Flight number record
AS 641
Alaska Airlines · Tucson to Seattle
- Route
- TUS → SEA
- Departs
- 14:29
- Flights
- 335
- Period
- September 2025 to August 2026
Historical statistics for September 2025 to August 2026, not live status. For today’s AS 641, check with Alaska Airlines.
AS 641 lands a B+, 2 points better than the national rate of 77.3%. About one flight in five arrives 15 minutes late or worse, and those flights are late by roughly 50 minutes on average. That rests on 335 flights, with a median arrival 4 minutes early.
Key figures
On time
79.3%
Arrivals under 15 minutes late, of 333 completed flights
Avg delay
49 min
Across delayed arrivals only, not all flights
Cancelled
0.60%
National rate is 1.89%
1 hour+ late
3.9%
National rate is 8.3%
These figures cover 335 flights between September 2025 and August 2026. The median arrival is 4 minutes early, which is the part an average hides: most flights here are fine, and the on-time rate is decided by a tail of badly late ones. On-time means under 15 minutes late, the DOT's own threshold.
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Schedule
When AS 641 flies
AS 641 flies TUS to SEA without a single fixed slot. Its most common scheduled departure was 14:29, used on 70 of 335 flights, with 15:44 (35 flights) next.
- Departs 14:2970 flights20.9%
- Departs 15:4435 flights10.4%
Scale runs 0% to 100%.
Share of scheduled departures at each local time. Times used on fewer than one flight in ten are not listed.
A 14:29 departure sits in the 2pm–5pm window. Across every US flight scheduled in that window the on-time rate is 71.9%, and AS 641 runs 7 points better at 79.3%. Midday slots inherit some of the morning's delays without yet carrying the full weight of the evening's.
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Against the route
AS 641 next to TUS to SEA
Every carrier on TUS to SEA combined arrived on time 85.9% of the time across 1,065 flights, so AS 641 is 7 points behind it. Alaska flew 556 flights on the same city pair under all its flight numbers, including this one, and those ran 84.6% on time. Across its whole network Alaska Airlines managed 79.7%, close to this flight's figure.
| Compared with | Flights | On time | Avg delay | Cancelled | Grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AS 641thin sample | 335 | 79.3% | 49 min | 0.60% | B+ |
| All Alaska Airlines on TUS–SEA | 556 | 84.6% | 45 min | 0.90% | B+ |
| All carriers on TUS–SEA | 1,065 | 85.9% | 64 min | 0.66% | A+ |
| Alaska Airlines, whole network | 309,844 | 79.7% | 52 min | 1.20% | B |
Across the year
AS 641 quarter by quarter
AS 641 did not run the same all year. Its best quarter was Jul–Sep 2025 at 100.0% on time and its weakest Oct–Dec 2025 at 61.1%, a swing of 39 points on roughly 67 flights a quarter. The twelve-month rate averages over that, so if you are flying in a weak quarter the quarter's own figure is the better guide.
- Jul–Sep 202530 flights100.0%
- Oct–Dec 202573 flights61.1%
- Jan–Mar 202680 flights82.3%
- Apr–Jun 202690 flights85.6%
- Jul–Sep 202662 flights77.4%
Scale runs 55% to 100%.
By weekday, AS 641 did best on Saturday at 88.9% on time and worst on Friday at 70.6%. Each day rests on about 48 flights, so a gap of 18 points is worth noticing but could still narrow in another year.
Arrival by arrival
How late AS 641 runs when it is late
AS 641 often beats the schedule: 94 of 333 completed flights, 28%, arrived 15 minutes or more early. Most of the lateness is short. 35 of the 69 late arrivals were under half an hour behind, and 13 reached an hour or more.
- 15+ min early94 flights28.2%
- Within 15 min170 flights51.1%
- 15–29 min late35 flights10.5%
- 30–59 min late21 flights6.3%
- 1–2 hours late6 flights1.8%
- 2+ hours late7 flights2.1%
Scale runs 0% to 100%.
Share of 333 completed flights by arrival against schedule.
A late pushback is often recovered here: of 94 departures that left 15 minutes late or more, 33 still arrived on time. 8 flights left on time and still arrived late.
The worst days
Worst days for AS 641
The latest arrival of the period was on 23 October 2025, 7 hours 24 minutes behind schedule; most of its delay minutes were filed as carrier-caused (crew, maintenance, fuelling, baggage). On three of the five worst days the largest share was filed as a late-arriving aircraft.
| Date | Arrived late by | Largest filed cause |
|---|---|---|
| 23 October 2025 | 7 hours 24 minutes | Carrier |
| 13 November 2025 | 3 hours 43 minutes | Carrier |
| 5 July 2026 | 3 hours 11 minutes | Late-arriving aircraft |
| 26 January 2026 | 2 hours 29 minutes | Late-arriving aircraft |
| 16 July 2026 | 2 hours 23 minutes | Late-arriving aircraft |
Delay causes
Why AS 641 runs late
Late-arriving aircraft accounts for 62% of the 3,366 delay minutes carriers reported here, and the remaining four split what is left.
- 62%Late-arriving aircraft
- 27%Carrier
- 9%National Airspace System
- 1%Extreme weather
- 0%Security
62% of delay minutes trace back to a late-arriving aircraft, meaning the plane was already behind before it got here. Across 3,366 reported delay minutes here, that single category outweighs weather by 62 to one. The split is drawn from 3,366 delay minutes reported on AS 641.
Cancellations are rare at 0.60%, below the national 1.89% and low enough to earn the plus on the grade. Roughly one flight in 100 is called off; the risk here is arriving late, not not arriving.
Connections and routes
What a delay on this flight costs
Badly late arrivals are rare here: only 3.9% land an hour or more behind schedule, against 8.3% nationally. Connections built on this flight are about as safe as US domestic connections get, though a cancelled flight still ignores every layover you give it.
The 1,215 miles between these two airports put this in the middle of the US network, around two and a half to three hours of block time. That is enough cruise to absorb a ten-minute late pushback and not enough to absorb thirty.
Every one of the 335 flights under AS 641 in the data flew TUS to SEA. The number was not reused on any other city pair, which makes this a clean record of one route.
One caution: this is a thin sample. 335 flights over twelve months is enough to clear this site's floor but not enough to pin the rate down tightly, and a single bad week moves it by more than a point. Treat the grade as a rough reading.
What to do with this
Booking AS 641
For a booking, AS 641 is one of the weaker ways to fly TUS to SEA: 7 points below the route as a whole. If the schedule allows, compare it with the other departures listed on the route page before settling on this one.
Related
Where to go next
- TUS to SEA, every carrier and departure
- SEA to TUS, the return direction
- Seattle-Tacoma International (SEA) delay statistics
- Alaska Airlines on-time record
- Every Alaska Airlines flight number with a record
- The most and least reliable flight numbers in the US
- Why the first flight of the morning is statistically safest
A flight number here means Alaska Airlines’s own number as it reports to the DOT. How the figures are computed is on the methodology page.
Source: US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics, on-time performance data, September 2025 to August 2026. Last updated ; recomputed monthly. How this data is collected.