Flight number record
AS 420
Alaska Airlines · Seattle to Orlando
- Route
- SEA → MCO
- Departs
- 09:47
- Flights
- 361
- Period
- September 2025 to August 2026
Historical statistics for September 2025 to August 2026, not live status. For today’s AS 420, check with Alaska Airlines.
AS 420 lands a B+, 5 points better than the national rate of 77.3%. About one flight in six arrives 15 minutes late or worse, and those flights are late by roughly 40 minutes on average. That rests on 361 flights, with a median arrival 9 minutes early.
Set against the rest of the country, AS 420's record is 5 points better than the US average of 77.3%. That gap is worth roughly 48 fewer late arrivals for every thousand flights.
Key figures
On time
82.1%
Arrivals under 15 minutes late, of 358 completed flights
Avg delay
42 min
Across delayed arrivals only, not all flights
Cancelled
0.55%
National rate is 1.89%
1 hour+ late
3.4%
National rate is 8.3%
These figures cover 361 flights between September 2025 and August 2026. The median arrival is 9 minutes early, which is the part an average hides: most flights here are fine, and the on-time rate is decided by a tail of badly late ones. On-time means under 15 minutes late, the DOT's own threshold.
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Schedule
When AS 420 flies
AS 420 flies SEA to MCO without a single fixed slot. Its most common scheduled departure was 09:47, used on 70 of 361 flights, with 08:01 (55 flights) next.
- Departs 09:4770 flights19.4%
- Departs 08:0155 flights15.2%
Scale runs 0% to 100%.
Share of scheduled departures at each local time. Times used on fewer than one flight in ten are not listed.
A 09:47 departure sits in the 8am–11am window. Across every US flight scheduled in that window the on-time rate is 83.9%, and AS 420 runs level with that at 82.1%. Early departures usually start with an aircraft that has not flown yet that day, which is most of why the window does well.
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Against the route
AS 420 next to SEA to MCO
Every carrier on SEA to MCO combined arrived on time 82.1% of the time across 1,818 flights, so AS 420 is about level with it. Alaska flew 1,099 flights on the same city pair under all its flight numbers, including this one, and those ran 83.6% on time. Across its whole network Alaska Airlines managed 79.7%, which this flight beats by 2 points.
| Compared with | Flights | On time | Avg delay | Cancelled | Grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AS 420thin sample | 361 | 82.1% | 42 min | 0.55% | B+ |
| All Alaska Airlines on SEA–MCO | 1,099 | 83.6% | 41 min | 0.27% | B+ |
| All carriers on SEA–MCO | 1,818 | 82.1% | 49 min | 0.72% | B+ |
| Alaska Airlines, whole network | 309,844 | 79.7% | 52 min | 1.20% | B |
Across the year
AS 420 quarter by quarter
AS 420 did not run the same all year. Its best quarter was Jul–Sep 2025 at 90.0% on time and its weakest Jul–Sep 2026 at 71.2%, a swing of 19 points on roughly 72 flights a quarter. The twelve-month rate averages over that, so if you are flying in a weak quarter the quarter's own figure is the better guide.
- Jul–Sep 202530 flights90.0%
- Oct–Dec 202592 flights84.8%
- Jan–Mar 202690 flights80.9%
- Apr–Jun 202690 flights85.2%
- Jul–Sep 202659 flights71.2%
Scale runs 65% to 95%.
By weekday, AS 420 ranged from 78.4% on Saturday to 85.7% on Wednesday. With about 52 flights behind each day, a spread of 7 points is inside normal variation, so the day you fly is not worth changing for this flight.
Arrival by arrival
How late AS 420 runs when it is late
AS 420 often beats the schedule: 124 of 358 completed flights, 35%, arrived 15 minutes or more early. The 64 late arrivals split 28 under half an hour, 24 between 30 and 60 minutes, and 12 an hour or more.
- 15+ min early124 flights34.6%
- Within 15 min170 flights47.5%
- 15–29 min late28 flights7.8%
- 30–59 min late24 flights6.7%
- 1–2 hours late10 flights2.8%
- 2+ hours late2 flights0.6%
Scale runs 0% to 100%.
Share of 358 completed flights by arrival against schedule.
A late pushback is often recovered here: of 53 departures that left 15 minutes late or more, 23 still arrived on time. In the other direction, 34 flights left on time yet arrived 15 minutes late or more, so that delay built up after pushback: in the air, in a holding pattern or on the ground at MCO.
The worst days
Worst days for AS 420
The latest arrival of the period was on 15 March 2026, 2 hours 52 minutes behind schedule; most of its delay minutes were filed as national airspace system delay. Three of the five worst days fell in March 2026.
| Date | Arrived late by | Largest filed cause |
|---|---|---|
| 15 March 2026 | 2 hours 52 minutes | National Airspace System |
| 27 October 2025 | 2 hours 7 minutes | National Airspace System |
| 8 April 2026 | 1 hour 48 minutes | Carrier |
| 2 March 2026 | 1 hour 41 minutes | Carrier |
| 24 March 2026 | 1 hour 32 minutes | National Airspace System |
Delay causes
Why AS 420 runs late
National Airspace System accounts for 58% of the 2,694 delay minutes carriers reported here, and the remaining four split what is left.
- 58%National Airspace System
- 26%Carrier
- 14%Late-arriving aircraft
- 2%Extreme weather
58% of delay minutes are charged to the National Airspace System: air traffic volume, runway configuration, ground stops. No carrier can price its way out of that, which is why airport choice moves the number here more than carrier choice does. That is 1,564 minutes out of 2,694, against a national NAS share of 21%. The split is drawn from 2,694 delay minutes reported on AS 420.
Cancellations are rare at 0.55%, below the national 1.89% and low enough to earn the plus on the grade. Roughly one flight in 100 is called off; the risk here is arriving late, not not arriving.
Connections and routes
What a delay on this flight costs
Badly late arrivals are rare here: only 3.4% land an hour or more behind schedule, against 8.3% nationally. Connections built on this flight are about as safe as US domestic connections get, though a cancelled flight still ignores every layover you give it.
At 2,554 miles this is transcontinental flying, and long routes get a quiet structural advantage. Scheduled block time on a flight this length carries more padding in absolute minutes, so a twenty-minute late departure often still becomes an on-time arrival. Read the on-time rate here as slightly flattering next to a short-haul route with the same operational quality.
Every one of the 361 flights under AS 420 in the data flew SEA to MCO. The number was not reused on any other city pair, which makes this a clean record of one route.
One caution: this is a thin sample. 361 flights over twelve months is enough to clear this site's floor but not enough to pin the rate down tightly, and a single bad week moves it by more than a point. Treat the grade as a rough reading.
What to do with this
Booking AS 420
For a booking, read AS 420 as 82.1% on time with 0.55% cancelled over 361 flights. Those are rates from the past twelve months, not a forecast for any particular day.
Related
Where to go next
- SEA to MCO, every carrier and departure
- MCO to SEA, the return direction
- Delta Air Lines 328 on the same route74.8%
- Delta Air Lines 448 on the same route84.7%
- Seattle-Tacoma International (SEA) delay statistics
- Orlando International (MCO) delay statistics
- Alaska Airlines on-time record
- Every Alaska Airlines flight number with a record
- The most and least reliable flight numbers in the US
- The best time of day to fly, according to 7.05 million flight records
A flight number here means Alaska Airlines’s own number as it reports to the DOT. How the figures are computed is on the methodology page.
Source: US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics, on-time performance data, September 2025 to August 2026. Last updated ; recomputed monthly. How this data is collected.