Flight number record
AS 641
Alaska Airlines · Tucson to Seattle
- Route
- TUS → SEA
- Departs
- 12:17
- Flights
- 335
- Period
- July 2025 to June 2026
Historical statistics for July 2025 to June 2026, not live status. For today’s AS 641, check with Alaska Airlines.
AS 641 lands a B+, 4 points better than the national rate of 77.6%. About one flight in six arrives 15 minutes late or worse, and those flights are late by roughly 50 minutes on average. That is a workable record, not a spotless one. That rests on 335 flights, with a median arrival 5 minutes early.
Set against the rest of the country, AS 641's record is 4 points better than the US average of 77.6%. That gap is worth roughly 44 fewer late arrivals for every thousand flights.
Key figures
On time
82.0%
Arrivals under 15 minutes late, of 333 completed flights
Avg delay
48 min
Across delayed arrivals only, not all flights
Cancelled
0.60%
National rate is 1.81%
1 hour+ late
3.3%
National rate is 8.1%
These figures cover 335 flights between July 2025 and June 2026. The median arrival is 5 minutes early, which is the part an average hides: most flights here are fine, and the on-time rate is decided by a tail of badly late ones. On-time means under 15 minutes late, the DOT's own threshold.
Schedule
When AS 641 flies
AS 641 flies TUS to SEA without a single fixed slot. Its most common scheduled departure was 12:17, used on 45 of 335 flights, with 12:06 (43 flights) and 15:44 (35 flights) next. Carriers retime flights through the season, so the rates here blend slightly different positions in the aircraft's day.
- Departs 12:1745 flights13.4%
- Departs 12:0643 flights12.8%
- Departs 15:4435 flights10.4%
Scale runs 0% to 100%. Rows with fewer than 30 flights show a dash.
Share of scheduled departures at each local time. Times used on fewer than one flight in ten are not listed.
A 12:17 departure sits in the 11am–2pm window. Across every US flight scheduled in that window the on-time rate is 78.8%, and AS 641 runs 3 points better at 82.0%. Midday slots inherit some of the morning's delays without yet carrying the full weight of the evening's.
Against the route
AS 641 next to TUS to SEA
Every carrier on TUS to SEA combined arrived on time 87.0% of the time across 1,065 flights, so AS 641 is 5 points behind it. Alaska flew 556 flights on the same city pair under all its flight numbers, including this one, and those ran 86.2% on time. Across its whole network Alaska Airlines managed 79.1%, which this flight beats by 3 points.
| Compared with | Flights | On time | Avg delay | Cancelled | Grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AS 641thin sample | 335 | 82.0% | 48 min | 0.60% | B+ |
| All Alaska Airlines on TUS–SEA | 556 | 86.2% | 44 min | 0.90% | A+ |
| All carriers on TUS–SEA | 1,065 | 87.0% | 63 min | 0.66% | A+ |
| Alaska Airlines, whole network | 293,372 | 79.1% | 52 min | 1.28% | B |
Across the year
AS 641 quarter by quarter
AS 641 did not run the same all year. Its best quarter was Jul–Sep 2025 at 94.6% on time and its weakest Oct–Dec 2025 at 61.1%, a swing of 33 points on roughly 84 flights a quarter. The twelve-month rate averages over that, so if you are flying in a weak quarter the quarter's own figure is the better guide.
- Jul–Sep 202592 flights94.6%
- Oct–Dec 202573 flights61.1%
- Jan–Mar 202680 flights82.3%
- Apr–Jun 202690 flights85.6%
Scale runs 55% to 100%. Rows with fewer than 30 flights show a dash.
By weekday, AS 641 did best on Saturday at 88.9% on time and worst on Friday at 74.5%. Each day rests on about 48 flights, so a gap of 14 points is worth noticing but could still narrow in another year.
Delay causes
Why AS 641 runs late
One category carries most of the weight here. Late-arriving aircraft accounts for 60% of the 2,890 delay minutes carriers reported, and the remaining four split what is left. The split is by minutes rather than by flights, so a few very long delays count for as much as many short ones.
- 60%Late-arriving aircraft
- 30%Carrier
- 9%National Airspace System
- 1%Extreme weather
- 0%Security
60% of delay minutes trace back to a late-arriving aircraft, meaning the plane was already behind before it got here. That is a cascade, and cascades start small and grow through the day. Across 2,890 reported delay minutes here, that single category outweighs weather by 50 to one. It is the strongest argument for booking the first departure of the morning, when the aircraft has been sitting at the gate overnight with nothing to inherit. The split is drawn from 2,890 delay minutes reported on AS 641.
Cancellations are rare at 0.60%, below the national 1.81% and low enough to earn the plus on the grade. Roughly one flight in 100 is called off; the risk here is arriving late, not not arriving.
Connections and routes
What a delay on this flight costs
Badly late arrivals are rare here: only 3.3% land an hour or more behind schedule, against 8.1% nationally. Connections built on this flight are about as safe as US domestic connections get, though a cancelled flight still ignores every layover you give it.
The 1,215 miles between these two airports put this in the middle of the US network, around two and a half to three hours of block time. That is enough cruise to absorb a ten-minute late pushback and not enough to absorb thirty. It is also long enough that the aircraft usually flies three or four legs a day rather than six, which slows how fast delay compounds.
Every one of the 335 flights under AS 641 in the data flew TUS to SEA. The number was not reused on any other city pair, which makes this a clean record of one route.
One caution: this is a thin sample. 335 flights over twelve months is enough to clear this site's floor but not enough to pin the rate down tightly, and a single bad week moves it by more than a point. Treat the grade as a rough reading.
What to do with this
Booking AS 641
For a booking, AS 641 is one of the weaker ways to fly TUS to SEA: 5 points below the route as a whole. If the schedule allows, compare it with the other departures listed on the route page before settling on this one.
Related
Where to go next
- TUS to SEA, every carrier and departure
- SEA to TUS, the return direction
- Seattle-Tacoma International (SEA) delay statistics
- Alaska Airlines on-time record
- Every Alaska Airlines flight number with a record
- The most and least reliable flight numbers in the US
- Why the first flight of the morning is statistically safest
A flight number here means Alaska Airlines’s own number as it reports to the DOT. How the figures are computed is on the methodology page.
Source: US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics, on-time performance data, July 2025 to June 2026. Last updated 15 September 2026; recomputed monthly. How this data is collected.