Route reliability record
MSP→TPA
Minneapolis to Tampa
- Flights
- 1,167
- Period
- September 2025 to August 2026
- Distance
- 1,306 mi
- Carriers
- 1
This route lands a B, 3 points better than the national rate of 77.3%. About one flight in five arrives 15 minutes late or worse, and those flights are late by about an hour on average. That rests on 1,167 MSP to TPA flights, with a median arrival 7 minutes early.
Best time to fly MSP to TPA: a 5am–8am departure, ideally on a Tuesday. Flights in that window arrived on time 88.5% of the time and Tuesday flights 86.2%, against 80.1% for the route overall.
The US average over the same twelve months is 77.3%, so there is little to separate this route from the country as a whole. The variation that matters here is internal: which carrier, and what time of day.
Key figures
On time
80.1%
Arrivals under 15 minutes late, of 1,150 completed flights
Avg delay
66 min
Across delayed arrivals only, not all flights
Cancelled
1.03%
National rate is 1.89%
Best carrier
Delta
80.1% on time across 1,167 flights
These figures cover 1,167 flights between September 2025 and August 2026. The median arrival is 7 minutes early, which is the part an average hides: most flights here are fine, and the on-time rate is decided by a tail of badly late ones. On-time means under 15 minutes late, the DOT's own threshold.
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Carrier by carrier
Which airline is most reliable on MSP to TPA
Only one carrier clears this site's 365-flight floor here, so there is no comparison to draw. The table below is the full picture.
| Airline | Flights | On time | Avg delay | Cancelled | Grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Delta Air Lines | 1,167 | 80.1% | 66 min | 1.03% | B |
Flight by flight
Flights on MSP to TPA
The flight numbers below flew this route at least 250 times in the period, busiest first. Each has its own record, with its schedule and delay causes.
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Departure window
The best time of day to leave
Departure time matters more here than the choice of carrier. The gap between the best and worst window is 17 points, against half a point between the best and worst carrier.
- 5am–8am326 flights88.5%
- 8am–11am200 flights78.1%
- 11am–2pm280 flights82.1%
- 2pm–5pm27 flights—
- 5pm–8pm334 flights71.6%
- 8pm–5am—
Scale runs 65% to 95%. Rows with fewer than 30 flights show a dash.
Book the early departure. Flights leaving between 5am–8am arrive on time 88.5% of the time, against 71.6% for the evening window. That is 17 points of difference for no extra money, and it comes from the same aircraft having had no earlier flight to fall behind on. The 5pm–8pm window is the busiest, with 334 flights scheduled in it.
Explore
Filter MSP to TPA by airline, time, month and day
Pick a breakdown and a carrier. The dashed mark on each row is the same slice for every US flight.
On MSP to TPA, the best departure window is 5am–8am at 88.5% on time and the worst is 5pm–8pm at 71.6%, a wide gap of 16.9 points. All US flights leaving 5am–8am ran 89.3%.
- 5–8am88.5%
- 8–11am78.1%
- 11am–2pm82.1%
- 2–5pm—
- 5–8pm71.6%
- 8pm–5am—
best all US flightsScale 60% to 95%. Cells under 30 flights show a dash.
Across the year
When delays peak on this route
This route's year swings by 24 points from best month to worst, which is wide. An annual average tells you very little about the week you are actually flying, so read the strip rather than the headline if your dates are fixed.
December is the weak month at 67.4% on time, against 91.7% in April. Winter delays cluster: a single storm system can account for most of a month's shortfall, so an average December hides both very good weeks and genuinely unflyable days. April was the busiest month here, with 120 flights.
Across the week, Tuesday is the strongest day at 86.2% on time and Sunday the weakest at 74.1%, a spread of 12 points.
Delay causes
Why this route gets delayed
Carrier accounts for 62% of the 15,000 delay minutes carriers reported here, and the remaining four split what is left.
- 62%Carrier
- 23%National Airspace System
- 13%Late-arriving aircraft
- 2%Extreme weather
- 0%Security
The largest share of delay minutes, 62%, falls under carrier control: crew scheduling, maintenance, fuelling, baggage. It accounts for 9,340 of the 15,000 delay minutes reported here. The split is drawn from 15,142 reported delay minutes.
Cancellations sit at 1.03% against a national 1.89%, which is ordinary. Diversions add another 0.43%.
Connections and stage length
What a delay here actually costs
6.4% of arrivals land an hour or more late, close to the national 8.3%, so a 60 to 75 minute layover is reasonable here while anything under 45 minutes is a bet. Most delays on this route last about an hour, which a normal layover absorbs.
The 1,306 miles between these two airports put this in the middle of the US network, around two and a half to three hours of block time. That is enough cruise to absorb a ten-minute late pushback and not enough to absorb thirty.
The return leg runs 81.9% on time across 1,168 flights, within 2 points of this direction. The two legs are scored separately because they usually differ; on this city pair they happen not to.
The sample behind these figures is 1,167 flights, enough that the headline rate is stable to within roughly a point. The hour-block and month splits divide that further, so read the thinner bars with more caution than the headline.
Work out the risk of missing a connection in TPA after this flight
What to do with this
Booking this route
Put together: the calendar is the biggest lever here, not the carrier or the hour. April runs 91.7% on time and December 67.4%, a swing of 24 points. If the dates move at all, move them out of December before you think about anything else. 1,150 completed flights over 12 months sit behind that.
Common questions
MSP to TPA questions
How often is MSP to TPA delayed?
About one flight in five arrives at least 15 minutes late, which is the Department of Transportation's definition of a delayed arrival. That works out to 19.9% of the 1,167 flights in this analysis, against 22.7% nationally. Delayed flights are late by about an hour on average.
How reliable is MSP to TPA compared with the rest of the country?
80.1% of flights arrive on time here against a national 77.3%, a difference of 3 points in its favour. That is worth a B on this site's grading scale.
What time of day has the fewest delays on MSP to TPA?
The 5am–8am departure window is the strongest at 88.5% on time. The 5pm–8pm window is the weakest at 71.6%, 17 points behind. Later departures inherit delays from earlier flights the same aircraft has already flown, which is why the curve slopes the way it does.
How bad are December delays on MSP to TPA?
December is the weakest month at 67.4% on time, compared with 91.7% in April. Across the year that is 24 points between the best and worst months. Moving flexible dates out of that month is one of the few things that reliably helps.
Related
Where to go next
- TPA to MSP — the return legseparate record
- Minneapolis-St Paul International (MSP) delay statistics
- Tampa International (TPA) delay statistics
- MSP to ORD, a related route70.0%
- ATL to TPA, a related route73.0%
- MSP to DEN, a related route77.8%
- Delta Air Lines on-time record80.1%
- The best time of day to fly, according to 7.05 million flight records
- Worst months to fly in the US, ranked by the data
Direction matters. MSP to TPA and TPA to MSP are scored separately because they are separate operations, with different departure banks and different aircraft. Compare the return leg.
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Source: US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics, on-time performance data, September 2025 to August 2026. Last updated ; recomputed monthly. How this data is collected.