover in. The 11am–2pm window is the busiest, with 300 flights scheduled in it.
Across the year
Republic on ORD to JFK through the year
December is the weak month at 67.2% on time, against 93.9% in May. Winter delays cluster: a single storm system can account for most of a month's shortfall, so an average December hides both very good weeks and genuinely unflyable days. July was the busiest month here, with 93 flights.
Across the week, Tuesday is the strongest day at 81.2% on time and Monday the weakest at 72.5%, a spread of 9 points.
Arrival by arrival
How late Republic on ORD to JFK runs when it is late
Republic on ORD to JFK often beats the schedule: 275 of 795 completed flights, 35%, arrived 15 minutes or more early. The 179 late arrivals split 56 under half an hour, 54 between 30 and 60 minutes, and 69 an hour or more.
- 15+ min early275 flights34.6%
- Within 15 min341 flights42.9%
- 15–29 min late56 flights7.0%
- 30–59 min late54 flights6.8%
- 1–2 hours late34 flights4.3%
- 2+ hours late35 flights4.4%
Scale runs 0% to 100%.
Share of 795 completed flights by arrival against schedule.
20 of 148 late departures made up the time and arrived on time, 14% of them. In the other direction, 51 flights left on time yet arrived 15 minutes late or more, so that delay built up after pushback: in the air, in a holding pattern or on the ground at JFK.
The worst days
Worst days for Republic on ORD to JFK
The latest arrival of the period was on 7 June 2026, 6 hours 2 minutes behind schedule; most of its delay minutes were filed as carrier-caused (crew, maintenance, fuelling, baggage). The five worst days are spread across June, October, July, August and September, with no single month standing out.
| Date | Arrived late by | Largest filed cause |
|---|---|---|
| 7 June 2026 | 6 hours 2 minutes | Carrier |
| 12 October 2025 | 5 hours 17 minutes | Extreme weather |
| 28 July 2026 | 5 hours 6 minutes | National Airspace System |
| 10 August 2026 | 5 hours 2 minutes | Extreme weather |
| 18 September 2025 | 4 hours 55 minutes | Late-arriving aircraft |
Delay causes
Why Republic runs late on this route
Carriers report a reason for every delay minute they cause, in five DOT categories. The split below is by minutes, not by number of flights, so a handful of very long weather delays weighs as much as many short ones. It covers 13,000 reported delay minutes.
- 39%National Airspace System
- 30%Late-arriving aircraft
- 15%Extreme weather
- 15%Carrier
- 0%Security
Extreme weather accounts for 15% of delay minutes, well above the single-digit share typical across the system. Weather delays are lumpy: they arrive as whole bad days rather than as a steady drag, so the monthly strip above is the more useful view of the risk. The national share is 6%, so this operation carries roughly 2.6 times the usual weather exposure. The split is drawn from 13,409 reported delay minutes.
39% of delay minutes are charged to the National Airspace System: air traffic volume, runway configuration, ground stops. No carrier can price its way out of that, which is why airport choice moves the number here more than carrier choice does. That is 5,195 minutes out of 13,000, against a national NAS share of 21%.
Cancellations run at 3.73%, against 1.89% nationally. That is about one flight in 25 cancelled outright. A cancelled flight is invisible in every on-time figure on this page, so the punctuality numbers above describe only the flights that actually operated.
Connections and stage length
What a delay here costs
8.7% of arrivals land an hour or more late, close to the national 8.3%, so a 60 to 75 minute layover is reasonable here while anything under 45 minutes is a bet. Most delays on this route last a little over an hour, which a normal layover absorbs.
The 740 miles between these two airports put this in the middle of the US network, around two and a half to three hours of block time. That is enough cruise to absorb a ten-minute late pushback and not enough to absorb thirty.
The return leg runs 76.3% on time across 830 flights, within about a point of this direction. The two legs are scored separately because they usually differ; on this city pair they happen not to.
One caution: this is a thin sample. 830 flights over twelve months is enough to clear this site's floor but not enough to pin the rate down tightly, and a single bad week moves it by more than a point. Treat the grade as a rough reading.
What to do with this
Booking Republic on ORD to JFK
Put together: the delay figures matter less here than the 3.73% cancellation rate. A late arrival costs you a little over an hour; a cancelled flight costs you the day. Book the 5am–8am departure so there is still a schedule behind you if it goes wrong, and treat a same-day connection as optimistic. 795 completed flights over 12 months sit behind that.
Related
Where to go next
- ORD to JFK, every carrier
- Republic on JFK to ORD, the return leg
- JetBlue Airways on ORD to JFK78.2%
- American Airlines on ORD to JFK60.5%
- Frontier Airlines on ORD to JFK59.8%
- Republic Airways network-wide record
- Chicago O'Hare International (ORD) delay statistics
- John F. Kennedy International (JFK) delay statistics
- The US routes with the most cancellations
- Same route, different airline: where the carrier you pick matters most
Source: US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics, on-time performance data, September 2025 to August 2026. Last updated ; recomputed monthly. How this data is collected.