Carrier route record

YXORD→EYW

Republic Airways · Chicago to Key West

Flights: 172
Period: July 2025 to June 2026
Share of route: 24%
Carriers: 3

Historical statistics for July 2025 to June 2026, not live status. For today’s flights, check with Republic Airways.

Republic on ORD to EYW lands a B, 2 points better than the national rate of 77.6%. About one flight in five arrives 15 minutes late or worse, and those flights are late by about 55 minutes on average. That is a workable record, not a spotless one. That rests on 172 flights, with a median arrival 7 minutes early.

The US average over the same twelve months is 77.6%, so there is little to separate Republic on ORD to EYW from the country as a whole. The variation that matters here is internal: which carrier, and what time of day.

On time

79.6%

Arrivals under 15 minutes late, of 167 completed flights

Avg delay

55 min

Across delayed arrivals only, not all flights

Cancelled

1.74%

National rate is 1.81%

Whole route

80.5%

Every carrier on ORD to EYW, 717 flights

These figures cover 172 flights between July 2025 and June 2026. The median arrival is 7 minutes early, which is the part an average hides: most flights here are fine, and the on-time rate is decided by a tail of badly late ones. On-time means under 15 minutes late, the DOT's own threshold.

Carrier by carrier

Republic against every carrier on ORD to EYW

Republic flew 172 of the 717 flights on ORD to EYW, about 24% of it. Its 79.6% on time is about level with the route as a whole at 80.5%. Ranked by on-time rate it is number two of three carriers on the route, where the range runs from Envoy at 82.0% to United at 77.2%. One of those carriers flew fewer than 365 flights here, so treat their positions as rough.

Only one carrier clears this site's 365-flight floor here, so there is no comparison to draw. The table below is the full picture.

On-time performance by carrier on ORD to EYW
Airline	Flights	On time	Avg delay	Cancelled	Grade
Envoy Air	407	82.0%	63 min	1.23%	B
Republic Airways (this page)thin sample	172	79.6%	55 min	1.74%	B
United Airlinesthin sample	138	77.2%	75 min	0.72%	B+

Departure window

When Republic runs best on this route

Departure time matters more here than the choice of carrier. The gap between the best and worst window is 21 points, against half a point between the best and worst carrier. Each bar is the on-time rate for flights scheduled inside that window.

5am–8am4 flights—
8am–11am76 flights87.8%
11am–2pm59 flights67.2%
2pm–5pm—
5pm–8pm33 flights80.6%
8pm–5am—

Scale runs 60% to 95%. Rows with fewer than 30 flights show a dash.

The weak window here is the middle of the day, not the evening: 11am–2pm runs 67.2% on time against 87.8% for 8am–11am. That shape usually means a departure bank rather than an accumulating delay, so the recovery later in the afternoon is real rather than noise. The 8am–11am window is the busiest, with 76 flights scheduled in it.

Across the year

Republic on ORD to EYW through the year

Oct–Dec 202567 flights65.2%
Jan–Mar 202638 flights83.3%
Apr–Jun 202667 flights92.3%

Scale runs 55% to 100%. Rows with fewer than 30 flights show a dash.

Monthly volumes are too low here to break the year into twelve reliable readings. What the twelve-month total says is 79.6% on time across 172 flights.

Republic on ORD to EYW did not run the same all year. Its best quarter was Apr–Jun 2026 at 92.3% on time and its weakest Oct–Dec 2025 at 65.2%, a swing of 27 points on roughly 57 flights a quarter. The twelve-month rate averages over that, so if you are flying in a weak quarter the quarter's own figure is the better guide.

Delay causes

Why Republic runs late on this route

Carriers report a reason for every delay minute they cause, in five DOT categories. The split below is by minutes, not by number of flights, so a handful of very long weather delays weighs as much as many short ones. It covers 1,858 reported delay minutes.

Carrier
37%
Late-arriving aircraft
33%
National Airspace System
31%

The largest share of delay minutes, 37%, falls under carrier control: crew scheduling, maintenance, fuelling, baggage. Unlike weather, that is a management outcome, and it is the category where the gap between two carriers on the same schedule is genuinely earned. It accounts for 681 of the 1,858 delay minutes reported here. The split is drawn from 1,858 reported delay minutes.

The practical consequence: the 8am–11am departure is the one that starts clean. Its aircraft has no earlier leg to be late from, which is exactly why that window shows 87.8% on time here.

Cancellations sit at 1.74% against a national 1.81%, which is ordinary. Diversions add another 1.16%.

Connections and stage length

What a delay here costs

5.4% of arrivals land an hour or more late, close to the national 8.1%. That is the figure that decides a connection, and it says a 60 to 75 minute layover is reasonable here while anything under 45 minutes is a bet. Most delays on this route last about 55 minutes, which a normal layover absorbs.

The 1,251 miles between these two airports put this in the middle of the US network, around two and a half to three hours of block time. That is enough cruise to absorb a ten-minute late pushback and not enough to absorb thirty. It is also long enough that the aircraft usually flies three or four legs a day rather than six, which slows how fast delay compounds.

The return leg runs 79.4% on time across 172 flights, within half a point of this direction. The two legs are scored separately because they usually differ; on this city pair they happen not to.

One caution: this is a thin sample. 172 flights over twelve months is enough to clear this site's floor but not enough to pin the rate down tightly, and a single bad week moves it by more than a point. Treat the grade as a rough reading.

What to do with this

Booking Republic on ORD to EYW

Put together: treat all of this as provisional. 172 flights over twelve months is enough to clear this site's floor and not enough to be confident to better than a couple of points. The 79.6% headline is the most reliable number on the page; the hour and month splits below it are built on a few dozen flights each. 167 completed flights over 12 months sit behind that.

Where to go next

Source: US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics, on-time performance data, July 2025 to June 2026. Last updated 15 September 2026; recomputed monthly. How this data is collected.

Key figures