Carrier route record
YXORD→ROA
Republic Airways · Chicago to Roanoke
- Flights
- 291
- Period
- July 2025 to June 2026
- Share of route
- 34%
- Carriers
- 2
Historical statistics for July 2025 to June 2026, not live status. For today’s flights, check with Republic Airways.
Republic on ORD to ROA sits in the middle of the pack with a C−. About seven flights in ten arrive on time by the DOT's definition, 6 points worse than the national rate of 77.6%. The late ones land a little over an hour behind schedule. That rests on 291 flights, with a median arrival 3 minutes early.
The national on-time rate over the same period is 77.6%, so Republic on ORD to ROA runs 6 points behind the country as a whole. Across a thousand flights that is about 55 extra late arrivals.
Key figures
On time
72.1%
Arrivals under 15 minutes late, of 272 completed flights
Avg delay
71 min
Across delayed arrivals only, not all flights
Cancelled
5.50%
National rate is 1.81%
Whole route
69.5%
Every carrier on ORD to ROA, 848 flights
These figures cover 291 flights between July 2025 and June 2026. Beyond the headline rate, 9.6% of arrivals land a full hour or more behind schedule. That is the number that wrecks a connection, and it is not visible in an on-time percentage alone.
Carrier by carrier
Republic against every carrier on ORD to ROA
Republic flew 291 of the 848 flights on ORD to ROA, about 34% of it. Its 72.1% on time is 3 points better than the route as a whole, which runs 69.5%. Ranked by on-time rate it is first of two carriers on the route, where the range runs from Republic at 72.1% to SkyWest at 68.3%.
Only one carrier clears this site's 365-flight floor here, so there is no comparison to draw. The table below is the full picture.
| Airline | Flights | On time | Avg delay | Cancelled | Grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republic Airways (this page)thin sample | 291 | 72.1% | 71 min | 5.50% | C− |
| SkyWest Airlines | 557 | 68.3% | 66 min | 2.15% | C |
Departure window
When Republic runs best on this route
Departure time matters more here than the choice of carrier. The gap between the best and worst window is 17 points, against half a point between the best and worst carrier. Each bar is the on-time rate for flights scheduled inside that window.
- 5am–8am—
- 8am–11am—
- 11am–2pm1 flights—
- 2pm–5pm3 flights—
- 5pm–8pm45 flights85.7%
- 8pm–5am242 flights69.0%
Scale runs 60% to 90%. Rows with fewer than 30 flights show a dash.
The 5pm–8pm window is the strongest at 85.7% on time. The full set of windows spans 17 points.
Across the year
Republic on ORD to ROA through the year
- Jul–Sep 202556 flights84.9%
- Oct–Dec 202592 flights64.0%
- Jan–Mar 202652 flights69.4%
- Apr–Jun 202691 flights73.8%
Scale runs 55% to 90%. Rows with fewer than 30 flights show a dash.
Monthly volumes are too low here to break the year into twelve reliable readings. What the twelve-month total says is 72.1% on time across 291 flights.
Republic on ORD to ROA did not run the same all year. Its best quarter was Jul–Sep 2025 at 84.9% on time and its weakest Oct–Dec 2025 at 64.0%, a swing of 21 points on roughly 73 flights a quarter. The twelve-month rate averages over that, so if you are flying in a weak quarter the quarter's own figure is the better guide.
Across the week, Tuesday is the strongest day at 84.2% on time and Thursday the weakest at 56.4%. 28 points is a smaller lever than departure hour, but it is free.
Delay causes
Why Republic runs late on this route
One category carries most of the weight here. Late-arriving aircraft accounts for 61% of the 5,414 delay minutes carriers reported, and the remaining four split what is left. The split is by minutes rather than by flights, so a few very long delays count for as much as many short ones.
- 61%Late-arriving aircraft
- 20%National Airspace System
- 16%Carrier
- 3%Extreme weather
61% of delay minutes trace back to a late-arriving aircraft, meaning the plane was already behind before it got here. That is a cascade, and cascades start small and grow through the day. Across 5,414 reported delay minutes here, that single category outweighs weather by 18 to one. It is the strongest argument for booking the first departure of the morning, when the aircraft has been sitting at the gate overnight with nothing to inherit. The split is drawn from 5,414 reported delay minutes.
Cancellations run at 5.50%, against 1.81% nationally. That is roughly one flight in twenty cancelled outright. A cancelled flight is invisible in every on-time figure on this page, so the punctuality numbers above describe only the flights that actually operated.
Connections and stage length
What a delay here costs
For anyone connecting, the number to weigh is not the on-time rate but the tail behind it. 9.6% of arrivals land a full hour or more behind schedule, against 8.1% nationally. A 45-minute layover does not survive that, and no amount of walking quickly changes it. Ninety minutes is the honest minimum here, and two hours if the onward flight is on a separate ticket.
The 530 miles between these two airports put this in the middle of the US network, around two and a half to three hours of block time. That is enough cruise to absorb a ten-minute late pushback and not enough to absorb thirty. It is also long enough that the aircraft usually flies three or four legs a day rather than six, which slows how fast delay compounds.
The return leg is a different operation and performs like one: it runs 78.5% on time across 290 flights, 6 points above this direction. Departure banks, aircraft rotations and the congestion at each end all differ, so scoring the two directions together would average away a real 6 points of difference.
One caution: this is a thin sample. 291 flights over twelve months is enough to clear this site's floor but not enough to pin the rate down tightly, and a single bad week moves it by more than a point. Treat the grade as a rough reading.
What to do with this
Booking Republic on ORD to ROA
Put together: the delay figures matter less here than the 5.50% cancellation rate. A late arrival costs you a little over an hour; a cancelled flight costs you the day. Book the 5pm–8pm departure so there is still a schedule behind you if it goes wrong, and treat a same-day connection as optimistic. 272 completed flights over 12 months sit behind that.
Related
Where to go next
Source: US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics, on-time performance data, July 2025 to June 2026. Last updated 15 September 2026; recomputed monthly. How this data is collected.