Flight number record
YX 4781
Republic Airways · Washington to New York
- Route
- DCA → JFK
- Departs
- 17:45
- Flights
- 295
- Period
- September 2025 to August 2026
Historical statistics for September 2025 to August 2026, not live status. For today’s YX 4781, check with Republic Airways. Republic Airways flies under contract for larger airlines, so a ticket for this flight may show a different airline code and number.
YX 4781 draws a D−. Roughly one flight in three arrives at least 15 minutes late, and the typical late arrival is an hour and a half behind schedule. Build slack into anything you connect to. That rests on 295 flights, with a median arrival 5 minutes late.
The national on-time rate over the same period is 77.3%, so YX 4781 runs 16 points behind the country as a whole. Across a thousand flights that is about 163 extra late arrivals.
Key figures
On time
61.0%
Arrivals under 15 minutes late, of 277 completed flights
Avg delay
88 min
Across delayed arrivals only, not all flights
Cancelled
6.10%
National rate is 1.89%
1 hour+ late
16.2%
National rate is 8.3%
These figures cover 295 flights between September 2025 and August 2026. Beyond the headline rate, 16.2% of arrivals land a full hour or more behind schedule, against 8.3% nationally.
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Schedule
When YX 4781 flies
YX 4781 flies DCA to JFK without a single fixed slot. Its most common scheduled departure was 17:45, used on 67 of 295 flights, with 14:24 (37 flights) and 14:54 (35 flights) next.
- Departs 17:4567 flights22.7%
- Departs 14:2437 flights12.5%
- Departs 14:5435 flights11.9%
Scale runs 0% to 100%.
Share of scheduled departures at each local time. Times used on fewer than one flight in ten are not listed.
A 17:45 departure sits in the 5pm–8pm window. Across every US flight scheduled in that window the on-time rate is 68.0%, and YX 4781 runs 7 points worse at 61.0%. By that time of day most aircraft have flown several legs already, and whatever went wrong earlier is still in the schedule.
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Against the route
YX 4781 next to DCA to JFK
Every carrier on DCA to JFK combined arrived on time 77.0% of the time across 2,486 flights, so YX 4781 is 16 points behind it. Republic flew 2,041 flights on the same city pair under all its flight numbers, including this one, and those ran 76.0% on time. Across its whole network Republic Airways managed 78.1%, which this flight trails by 17 points.
| Compared with | Flights | On time | Avg delay | Cancelled | Grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| YX 4781thin sample | 295 | 61.0% | 88 min | 6.10% | D− |
| All Republic Airways on DCA–JFK | 2,041 | 76.0% | 71 min | 5.98% | B− |
| All carriers on DCA–JFK | 2,486 | 77.0% | 73 min | 5.99% | B− |
| Republic Airways, whole network | 364,452 | 78.1% | 74 min | 4.55% | B− |
Across the year
YX 4781 quarter by quarter
YX 4781 did not run the same all year. Its best quarter was Apr–Jun 2026 at 74.7% on time and its weakest Jan–Mar 2026 at 45.7%, a swing of 29 points on roughly 74 flights a quarter. The twelve-month rate averages over that, so if you are flying in a weak quarter the quarter's own figure is the better guide.
- Jul–Sep 202530 flights—
- Oct–Dec 202583 flights54.5%
- Jan–Mar 202637 flights45.7%
- Apr–Jun 202685 flights74.7%
- Jul–Sep 202660 flights58.5%
Scale runs 35% to 80%. Rows with fewer than 30 flights show a dash.
By weekday, YX 4781 did best on Wednesday at 76.2% on time and worst on Sunday at 51.3%. Each day rests on about 42 flights, so a gap of 25 points is worth noticing but could still narrow in another year.
Arrival by arrival
How late YX 4781 runs when it is late
The 108 late arrivals split 21 under half an hour, 42 between 30 and 60 minutes, and 45 an hour or more.
- 15+ min early60 flights21.7%
- Within 15 min109 flights39.4%
- 15–29 min late21 flights7.6%
- 30–59 min late42 flights15.2%
- 1–2 hours late19 flights6.9%
- 2+ hours late26 flights9.4%
Scale runs 0% to 100%.
Share of 277 completed flights by arrival against schedule.
14 of 91 late departures made up the time and arrived on time, 15% of them. In the other direction, 31 flights left on time yet arrived 15 minutes late or more, so that delay built up after pushback: in the air, in a holding pattern or on the ground at JFK.
The worst days
Worst days for YX 4781
The latest arrival of the period was on 12 October 2025, 7 hours 38 minutes behind schedule; most of its delay minutes were filed as extreme weather. The same cause led on three of the five worst days.
| Date | Arrived late by | Largest filed cause |
|---|---|---|
| 12 October 2025 | 7 hours 38 minutes | Extreme weather |
| 22 June 2026 | 7 hours 6 minutes | Extreme weather |
| 13 June 2026 | 6 hours 13 minutes | Carrier |
| 10 August 2026 | 6 hours 13 minutes | Extreme weather |
| 17 September 2025 | 5 hours 49 minutes | Late-arriving aircraft |
Delay causes
Why YX 4781 runs late
Carriers report a reason for every delay minute they cause, in five DOT categories. The split below is by minutes, not by number of flights, so a handful of very long weather delays weighs as much as many short ones. It covers 9,446 reported delay minutes.
- 37%Late-arriving aircraft
- 29%National Airspace System
- 20%Extreme weather
- 14%Carrier
Extreme weather accounts for 20% of delay minutes, well above the single-digit share typical across the system. Weather delays are lumpy: they arrive as whole bad days rather than as a steady drag, so the quarterly figures above are the more useful view of the risk. The national share is 6%, so this operation carries roughly 3.4 times the usual weather exposure. The split is drawn from 9,446 delay minutes reported on YX 4781.
Cancellations run at 6.10%, against 1.89% nationally. That is roughly one flight in fifteen cancelled outright. A cancelled flight is invisible in every on-time figure on this page, so the punctuality numbers above describe only the flights that actually operated.
Connections and routes
What a delay on this flight costs
16.2% of arrivals land a full hour or more behind schedule, against 8.3% nationally. Ninety minutes is the honest minimum for a connection here, and two hours if the onward flight is on a separate ticket.
The same number turns up on two other city pairs in the data, including ORD to BWI (53) and JFK to DCA (44), but none flew often enough under YX 4781 to report a rate for. Carriers move flight numbers between routes, so the figures on this page apply to DCA to JFK only.
One caution: this is a thin sample. 295 flights over twelve months is enough to clear this site's floor but not enough to pin the rate down tightly, and a single bad week moves it by more than a point. Treat the grade as a rough reading.
What to do with this
Booking YX 4781
For a booking, the cancellation rate is the figure to plan around on YX 4781: 6.10% of its 295 scheduled flights did not operate. A late arrival costs an hour and a half, but a cancellation costs the day, so leave a later option open.
Related
Where to go next
- DCA to JFK, every carrier and departure
- JFK to DCA, the return direction
- Republic Airways 5713 on the same route66.8%
- Ronald Reagan Washington National (DCA) delay statistics
- John F. Kennedy International (JFK) delay statistics
- Republic Airways on-time record
- Every Republic Airways flight number with a record
- The most and least reliable flight numbers in the US
- Why the first flight of the morning is statistically safest
A flight number here means Republic Airways’s own number as it reports to the DOT. How the figures are computed is on the methodology page.
Source: US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics, on-time performance data, September 2025 to August 2026. Last updated ; recomputed monthly. How this data is collected.