Carrier route record

F9MCO→MKE

Frontier Airlines · Orlando to Milwaukee

Flights: 162
Period: July 2025 to June 2026
Share of route: 12%
Carriers: 3

Historical statistics for July 2025 to June 2026, not live status. For today’s flights, check with Frontier Airlines.

Frontier on MCO to MKE lands a B, 4 points better than the national rate of 77.6%. Roughly one flight in five arrives 15 minutes late or worse, and those flights are late by about an hour on average. That is a workable record, not a spotless one. That rests on 162 flights, with a median arrival 17 minutes early.

Set against the rest of the country, Frontier's MCO to MKE record is 4 points better than the US average of 77.6%. That gap is worth roughly 42 fewer late arrivals for every thousand flights.

On time

81.8%

Arrivals under 15 minutes late, of 159 completed flights

Avg delay

58 min

Across delayed arrivals only, not all flights

Cancelled

1.85%

National rate is 1.81%

Whole route

70.9%

Every carrier on MCO to MKE, 1,408 flights

These figures cover 162 flights between July 2025 and June 2026. The median arrival is 17 minutes early, which is the part an average hides: most flights here are fine, and the on-time rate is decided by a tail of badly late ones. On-time means under 15 minutes late, the DOT's own threshold.

Carrier by carrier

Frontier against every carrier on MCO to MKE

Frontier flew 162 of the 1,408 flights on MCO to MKE, about 12% of it. Its 81.8% on time is 11 points better than the route as a whole, which runs 70.9%. Ranked by on-time rate it is first of three carriers on the route, where the range runs from Frontier at 81.8% to Southwest at 68.9%. One of those carriers flew fewer than 365 flights here, so treat their positions as rough.

Only one carrier clears this site's 365-flight floor here, so there is no comparison to draw. The table below is the full picture.

On-time performance by carrier on MCO to MKE
Airline	Flights	On time	Avg delay	Cancelled	Grade
Frontier Airlines (this page)thin sample	162	81.8%	58 min	1.85%	B
Spirit Airlinesthin sample	117	76.1%	82 min	3.42%	B−
Southwest Airlines	1,129	68.9%	51 min	0.89%	C+

Departure window

When Frontier runs best on this route

Departure time matters more here than the choice of carrier. The gap between the best and worst window is 24 points, against half a point between the best and worst carrier. Each bar is the on-time rate for flights scheduled inside that window.

5am–8am39 flights100.0%
8am–11am26 flights—
11am–2pm9 flights—
2pm–5pm62 flights75.8%
5pm–8pm26 flights—
8pm–5am—

Scale runs 65% to 100%. Rows with fewer than 30 flights show a dash.

Book the early departure. Flights leaving between 5am–8am arrive on time 100.0% of the time, against 75.8% for the afternoon window. That is 24 points of difference for no extra money, and it comes from the same aircraft having had no earlier flight to fall behind on. The 2pm–5pm window is the busiest, with 62 flights scheduled in it.

Across the year

Frontier on MCO to MKE through the year

Oct–Dec 202517 flights—
Jan–Mar 2026105 flights79.4%
Apr–Jun 202640 flights97.5%

Scale runs 70% to 100%. Rows with fewer than 30 flights show a dash.

Monthly volumes are too low here to break the year into twelve reliable readings. What the twelve-month total says is 81.8% on time across 162 flights.

Split by quarter, Frontier on MCO to MKE logged 17 flights in Oct–Dec 2025, 105 flights in Jan–Mar 2026 and 40 flights in Apr–Jun 2026. Fewer than three of those quarters carried the 30 completed flights this site needs before printing a rate, so the 81.8% annual figure is the one to use.

Delay causes

Why Frontier runs late on this route

Carriers report a reason for every delay minute they cause, in five DOT categories. The split below is by minutes, not by number of flights, so a handful of very long weather delays weighs as much as many short ones. It covers 1,690 reported delay minutes.

Carrier
40%
Late-arriving aircraft
35%
National Airspace System
25%

35% of delay minutes trace back to a late-arriving aircraft, meaning the plane was already behind before it got here. That is a cascade, and cascades start small and grow through the day. Across 1,690 reported delay minutes here, that single category outweighs weather by 35 to one. It is the strongest argument for booking the first departure of the morning, when the aircraft has been sitting at the gate overnight with nothing to inherit. The split is drawn from 1,690 reported delay minutes.

The largest share of delay minutes, 40%, falls under carrier control: crew scheduling, maintenance, fuelling, baggage. Unlike weather, that is a management outcome, and it is the category where the gap between two carriers on the same schedule is genuinely earned. It accounts for 671 of the 1,690 delay minutes reported here.

Cancellations sit at 1.85% against a national 1.81%, which is ordinary. Diversions add another 0.00%.

Connections and stage length

What a delay here costs

6.9% of arrivals land an hour or more late, close to the national 8.1%. That is the figure that decides a connection, and it says a 60 to 75 minute layover is reasonable here while anything under 45 minutes is a bet. Most delays on this route last about an hour, which a normal layover absorbs.

The 1,066 miles between these two airports put this in the middle of the US network, around two and a half to three hours of block time. That is enough cruise to absorb a ten-minute late pushback and not enough to absorb thirty. It is also long enough that the aircraft usually flies three or four legs a day rather than six, which slows how fast delay compounds.

The return leg is a different operation and performs like one: it runs 76.6% on time across 162 flights, 5 points below this direction. Departure banks, aircraft rotations and the congestion at each end all differ, so scoring the two directions together would average away a real 5 points of difference.

One caution: this is a thin sample. 162 flights over twelve months is enough to clear this site's floor but not enough to pin the rate down tightly, and a single bad week moves it by more than a point. Treat the grade as a rough reading.

What to do with this

Booking Frontier on MCO to MKE

Put together: treat all of this as provisional. 162 flights over twelve months is enough to clear this site's floor and not enough to be confident to better than a couple of points. The 81.8% headline is the most reliable number on the page; the hour and month splits below it are built on a few dozen flights each. 159 completed flights over 12 months sit behind that.

Where to go next

Source: US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics, on-time performance data, July 2025 to June 2026. Last updated 15 September 2026; recomputed monthly. How this data is collected.

Key figures