Carrier route record
ASFAT→SEA
Alaska Airlines · Fresno to Seattle
- Flights
- 417
- Period
- September 2025 to August 2026
- Share of route
- 47%
- Carriers
- 2
Historical statistics for September 2025 to August 2026, not live status. For today’s flights, check with Alaska Airlines.
Alaska on FAT to SEA lands a B+, 6 points better than the national rate of 77.3%. About one flight in six arrives 15 minutes late or worse, and those flights are late by about an hour on average. That rests on 417 flights, with a median arrival 8 minutes early.
Set against the rest of the country, Alaska's FAT to SEA record is 6 points better than the US average of 77.3%. That gap is worth roughly 55 fewer late arrivals for every thousand flights.
Key figures
On time
82.8%
Arrivals under 15 minutes late, of 413 completed flights
Avg delay
57 min
Across delayed arrivals only, not all flights
Cancelled
0.96%
National rate is 1.89%
Whole route
82.7%
Every carrier on FAT to SEA, 882 flights
These figures cover 417 flights between September 2025 and August 2026. The median arrival is 8 minutes early, which is the part an average hides: most flights here are fine, and the on-time rate is decided by a tail of badly late ones. On-time means under 15 minutes late, the DOT's own threshold.
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Carrier by carrier
Alaska against every carrier on FAT to SEA
Alaska flew 417 of the 882 flights on FAT to SEA, about 47% of it. Its 82.8% on time is about level with the route as a whole at 82.7%. Ranked by on-time rate it is first of two carriers on the route, where the range runs from Alaska at 82.8% to SkyWest at 82.7%.
Only one carrier clears this site's 365-flight floor here, so there is no comparison to draw. The table below is the full picture.
| Airline | Flights | On time | Avg delay | Cancelled | Grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alaska Airlines (this page) | 417 | 82.8% | 57 min | 0.96% | B+ |
| SkyWest Airlines | 465 | 82.7% | 56 min | 0.43% | B+ |
Timetable by Aviasales, a Travelpayouts partner. Booking through it may earn this site a commission at no cost to you; it changes no figure here.
Departure window
When Alaska runs best on this route
Departure time is the single lever a traveller controls, and it moves the odds more than most people expect. Each bar below is the on-time rate for flights scheduled to leave inside that window, across 417 flights.
- 5am–8am—
- 8am–11am—
- 11am–2pm78 flights85.9%
- 2pm–5pm223 flights84.5%
- 5pm–8pm28 flights—
- 8pm–5am88 flights78.4%
Scale runs 70% to 90%. Rows with fewer than 30 flights show a dash.
The best window here is not the first bank but the 11am–2pm slot at 85.9% on time, ahead of 8pm–5am at 78.4%. Where the curve peaks mid-day rather than at dawn, the constraint is usually congestion at one end rather than the aircraft's own rotation. The 2pm–5pm window is the busiest, with 223 flights scheduled in it.
Across the year
Alaska on FAT to SEA through the year
- Jul–Sep 202517 flights—
- Oct–Dec 202590 flights85.1%
- Jan–Mar 202680 flights84.8%
- Apr–Jun 2026134 flights82.8%
- Jul–Sep 202696 flights80.2%
Scale runs 70% to 90%. Rows with fewer than 30 flights show a dash.
Monthly volumes are too low here to break the year into twelve reliable readings. What the twelve-month total says is 82.8% on time across 417 flights.
Quarter by quarter Alaska on FAT to SEA held fairly steady: 85.1% in Oct–Dec 2025, 84.8% in Jan–Mar 2026, 82.8% in Apr–Jun 2026 and 80.2% in Jul–Sep 2026. A spread of 5 points is about what a sample of this size moves on its own, so the annual figure is a fair summary.
Across the week, Saturday is the strongest day at 92.5% on time and Thursday the weakest at 73.4%, a spread of 19 points.
Arrival by arrival
How late Alaska on FAT to SEA runs when it is late
Alaska on FAT to SEA often beats the schedule: 139 of 413 completed flights, 34%, arrived 15 minutes or more early. The 71 late arrivals split 24 under half an hour, 23 between 30 and 60 minutes, and 24 an hour or more.
- 15+ min early139 flights33.7%
- Within 15 min203 flights49.2%
- 15–29 min late24 flights5.8%
- 30–59 min late23 flights5.6%
- 1–2 hours late17 flights4.1%
- 2+ hours late7 flights1.7%
Scale runs 0% to 100%.
Share of 413 completed flights by arrival against schedule.
A late pushback is often recovered here: of 100 departures that left 15 minutes late or more, 33 still arrived on time. Only 4 left on time and still arrived late.
The worst days
Worst days for Alaska on FAT to SEA
The latest arrival of the period was on 20 May 2026, 3 hours 47 minutes behind schedule; most of its delay minutes were filed as a late-arriving aircraft. Three of the five worst days fell in May 2026.
| Date | Arrived late by | Largest filed cause |
|---|---|---|
| 20 May 2026 | 3 hours 47 minutes | Late-arriving aircraft |
| 11 May 2026 | 3 hours 21 minutes | Carrier |
| 24 November 2025 | 3 hours 14 minutes | Late-arriving aircraft |
| 26 January 2026 | 3 hours 14 minutes | Carrier |
| 10 May 2026 | 3 hours 13 minutes | Late-arriving aircraft |
Delay causes
Why Alaska runs late on this route
Late-arriving aircraft accounts for 65% of the 4,053 delay minutes carriers reported here, and the remaining four split what is left.
- 65%Late-arriving aircraft
- 25%Carrier
- 9%National Airspace System
- 1%Extreme weather
65% of delay minutes trace back to a late-arriving aircraft, meaning the plane was already behind before it got here. Across 4,053 reported delay minutes here, that single category outweighs weather by 65 to one. The split is drawn from 4,053 reported delay minutes.
Cancellations sit at 0.96% against a national 1.89%, which is ordinary. Diversions add another 0.00%.
Connections and stage length
What a delay here costs
5.8% of arrivals land an hour or more late, close to the national 8.3%, so a 60 to 75 minute layover is reasonable here while anything under 45 minutes is a bet. Most delays on this route last about an hour, which a normal layover absorbs.
The 748 miles between these two airports put this in the middle of the US network, around two and a half to three hours of block time. That is enough cruise to absorb a ten-minute late pushback and not enough to absorb thirty.
The return leg runs 80.9% on time across 417 flights, within 2 points of this direction. The two legs are scored separately because they usually differ; on this city pair they happen not to.
One caution: this is a thin sample. 417 flights over twelve months is enough to clear this site's floor but not enough to pin the rate down tightly, and a single bad week moves it by more than a point. Treat the grade as a rough reading.
What to do with this
Booking Alaska on FAT to SEA
Put together: treat all of this as provisional. 417 flights over twelve months is enough to clear this site's floor and not enough to be confident to better than a couple of points. The 82.8% headline is the most reliable number on the page; the hour and month splits below it are built on a few dozen flights each. 413 completed flights over 12 months sit behind that.
Related
Where to go next
- FAT to SEA, every carrier
- Alaska on SEA to FAT, the return leg
- SkyWest Airlines on FAT to SEA82.7%
- Alaska Airlines network-wide record
- Seattle-Tacoma International (SEA) delay statistics
- Why the first flight of the morning is statistically safest
- How to read this site: grades, sample sizes, and honest caveats
Source: US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics, on-time performance data, September 2025 to August 2026. Last updated ; recomputed monthly. How this data is collected.