Flight number record

AS 451

Alaska Airlines · New Orleans to Seattle

Route: MSY → SEA
Departs: 07:00
Flights: 314
Period: July 2025 to June 2026

Historical statistics for July 2025 to June 2026, not live status. For today’s AS 451, check with Alaska Airlines.

AS 451 sits in the middle of the pack with a C+. About seven flights in ten arrive on time by the DOT's definition, 6 points worse than the national rate of 77.6%. The late ones land about 50 minutes behind schedule. That rests on 314 flights, with a median arrival 1 minute late.

The national on-time rate over the same period is 77.6%, so AS 451 runs 6 points behind the country as a whole. Across a thousand flights that is about 64 extra late arrivals.

On time

71.2%

Arrivals under 15 minutes late, of 312 completed flights

Avg delay

50 min

Across delayed arrivals only, not all flights

Cancelled

0.32%

National rate is 1.81%

1 hour+ late

5.4%

National rate is 8.1%

These figures cover 314 flights between July 2025 and June 2026. On-time means an arrival less than 15 minutes after the scheduled gate time, the same threshold the Department of Transportation uses in its own reports. Cancelled and diverted flights are excluded from the on-time rate and counted separately, which is why the cancellation column matters on its own.

Schedule

When AS 451 flies

AS 451 flies MSY to SEA without a single fixed slot. Its most common scheduled departure was 07:00, used on 128 of 314 flights, with 07:10 (70 flights) and 18:20 (33 flights) next. Carriers retime flights through the season, so the rates here blend slightly different positions in the aircraft's day.

Departs 07:00128 flights40.8%
Departs 07:1070 flights22.3%
Departs 18:2033 flights10.5%

Scale runs 0% to 100%. Rows with fewer than 30 flights show a dash.

Share of scheduled departures at each local time. Times used on fewer than one flight in ten are not listed.

A 07:00 departure sits in the 5am–8am window. Across every US flight scheduled in that window the on-time rate is 89.3%, and AS 451 runs 18 points worse at 71.2%. Early departures usually start with an aircraft that has not flown yet that day, which is most of why the window does well.

Against the route

AS 451 next to MSY to SEA

Every carrier on MSY to SEA combined arrived on time 71.6% of the time across 626 flights, so AS 451 is about level with it. Alaska flew 621 flights on the same city pair under all its flight numbers, including this one, and those ran 71.4% on time. Across its whole network Alaska Airlines managed 79.1%, which this flight trails by 8 points.

AS 451 against its route and carrier
Compared with	Flights	On time	Avg delay	Cancelled	Grade
AS 451thin sample	314	71.2%	50 min	0.32%	C+
All Alaska Airlines on MSY–SEA	621	71.4%	51 min	0.81%	C+
All carriers on MSY–SEA	626	71.6%	51 min	0.80%	C+
Alaska Airlines, whole network	293,372	79.1%	52 min	1.28%	B

Across the year

AS 451 quarter by quarter

AS 451 did not run the same all year. Its best quarter was Apr–Jun 2026 at 78.9% on time and its weakest Jan–Mar 2026 at 58.8%, a swing of 20 points on roughly 79 flights a quarter. The twelve-month rate averages over that, so if you are flying in a weak quarter the quarter's own figure is the better guide.

Jul–Sep 202580 flights71.2%
Oct–Dec 202591 flights70.3%
Jan–Mar 202652 flights58.8%
Apr–Jun 202691 flights78.9%

Scale runs 50% to 85%. Rows with fewer than 30 flights show a dash.

By weekday, AS 451 did best on Tuesday at 78.6% on time and worst on Monday at 66.0%. Each day rests on about 45 flights, so a gap of 13 points is worth noticing but could still narrow in another year.

Delay causes

Why AS 451 runs late

One category carries most of the weight here. Late-arriving aircraft accounts for 54% of the 4,463 delay minutes carriers reported, and the remaining four split what is left. The split is by minutes rather than by flights, so a few very long delays count for as much as many short ones.

Late-arriving aircraft
54%
National Airspace System
25%
Carrier
13%
Extreme weather
4%
Security
3%

54% of delay minutes trace back to a late-arriving aircraft, meaning the plane was already behind before it got here. That is a cascade, and cascades start small and grow through the day. Across 4,463 reported delay minutes here, that single category outweighs weather by 15 to one. It is the strongest argument for booking the first departure of the morning, when the aircraft has been sitting at the gate overnight with nothing to inherit. The split is drawn from 4,463 delay minutes reported on AS 451.

Cancellations are rare at 0.32%, below the national 1.81% and low enough to earn the plus on the grade. Roughly one flight in 100 is called off; the risk here is arriving late, not not arriving.

Connections and routes

What a delay on this flight costs

5.4% of arrivals land an hour or more late, close to the national 8.1%. That is the figure that decides a connection, and it says a 60 to 75 minute layover is reasonable here while anything under 45 minutes is a bet. Most delays on this route last about 50 minutes, which a normal layover absorbs.

At 2,086 miles this is transcontinental flying, and long routes get a quiet structural advantage. Scheduled block time on a flight this length carries more padding in absolute minutes, so a twenty-minute late departure often still becomes an on-time arrival. Read the on-time rate here as slightly flattering next to a short-haul route with the same operational quality.

Every one of the 314 flights under AS 451 in the data flew MSY to SEA. The number was not reused on any other city pair, which makes this a clean record of one route.

One caution: this is a thin sample. 314 flights over twelve months is enough to clear this site's floor but not enough to pin the rate down tightly, and a single bad week moves it by more than a point. Treat the grade as a rough reading.

What to do with this

Booking AS 451

For a booking, read AS 451 as 71.2% on time with 0.32% cancelled over 314 flights. Those are rates from the past twelve months, not a forecast for any particular day.

Where to go next

A flight number here means Alaska Airlines’s own number as it reports to the DOT. How the figures are computed is on the methodology page.

Source: US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics, on-time performance data, July 2025 to June 2026. Last updated 15 September 2026; recomputed monthly. How this data is collected.

Key figures