Flight number record

YX 4781

Republic Airways · Washington to New York

Route: DCA → JFK
Departs: 17:45
Flights: 297
Period: July 2025 to June 2026

Historical statistics for July 2025 to June 2026, not live status. For today’s YX 4781, check with Republic Airways. Republic Airways flies under contract for larger airlines, so a ticket for this flight may show a different airline code and number.

YX 4781 draws a D−. Roughly one flight in three arrives at least 15 minutes late, and the typical late arrival is an hour and a half behind schedule. Build slack into anything you connect to. That rests on 297 flights, with a median arrival 6 minutes late.

The national on-time rate over the same period is 77.6%, so YX 4781 runs 16 points behind the country as a whole. Across a thousand flights that is about 157 extra late arrivals.

On time

61.9%

Arrivals under 15 minutes late, of 281 completed flights

Avg delay

84 min

Across delayed arrivals only, not all flights

Cancelled

5.39%

National rate is 1.81%

1 hour+ late

15.3%

National rate is 8.1%

These figures cover 297 flights between July 2025 and June 2026. Beyond the headline rate, 15.3% of arrivals land a full hour or more behind schedule. That is the number that wrecks a connection, and it is not visible in an on-time percentage alone.

Schedule

When YX 4781 flies

YX 4781 flies DCA to JFK without a single fixed slot. Its most common scheduled departure was 17:45, used on 67 of 297 flights, with 14:54 (64 flights) and 14:24 (36 flights) next. Carriers retime flights through the season, so the rates here blend slightly different positions in the aircraft's day.

Departs 17:4567 flights22.6%
Departs 14:5464 flights21.5%
Departs 14:2436 flights12.1%

Scale runs 0% to 100%. Rows with fewer than 30 flights show a dash.

Share of scheduled departures at each local time. Times used on fewer than one flight in ten are not listed.

A 17:45 departure sits in the 5pm–8pm window. Across every US flight scheduled in that window the on-time rate is 68.2%, and YX 4781 runs 6 points worse at 61.9%. By that time of day most aircraft have flown several legs already, and whatever went wrong earlier is still in the schedule.

Against the route

YX 4781 next to DCA to JFK

Every carrier on DCA to JFK combined arrived on time 78.1% of the time across 2,496 flights, so YX 4781 is 16 points behind it. Republic flew 2,050 flights on the same city pair under all its flight numbers, including this one, and those ran 77.2% on time. Across its whole network Republic Airways managed 78.5%, which this flight trails by 17 points.

YX 4781 against its route and carrier
Compared with	Flights	On time	Avg delay	Cancelled	Grade
YX 4781thin sample	297	61.9%	84 min	5.39%	D−
All Republic Airways on DCA–JFK	2,050	77.2%	69 min	5.37%	B−
All carriers on DCA–JFK	2,496	78.1%	70 min	5.45%	B−
Republic Airways, whole network	361,482	78.5%	72 min	4.08%	B−

Across the year

YX 4781 quarter by quarter

YX 4781 did not run the same all year. Its best quarter was Apr–Jun 2026 at 74.7% on time and its weakest Jan–Mar 2026 at 45.7%, a swing of 29 points on roughly 74 flights a quarter. The twelve-month rate averages over that, so if you are flying in a weak quarter the quarter's own figure is the better guide.

Jul–Sep 202592 flights62.8%
Oct–Dec 202583 flights54.5%
Jan–Mar 202637 flights45.7%
Apr–Jun 202685 flights74.7%

Scale runs 35% to 80%. Rows with fewer than 30 flights show a dash.

By weekday, YX 4781 did best on Saturday at 72.5% on time and worst on Friday at 52.5%. Each day rests on about 42 flights, so a gap of 20 points is worth noticing but could still narrow in another year.

Delay causes

Why YX 4781 runs late

Carriers report a reason for every delay minute they cause, in five DOT categories. The split below is by minutes, not by number of flights, so a handful of very long weather delays weighs as much as many short ones. It covers 8,965 reported delay minutes.

Late-arriving aircraft
40%
National Airspace System
29%
Extreme weather
19%
Carrier
12%

Extreme weather accounts for 19% of delay minutes, well above the single-digit share typical across the system. Weather delays are lumpy: they arrive as whole bad days rather than as a steady drag, so the quarterly figures above are the more useful view of the risk. The national share is 6%, so this operation carries roughly 3.1 times the usual weather exposure. The split is drawn from 8,965 delay minutes reported on YX 4781.

Cancellations run at 5.39%, against 1.81% nationally. That is about one flight in twenty cancelled outright. A cancelled flight is invisible in every on-time figure on this page, so the punctuality numbers above describe only the flights that actually operated.

Connections and routes

What a delay on this flight costs

For anyone connecting, the number to weigh is not the on-time rate but the tail behind it. 15.3% of arrivals land a full hour or more behind schedule, against 8.1% nationally. A 45-minute layover does not survive that, and no amount of walking quickly changes it. Ninety minutes is the honest minimum here, and two hours if the onward flight is on a separate ticket.

The same number turns up on two other city pairs in the data, including ORD to BWI (53) and JFK to DCA (44), but none flew often enough under YX 4781 to report a rate for. Carriers move flight numbers between routes, so the figures on this page apply to DCA to JFK only.

One caution: this is a thin sample. 297 flights over twelve months is enough to clear this site's floor but not enough to pin the rate down tightly, and a single bad week moves it by more than a point. Treat the grade as a rough reading.

What to do with this

Booking YX 4781

For a booking, the cancellation rate is the figure to plan around on YX 4781: 5.39% of its 297 scheduled flights did not operate. A late arrival costs an hour and a half, but a cancellation costs the day, so leave a later option open.

Where to go next

A flight number here means Republic Airways’s own number as it reports to the DOT. How the figures are computed is on the methodology page.

Source: US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics, on-time performance data, July 2025 to June 2026. Last updated 15 September 2026; recomputed monthly. How this data is collected.

Key figures