Flight number record
AA 2806
American Airlines · Dallas-Fort Worth to Minneapolis
- Route
- DFW → MSP
- Departs
- 21:15
- Flights
- 286
- Period
- July 2025 to June 2026
Historical statistics for July 2025 to June 2026, not live status. For today’s AA 2806, check with American Airlines.
AA 2806 draws a D−. Roughly one flight in two arrives at least 15 minutes late, and the typical late arrival is about an hour behind schedule. Build slack into anything you connect to. That rests on 286 flights, with a median arrival 8 minutes late.
The national on-time rate over the same period is 77.6%, so AA 2806 runs 19 points behind the country as a whole. Across a thousand flights that is about 189 extra late arrivals.
Key figures
On time
58.7%
Arrivals under 15 minutes late, of 271 completed flights
Avg delay
62 min
Across delayed arrivals only, not all flights
Cancelled
5.24%
National rate is 1.81%
1 hour+ late
13.3%
National rate is 8.1%
These figures cover 286 flights between July 2025 and June 2026. Beyond the headline rate, 13.3% of arrivals land a full hour or more behind schedule. That is the number that wrecks a connection, and it is not visible in an on-time percentage alone.
Schedule
When AA 2806 flies
AA 2806 flies DFW to MSP without a single fixed slot. Its most common scheduled departure was 21:15, used on 74 of 286 flights, with 18:51 (41 flights) and 18:39 (31 flights) next. Carriers retime flights through the season, so the rates here blend slightly different positions in the aircraft's day.
- Departs 21:1574 flights25.9%
- Departs 18:5141 flights14.3%
- Departs 18:3931 flights10.8%
Scale runs 0% to 100%. Rows with fewer than 30 flights show a dash.
Share of scheduled departures at each local time. Times used on fewer than one flight in ten are not listed.
A 21:15 departure sits in the 8pm–5am window. Across every US flight scheduled in that window the on-time rate is 70.5%, and AA 2806 runs 12 points worse at 58.7%. By that time of day most aircraft have flown several legs already, and whatever went wrong earlier is still in the schedule.
Against the route
AA 2806 next to DFW to MSP
Every carrier on DFW to MSP combined arrived on time 73.9% of the time across 3,259 flights, so AA 2806 is 15 points behind it. American flew 1,616 flights on the same city pair under all its flight numbers, including this one, and those ran 66.2% on time. Across its whole network American Airlines managed 74.4%, which this flight trails by 16 points.
| Compared with | Flights | On time | Avg delay | Cancelled | Grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AA 2806thin sample | 286 | 58.7% | 62 min | 5.24% | D− |
| All American Airlines on DFW–MSP | 1,616 | 66.2% | 67 min | 3.40% | C− |
| All carriers on DFW–MSP | 3,259 | 73.9% | 75 min | 2.39% | C |
| American Airlines, whole network | 986,297 | 74.4% | 85 min | 2.29% | C |
Across the year
AA 2806 quarter by quarter
AA 2806 did not run the same all year. Its best quarter was Jul–Sep 2025 at 64.8% on time and its weakest Apr–Jun 2026 at 51.1%, a swing of 14 points on roughly 72 flights a quarter. The twelve-month rate averages over that, so if you are flying in a weak quarter the quarter's own figure is the better guide.
- Jul–Sep 202573 flights64.8%
- Oct–Dec 202577 flights56.2%
- Jan–Mar 202689 flights59.8%
- Apr–Jun 202647 flights51.1%
Scale runs 45% to 70%. Rows with fewer than 30 flights show a dash.
By weekday, AA 2806 did best on Tuesday at 77.1% on time and worst on Thursday at 46.5%. Each day rests on about 41 flights, so a gap of 31 points is worth noticing but could still narrow in another year.
Delay causes
Why AA 2806 runs late
One category carries most of the weight here. Late-arriving aircraft accounts for 53% of the 6,912 delay minutes carriers reported, and the remaining four split what is left. The split is by minutes rather than by flights, so a few very long delays count for as much as many short ones.
- 53%Late-arriving aircraft
- 32%Carrier
- 10%National Airspace System
- 5%Extreme weather
53% of delay minutes trace back to a late-arriving aircraft, meaning the plane was already behind before it got here. That is a cascade, and cascades start small and grow through the day. Across 6,912 reported delay minutes here, that single category outweighs weather by 10 to one. It is the strongest argument for booking the first departure of the morning, when the aircraft has been sitting at the gate overnight with nothing to inherit. The split is drawn from 6,912 delay minutes reported on AA 2806.
Cancellations run at 5.24%, against 1.81% nationally. That is about one flight in twenty cancelled outright. A cancelled flight is invisible in every on-time figure on this page, so the punctuality numbers above describe only the flights that actually operated.
Connections and routes
What a delay on this flight costs
For anyone connecting, the number to weigh is not the on-time rate but the tail behind it. 13.3% of arrivals land a full hour or more behind schedule, against 8.1% nationally. A 45-minute layover does not survive that, and no amount of walking quickly changes it. Ninety minutes is the honest minimum here, and two hours if the onward flight is on a separate ticket.
The 852 miles between these two airports put this in the middle of the US network, around two and a half to three hours of block time. That is enough cruise to absorb a ten-minute late pushback and not enough to absorb thirty. It is also long enough that the aircraft usually flies three or four legs a day rather than six, which slows how fast delay compounds.
The same number turns up on three other city pairs in the data, including BDL to MIA (31), MIA to BDL (24) and MYR to CLT (9), but none flew often enough under AA 2806 to report a rate for. Carriers move flight numbers between routes, so the figures on this page apply to DFW to MSP only.
One caution: this is a thin sample. 286 flights over twelve months is enough to clear this site's floor but not enough to pin the rate down tightly, and a single bad week moves it by more than a point. Treat the grade as a rough reading.
What to do with this
Booking AA 2806
For a booking, the cancellation rate is the figure to plan around on AA 2806: 5.24% of its 286 scheduled flights did not operate. A late arrival costs about an hour, but a cancellation costs the day, so leave a later option open.
Related
Where to go next
- DFW to MSP, every carrier and departure
- MSP to DFW, the return direction
- Delta Air Lines 1276 on the same route89.9%
- Delta Air Lines 2972 on the same route83.5%
- Dallas/Fort Worth International (DFW) delay statistics
- Minneapolis-St Paul International (MSP) delay statistics
- American Airlines on-time record
- Every American Airlines flight number with a record
- The most and least reliable flight numbers in the US
- Why the first flight of the morning is statistically safest
A flight number here means American Airlines’s own number as it reports to the DOT. How the figures are computed is on the methodology page.
Source: US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics, on-time performance data, July 2025 to June 2026. Last updated 15 September 2026; recomputed monthly. How this data is collected.