Flight number record
AS 451
Alaska Airlines · New Orleans to Seattle
- Route
- MSY → SEA
- Departs
- 07:00
- Flights
- 303
- Period
- September 2025 to August 2026
Historical statistics for September 2025 to August 2026, not live status. For today’s AS 451, check with Alaska Airlines.
AS 451 sits in the middle of the pack with a C+. Close to three flights in four arrive on time by the DOT's definition, 4 points worse than the national rate of 77.3%. The late ones land about 50 minutes behind schedule. That rests on 303 flights, with a median arrival 1 minute early.
Key figures
On time
73.8%
Arrivals under 15 minutes late, of 301 completed flights
Avg delay
50 min
Across delayed arrivals only, not all flights
Cancelled
0.33%
National rate is 1.89%
1 hour+ late
5.3%
National rate is 8.3%
These figures cover 303 flights between September 2025 and August 2026. On-time means an arrival less than 15 minutes after the scheduled gate time, the same threshold the Department of Transportation uses in its own reports. Cancelled and diverted flights are excluded from the on-time rate and counted separately, which is why the cancellation column matters on its own.
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Schedule
When AS 451 flies
AS 451 flies MSY to SEA without a single fixed slot. Its most common scheduled departure was 07:00, used on 128 of 303 flights, with 07:10 (68 flights) and 18:20 (33 flights) next.
- Departs 07:00128 flights42.2%
- Departs 07:1068 flights22.4%
- Departs 18:2033 flights10.9%
Scale runs 0% to 100%.
Share of scheduled departures at each local time. Times used on fewer than one flight in ten are not listed.
A 07:00 departure sits in the 5am–8am window. Across every US flight scheduled in that window the on-time rate is 89.3%, and AS 451 runs 16 points worse at 73.8%. Early departures usually start with an aircraft that has not flown yet that day, which is most of why the window does well.
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Against the route
AS 451 next to MSY to SEA
Every carrier on MSY to SEA combined arrived on time 72.4% of the time across 619 flights, so AS 451 is about level with it. Alaska flew 614 flights on the same city pair under all its flight numbers, including this one, and those ran 72.2% on time. Across its whole network Alaska Airlines managed 79.7%, which this flight trails by 6 points.
| Compared with | Flights | On time | Avg delay | Cancelled | Grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AS 451thin sample | 303 | 73.8% | 50 min | 0.33% | C+ |
| All Alaska Airlines on MSY–SEA | 614 | 72.2% | 54 min | 0.81% | C+ |
| All carriers on MSY–SEA | 619 | 72.4% | 54 min | 0.81% | C+ |
| Alaska Airlines, whole network | 309,844 | 79.7% | 52 min | 1.20% | B |
Across the year
AS 451 quarter by quarter
AS 451 did not run the same all year. Its best quarter was Jul–Sep 2026 at 81.2% on time and its weakest Jan–Mar 2026 at 58.8%, a swing of 22 points on roughly 76 flights a quarter. The twelve-month rate averages over that, so if you are flying in a weak quarter the quarter's own figure is the better guide.
- Jul–Sep 202521 flights—
- Oct–Dec 202591 flights70.3%
- Jan–Mar 202652 flights58.8%
- Apr–Jun 202691 flights78.9%
- Jul–Sep 202648 flights81.2%
Scale runs 50% to 85%. Rows with fewer than 30 flights show a dash.
By weekday, AS 451 ranged from 65.9% on Saturday to 77.5% on Tuesday. With about 43 flights behind each day, a spread of 12 points is inside normal variation, so the day you fly is not worth changing for this flight.
Arrival by arrival
How late AS 451 runs when it is late
Most of the lateness is short. 41 of the 79 late arrivals were under half an hour behind, and 16 reached an hour or more.
- 15+ min early75 flights24.9%
- Within 15 min147 flights48.8%
- 15–29 min late41 flights13.6%
- 30–59 min late22 flights7.3%
- 1–2 hours late12 flights4.0%
- 2+ hours late4 flights1.3%
Scale runs 0% to 100%.
Share of 301 completed flights by arrival against schedule.
18 of 67 late departures made up the time and arrived on time, 27% of them. In the other direction, 30 flights left on time yet arrived 15 minutes late or more, so that delay built up after pushback: in the air, in a holding pattern or on the ground at SEA.
The worst days
Worst days for AS 451
The latest arrival of the period was on 18 June 2026, 14 hours 53 minutes behind schedule; most of its delay minutes were filed as a late-arriving aircraft. The five worst days are spread across June, March, December, July and April, with no single month standing out.
| Date | Arrived late by | Largest filed cause |
|---|---|---|
| 18 June 2026 | 14 hours 53 minutes | Late-arriving aircraft |
| 15 March 2026 | 2 hours 16 minutes | National Airspace System |
| 15 December 2025 | 2 hours 15 minutes | Carrier |
| 19 July 2026 | 2 hours 11 minutes | Late-arriving aircraft |
| 25 April 2026 | 1 hour 51 minutes | Extreme weather |
Delay causes
Why AS 451 runs late
Late-arriving aircraft accounts for 51% of the 3,913 delay minutes carriers reported here, and the remaining four split what is left.
- 51%Late-arriving aircraft
- 28%National Airspace System
- 13%Carrier
- 4%Extreme weather
- 4%Security
51% of delay minutes trace back to a late-arriving aircraft, meaning the plane was already behind before it got here. Across 3,913 reported delay minutes here, that single category outweighs weather by 12 to one. The split is drawn from 3,913 delay minutes reported on AS 451.
Cancellations are rare at 0.33%, below the national 1.89% and low enough to earn the plus on the grade. Roughly one flight in 100 is called off; the risk here is arriving late, not not arriving.
Connections and routes
What a delay on this flight costs
5.3% of arrivals land an hour or more late, close to the national 8.3%, so a 60 to 75 minute layover is reasonable here while anything under 45 minutes is a bet. Most delays on this route last about 50 minutes, which a normal layover absorbs.
At 2,086 miles this is transcontinental flying, and long routes get a quiet structural advantage. Scheduled block time on a flight this length carries more padding in absolute minutes, so a twenty-minute late departure often still becomes an on-time arrival. Read the on-time rate here as slightly flattering next to a short-haul route with the same operational quality.
The same number turns up on two other city pairs in the data, including CVG to SEA (12) and SEA to CVG (12), but none flew often enough under AS 451 to report a rate for. Carriers move flight numbers between routes, so the figures on this page apply to MSY to SEA only.
One caution: this is a thin sample. 303 flights over twelve months is enough to clear this site's floor but not enough to pin the rate down tightly, and a single bad week moves it by more than a point. Treat the grade as a rough reading.
What to do with this
Booking AS 451
For a booking, read AS 451 as 73.8% on time with 0.33% cancelled over 303 flights. Those are rates from the past twelve months, not a forecast for any particular day.
Related
Where to go next
- Louis Armstrong New Orleans International (MSY) delay statistics
- Seattle-Tacoma International (SEA) delay statistics
- Alaska Airlines on-time record
- Every Alaska Airlines flight number with a record
- The most and least reliable flight numbers in the US
- Why the first flight of the morning is statistically safest
A flight number here means Alaska Airlines’s own number as it reports to the DOT. How the figures are computed is on the methodology page.
Source: US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics, on-time performance data, September 2025 to August 2026. Last updated ; recomputed monthly. How this data is collected.