Flight number record
AS 410
Alaska Airlines · Seattle to Chicago
- Route
- SEA → ORD
- Departs
- 13:45
- Flights
- 353
- Period
- July 2025 to June 2026
Historical statistics for July 2025 to June 2026, not live status. For today’s AS 410, check with Alaska Airlines.
AS 410 draws a C+. About one flight in three arrives at least 15 minutes late, and the typical late arrival is about an hour behind schedule. Build slack into anything you connect to. That rests on 353 flights, with a median arrival 3 minutes early.
The national on-time rate over the same period is 77.6%, so AS 410 runs 10 points behind the country as a whole. Across a thousand flights that is about 97 extra late arrivals.
Key figures
On time
67.9%
Arrivals under 15 minutes late, of 346 completed flights
Avg delay
58 min
Across delayed arrivals only, not all flights
Cancelled
0.85%
National rate is 1.81%
1 hour+ late
9.8%
National rate is 8.1%
These figures cover 353 flights between July 2025 and June 2026. Beyond the headline rate, 9.8% of arrivals land a full hour or more behind schedule. That is the number that wrecks a connection, and it is not visible in an on-time percentage alone.
Schedule
When AS 410 flies
AS 410 flies SEA to ORD without a single fixed slot. Its most common scheduled departure was 13:45, used on 50 of 353 flights, with 13:39 (45 flights) next. Carriers retime flights through the season, so the rates here blend slightly different positions in the aircraft's day.
- Departs 13:4550 flights14.2%
- Departs 13:3945 flights12.7%
Scale runs 0% to 100%. Rows with fewer than 30 flights show a dash.
Share of scheduled departures at each local time. Times used on fewer than one flight in ten are not listed.
A 13:45 departure sits in the 11am–2pm window. Across every US flight scheduled in that window the on-time rate is 78.8%, and AS 410 runs 11 points worse at 67.9%. Midday slots inherit some of the morning's delays without yet carrying the full weight of the evening's.
Against the route
AS 410 next to SEA to ORD
Every carrier on SEA to ORD combined arrived on time 75.0% of the time across 5,566 flights, so AS 410 is 7 points behind it. Alaska flew 1,794 flights on the same city pair under all its flight numbers, including this one, and those ran 72.3% on time. Across its whole network Alaska Airlines managed 79.1%, which this flight trails by 11 points.
| Compared with | Flights | On time | Avg delay | Cancelled | Grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AS 410thin sample | 353 | 67.9% | 58 min | 0.85% | C+ |
| All Alaska Airlines on SEA–ORD | 1,794 | 72.3% | 55 min | 1.06% | C |
| All carriers on SEA–ORD | 5,566 | 75.0% | 74 min | 1.28% | B |
| Alaska Airlines, whole network | 293,372 | 79.1% | 52 min | 1.28% | B |
Across the year
AS 410 quarter by quarter
AS 410 did not run the same all year. Its best quarter was Jan–Mar 2026 at 76.8% on time and its weakest Jul–Sep 2025 at 46.7%, a swing of 30 points on roughly 88 flights a quarter. The twelve-month rate averages over that, so if you are flying in a weak quarter the quarter's own figure is the better guide.
- Jul–Sep 202592 flights46.7%
- Oct–Dec 202586 flights75.6%
- Jan–Mar 202684 flights76.8%
- Apr–Jun 202691 flights73.9%
Scale runs 40% to 80%. Rows with fewer than 30 flights show a dash.
By weekday, AS 410 did best on Wednesday at 82.0% on time and worst on Thursday at 55.6%. Each day rests on about 50 flights, so a gap of 26 points is worth noticing but could still narrow in another year.
Delay causes
Why AS 410 runs late
One category carries most of the weight here. National Airspace System accounts for 45% of the 6,391 delay minutes carriers reported, and the remaining four split what is left. The split is by minutes rather than by flights, so a few very long delays count for as much as many short ones.
- 45%National Airspace System
- 35%Carrier
- 20%Late-arriving aircraft
- 1%Extreme weather
The largest share of delay minutes, 35%, falls under carrier control: crew scheduling, maintenance, fuelling, baggage. Unlike weather, that is a management outcome, and it is the category where the gap between two carriers on the same schedule is genuinely earned. It accounts for 2,206 of the 6,391 delay minutes reported here. The split is drawn from 6,391 delay minutes reported on AS 410.
Cancellations are rare at 0.85%, below the national 1.81% and low enough to earn the plus on the grade. Roughly one flight in 100 is called off; the risk here is arriving late, not not arriving.
Connections and routes
What a delay on this flight costs
For anyone connecting, the number to weigh is not the on-time rate but the tail behind it. 9.8% of arrivals land a full hour or more behind schedule, against 8.1% nationally. A 45-minute layover does not survive that, and no amount of walking quickly changes it. Ninety minutes is the honest minimum here, and two hours if the onward flight is on a separate ticket.
At 1,721 miles this is transcontinental flying, and long routes get a quiet structural advantage. Scheduled block time on a flight this length carries more padding in absolute minutes, so a twenty-minute late departure often still becomes an on-time arrival. Read the on-time rate here as slightly flattering next to a short-haul route with the same operational quality.
The same number turns up on one other city pair in the data, including SEA to SFO (5), but none flew often enough under AS 410 to report a rate for. Carriers move flight numbers between routes, so the figures on this page apply to SEA to ORD only.
One caution: this is a thin sample. 353 flights over twelve months is enough to clear this site's floor but not enough to pin the rate down tightly, and a single bad week moves it by more than a point. Treat the grade as a rough reading.
What to do with this
Booking AS 410
For a booking, AS 410 is one of the weaker ways to fly SEA to ORD: 7 points below the route as a whole. If the schedule allows, compare it with the other departures listed on the route page before settling on this one.
Related
Where to go next
- SEA to ORD, every carrier and departure
- ORD to SEA, the return direction
- United Airlines 747 on the same route83.2%
- Delta Air Lines 2108 on the same route75.9%
- Alaska Airlines 538 on the same route78.4%
- Delta Air Lines 2055 on the same route84.4%
- American Airlines 2398 on the same route62.4%
- Seattle-Tacoma International (SEA) delay statistics
- Chicago O'Hare International (ORD) delay statistics
- Alaska Airlines on-time record
- Every Alaska Airlines flight number with a record
- The most and least reliable flight numbers in the US
- The best time of day to fly, according to 7.04 million flight records
A flight number here means Alaska Airlines’s own number as it reports to the DOT. How the figures are computed is on the methodology page.
Source: US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics, on-time performance data, July 2025 to June 2026. Last updated 15 September 2026; recomputed monthly. How this data is collected.