Carrier route record
YXDCA→BUF
Republic Airways · Washington to Buffalo
- Flights
- 265
- Period
- September 2025 to August 2026
- Share of route
- 24%
- Carriers
- 4
Historical statistics for September 2025 to August 2026, not live status. For today’s flights, check with Republic Airways.
Republic on DCA to BUF draws a D−. About one flight in three arrives at least 15 minutes late, and the typical late arrival is about an hour behind schedule. Build slack into anything you connect to. That rests on 265 flights, with a median arrival 5 minutes late.
The national on-time rate over the same period is 77.3%, so Republic on DCA to BUF runs 13 points behind the country as a whole. Across a thousand flights that is about 126 extra late arrivals.
Key figures
On time
64.7%
Arrivals under 15 minutes late, of 255 completed flights
Avg delay
55 min
Across delayed arrivals only, not all flights
Cancelled
3.77%
National rate is 1.89%
Whole route
63.2%
Every carrier on DCA to BUF, 1,108 flights
These figures cover 265 flights between September 2025 and August 2026. Beyond the headline rate, 8.6% of arrivals land a full hour or more behind schedule, against 8.3% nationally.
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Carrier by carrier
Republic against every carrier on DCA to BUF
Republic flew 265 of the 1,108 flights on DCA to BUF, about 24% of it. Its 64.7% on time is 2 points better than the route as a whole, which runs 63.2%. Ranked by on-time rate it is number three of four carriers on the route, where the range runs from American at 83.3% to PSA at 61.8%. Two of those carriers flew fewer than 365 flights here, so treat their positions as rough.
Only one carrier clears this site's 365-flight floor here, so there is no comparison to draw. The table below is the full picture.
| Airline | Flights | On time | Avg delay | Cancelled | Grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| American Airlinesthin sample | 6 | 83.3% | 47 min | 0.00% | B+ |
| Envoy Airthin sample | 193 | 64.8% | 61 min | 5.70% | D− |
| Republic Airways (this page)thin sample | 265 | 64.7% | 55 min | 3.77% | D− |
| PSA Airlines | 644 | 61.8% | 92 min | 6.37% | D− |
Timetable by Aviasales, a Travelpayouts partner. Booking through it may earn this site a commission at no cost to you; it changes no figure here.
Departure window
When Republic runs best on this route
Departure time matters more here than the choice of carrier. The gap between the best and worst window is 30 points, against half a point between the best and worst carrier.
- 5am–8am—
- 8am–11am50 flights88.0%
- 11am–2pm4 flights—
- 2pm–5pm44 flights61.4%
- 5pm–8pm4 flights—
- 8pm–5am163 flights58.2%
Scale runs 50% to 95%. Rows with fewer than 30 flights show a dash.
The 8pm–5am window is where this operation falls apart: 58.2% on time, against 88.0% for the 8am–11am slot. By evening the aircraft flying these rotations have absorbed a full day of small delays and there is no slack left to recover in. The 8pm–5am window is the busiest, with 163 flights scheduled in it.
Across the year
Republic on DCA to BUF through the year
- Jul–Sep 202550 flights70.0%
- Oct–Dec 2025118 flights61.7%
- Jan–Mar 202636 flights57.6%
- Apr–Jun 20267 flights—
- Jul–Sep 202654 flights68.0%
Scale runs 50% to 75%. Rows with fewer than 30 flights show a dash.
Monthly volumes are too low here to break the year into twelve reliable readings. What the twelve-month total says is 64.7% on time across 265 flights.
Republic on DCA to BUF did not run the same all year. Its best quarter was Jul–Sep 2025 at 70.0% on time and its weakest Jan–Mar 2026 at 57.6%, a swing of 12 points on roughly 66 flights a quarter. The twelve-month rate averages over that, so if you are flying in a weak quarter the quarter's own figure is the better guide.
Across the week, Monday is the strongest day at 76.9% on time and Sunday the weakest at 57.9%, a spread of 19 points.
Arrival by arrival
How late Republic on DCA to BUF runs when it is late
The 90 late arrivals split 38 under half an hour, 30 between 30 and 60 minutes, and 22 an hour or more.
- 15+ min early40 flights15.7%
- Within 15 min125 flights49.0%
- 15–29 min late38 flights14.9%
- 30–59 min late30 flights11.8%
- 1–2 hours late14 flights5.5%
- 2+ hours late8 flights3.1%
Scale runs 0% to 100%.
Share of 255 completed flights by arrival against schedule.
Time lost at the gate mostly stays lost. Of 63 departures that left 15 minutes late or more, only 6 made it up before arrival. In the other direction, 33 flights left on time yet arrived 15 minutes late or more, so that delay built up after pushback: in the air, in a holding pattern or on the ground at BUF.
The worst days
Worst days for Republic on DCA to BUF
The latest arrival of the period was on 18 July 2026, 9 hours 40 minutes behind schedule; most of its delay minutes were filed as extreme weather. The five worst days are spread across July, September, November and January, with no single month standing out.
| Date | Arrived late by | Largest filed cause |
|---|---|---|
| 18 July 2026 | 9 hours 40 minutes | Extreme weather |
| 25 September 2025 | 4 hours 45 minutes | Extreme weather |
| 9 November 2025 | 4 hours 4 minutes | Late-arriving aircraft |
| 29 January 2026 | 2 hours 56 minutes | Carrier |
| 26 November 2025 | 2 hours 27 minutes | Late-arriving aircraft |
Delay causes
Why Republic runs late on this route
Late-arriving aircraft accounts for 45% of the 4,968 delay minutes carriers reported here, and the remaining four split what is left.
- 45%Late-arriving aircraft
- 24%National Airspace System
- 19%Extreme weather
- 12%Carrier
Extreme weather accounts for 19% of delay minutes, well above the single-digit share typical across the system. Weather delays are lumpy: they arrive as whole bad days rather than as a steady drag, so the monthly strip above is the more useful view of the risk. The national share is 6%, so this operation carries roughly 3.2 times the usual weather exposure. The split is drawn from 4,968 reported delay minutes.
45% of delay minutes trace back to a late-arriving aircraft, meaning the plane was already behind before it got here. Across 4,968 reported delay minutes here, that single category outweighs weather by 2 to one.
Cancellations run at 3.77%, against 1.89% nationally. That is about one flight in 25 cancelled outright. A cancelled flight is invisible in every on-time figure on this page, so the punctuality numbers above describe only the flights that actually operated.
Connections and stage length
What a delay here costs
8.6% of arrivals land an hour or more late, close to the national 8.3%, so a 60 to 75 minute layover is reasonable here while anything under 45 minutes is a bet. Most delays on this route last about an hour, which a normal layover absorbs.
At 296 miles this is a short hop, and stage length matters more than it looks. A flight this short spends under two hours in the air, which leaves almost nothing to claw back a late pushback with. Delay here is decided on the ground, in the turn, which is why the 8am–11am window matters as much as it does.
The return leg is a different operation and performs like one: it runs 75.9% on time across 265 flights, 11 points above this direction. Departure banks, aircraft rotations and the congestion at each end all differ, so scoring the two directions together would average away a real 11 points of difference.
One caution: this is a thin sample. 265 flights over twelve months is enough to clear this site's floor but not enough to pin the rate down tightly, and a single bad week moves it by more than a point. Treat the grade as a rough reading.
What to do with this
Booking Republic on DCA to BUF
Put together: the delay figures matter less here than the 3.77% cancellation rate. A late arrival costs you about an hour; a cancelled flight costs you the day. Book the 8am–11am departure so there is still a schedule behind you if it goes wrong, and treat a same-day connection as optimistic. 255 completed flights over 12 months sit behind that.
Related
Where to go next
- DCA to BUF, every carrier
- Republic on BUF to DCA, the return leg
- Envoy Air on DCA to BUF64.8%
- PSA Airlines on DCA to BUF61.8%
- Republic Airways network-wide record
- Ronald Reagan Washington National (DCA) delay statistics
- The US routes with the most cancellations
- Why the first flight of the morning is statistically safest
Source: US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics, on-time performance data, September 2025 to August 2026. Last updated ; recomputed monthly. How this data is collected.